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The Demand Side vs. the Supply Side in the Analysis of Employment: The Potential for the Use of 'Employment Multipliers'

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  • Paolo Piacentini

Abstract

La recente riforma del diritto del lavoro in Francia, approvata con forte opposizione, e il "Jobs Act" italiano del 2014 appaiono essere fattispecie tardive di applicazione delle politiche di attivazione orientate all'offerta, che traggono ispirazione dai modelli "nairuviani" concepiti nel contesto della Gran Bretagna di Margaret Thatcher. Questo, mentre la rilevanza dei moltiplicatori "keynesiani", nella considerazione degli andamenti della domanda finale e dell'impatto della politica fiscale, viene oggi ammessa anche da parte di posizioni non-radicali all'interno delle sedi internazionali di ricerca macroeconomica. Nell'impianto keynesiano, il fabbisogno di manodopera, in un'economia che opera al di sotto del pieno impiego delle risorse, si ricava semplicemente come una domanda "derivata" dal volume della domanda aggregata "finale". La considerazione, solo in apparenza banale, per cui "le funzioni di produzione di breve termine" dovrebbero essere lette in senso "inverso", in particolare nel contesto di economie in ristagno, non appare essere stata ancora sufficientemente incorporata nell'attuale dibattito di una ricerca specializzata sul lavoro. Il "moltiplicatore dell'occupazione", concepito da Kahn, ha rappresentato il contributo originale e la fonte di ispirazione per il più noto moltiplicatore keynesiano del "reddito"; i due moltiplicatori sono facilmente ricavabili uno dall'altro, date le ipotesi di proporzionalità, influenzate da produttività e orario di lavoro. In questa occasione riproporrò e aggiornerò elaborazioni in merito, ispirate a un mio precedente lavoro, nella convinzione che il concetto e i metodi possano suscitare oggi un rinnovato interesse. Il saggio include, come esempio di applicazione, un semplice esercizio relativo all'andamento differenziale della ripresa occupazionale negli USA e nella zona euro all'indomani della "Grande Recessione".

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  • Paolo Piacentini, 2018. "The Demand Side vs. the Supply Side in the Analysis of Employment: The Potential for the Use of 'Employment Multipliers'," Economia & lavoro, Carocci editore, issue 1, pages 105-120.
    • Handle: RePEc:caq:j950ix:doi:10.7384/90363:y:2018:i:1:p:105-120
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