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Contrôle des activités illégales en présence d'un biais d'optimisme

Author

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  • Nicolas Jacquemet
  • Jean-Louis Rullière
  • Isabelle Vialle

Abstract

Although expensive, monitoring is the most efficient mean to repress a criminal activity. This is typically included in economic models of crime thanks to a probability of detection, and only based on risk aversion. According to recent results in psychology literature, the perception of this probability can however be specific to each individual. This paper experimentally investigates the existence of such errors in probabilities forecasts, often labelled ?optimism bias?. The experiment relies on choices between a no risky (legal) activity and an illegal activity ? randomly penalized by a fine. The experimental treatments assess whether the way the monitoring policy is announced can affect the optimism bias. The results provide a guide into costless devices to undermine illegal activities, grounded on an idiosyncratic perception of risk. Classification JEL : C91, C92, D82, H21, H26

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Jacquemet & Jean-Louis Rullière & Isabelle Vialle, 2007. "Contrôle des activités illégales en présence d'un biais d'optimisme," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 58(3), pages 555-564.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_583_0555
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fang, Hanming & Moscarini, Giuseppe, 2005. "Morale hazard," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 749-777, May.
    2. Bruno Biais & Denis Hilton & Karine Mazurier & Sébastien Pouget, 2005. "Judgemental Overconfidence, Self-Monitoring, and Trading Performance in an Experimental Financial Market," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(2), pages 287-312.
    3. Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
    4. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Roland Bénabou & Jean Tirole, 2005. "Self-Confidence and Personal Motivation," International Economic Association Series, in: Bina Agarwal & Alessandro Vercelli (ed.), Psychology, Rationality and Economic Behaviour, chapter 2, pages 19-57, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2005. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects: New Data without Order Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 902-912, June.
    7. Erik Hoelzl & Aldo Rustichini, 2005. "Overconfident: Do You Put Your Money On It?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(503), pages 305-318, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2005. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects: New Data without Order Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 902-912, June.
    2. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00746617 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance

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