Analysing the consequences of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on the agricultural economies of China, Australia and New Zealand

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement is an important free trade agreement in the Asia Pacific region. The implementation of RCEP is greatly significant for ensuring the effective supply of agricultural products to member states. On the basis of the analysis of the agricultural product trade structure among China, Australia and New Zealand since 2000, we summarise in this article the potential consequences of tariff reduction for the agricultural products among the three countries under the RCEP framework. The Global Trade Analysis Project model has been used to analyse the effects of RCEP on the macroeconomic indicators, agricultural products trade and domestic agricultural output of the three countries. The research findings indicate that agricultural product trade among the three countries has grown rapidly since 2000. The results of the Global Trade Analysis Project simulations revealed that implementing RCEP will foster macroeconomic growth in the three countries. China's imports of beef and dairy products and wheat from Australia and New Zealand will substantially increase, and China's domestic production of this agricultural sector will decrease. Furthermore, India's potential participation in RCEP will further affect China's imports and exports of grain. These findings could guide the policymakers in the three countries in designing future agricultural production and trade strategies according to the different scenarios of international trade among the three countries and considering the potential of India joining.