IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/caa/jnlage/v69y2023i10id121-2023-agricecon.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impacts of the war on prices of Ukrainian wheat

Author

Listed:
  • Lenka Novotná

    (Institute of Technology and Business in České Budějovice, České Budějovice, Czech Republic)

  • Zuzana Rowland

    (Institute of Technology and Business in České Budějovice, České Budějovice, Czech Republic)

  • Svatopluk Janek

    (Institute of Technology and Business in České Budějovice, České Budějovice, Czech Republic)

Abstract

The Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict significantly affected wheat production and its export from Ukraine, mainly during the war outbreak. Since both countries rank among the major global wheat producers, the warfare disrupted wheat supplies, hastily pushing the prices. Based on the analysed data, we carried out research using multilayer perceptron networks. The findings suggest the biggest price increase between February and March 2022, witnessing wheat prices at about 1 400 USD per t. We predict a decline to the pre-war values until the end of 2025, estimating its rates between 600 USD and 800 USD per t. This price slump may involve signing an agreement on unblocking Ukrainian seaports, which would restore wheat exports. Yet, our survey is confined to historical data, which do not suggest any dramatic event that would alarmingly sway wheat prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Lenka Novotná & Zuzana Rowland & Svatopluk Janek, 2023. "Impacts of the war on prices of Ukrainian wheat," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 69(10), pages 404-415.
    • Handle: RePEc:caa:jnlage:v:69:y:2023:i:10:id:121-2023-agricecon
    DOI: 10.17221/121/2023-AGRICECON
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/doi/10.17221/121/2023-AGRICECON.html
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: http://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/doi/10.17221/121/2023-AGRICECON.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17221/121/2023-AGRICECON?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wiktor Halecki & Dawid Bedla, 2022. "Global Wheat Production and Threats to Supply Chains in a Volatile Climate Change and Energy Crisis," Resources, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Marek Vochozka & Jakub Horák & Petr Šuleř, 2019. "Equalizing Seasonal Time Series Using Artificial Neural Networks in Predicting the Euro–Yuan Exchange Rate," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-17, April.
    3. Petra Hellegers, 2022. "Food security vulnerability due to trade dependencies on Russia and Ukraine," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 14(6), pages 1503-1510, December.
    4. Inna Irtyshcheva & Iryna Kramarenko & Ihor Sirenko, 2022. "The Economy Of War And Postwar Economic Development: World And Ukrainian Realities," Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, Publishing house "Baltija Publishing", vol. 8(2).
    5. Florian Schierhorn & Max Hofmann & Taras Gagalyuk & Igor Ostapchuk & Daniel Müller, 2021. "Machine learning reveals complex effects of climatic means and weather extremes on wheat yields during different plant developmental stages," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 1-19, December.
    6. Will Martin & Nicholas Minot, 2022. "The impacts of price insulation on world wheat markets during the 2022 food price crisis," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(4), pages 753-774, October.
    7. Fenghe, Zhang, 2020. "Analysis of the current situation of agricultural trade development between China and Ukraine," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 6(1), March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stanislav Yugay & Linde Götz & Miranda Svanidze, 2024. "Impact of the Ruble exchange rate regime and Russia's war in Ukraine on wheat prices in Russia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 55(2), pages 384-411, March.
    2. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Qian, Anqi, 2024. "Regional differences, dynamic evolution, and obstacle factors of cultivated land ecological security in China," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    3. Jayson Beckman & Noé J. Nava & Angelica S. Williams & Steven Zahniser, 2024. "Land competition and welfare effects from Mexico's proposal to ban genetically engineered corn," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(3), pages 1300-1325, May.
    4. Eltazarov, Sarvarbek, 2023. "The potential of satellite-based data to detect weather extremes and crop yield variation for hedging agricultural weather risks in Central Asia and Mongolia: Three essays," EconStor Theses, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 286134, September.
    5. Fang Yin & Zhanli Sun & Liangzhi You & Daniel Müller, 2024. "Determinants of changes in harvested area and yields of major crops in China," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 16(2), pages 339-351, April.
    6. Caitriona Dowd & Samuel S. Polzin & Kelsey Gleason & Rebecca Yang & Pranay Narang & Ronak Patel, 2024. "Conflict's impacts on food systems: Mapping available evidence of interactions," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(4), pages 2152-2171, May.
    7. Chunyan Li & Qi Ban & Lanqing Ge & Liwen Qi & Chenchen Fan, 2024. "The Relationship between Geographical Indication Products and Farmers’ Incomes Based on Meta-Analysis," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-17, May.
    8. Florian Humpenöder & Alexander Popp & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Anton Orlov & Michael Gregory Windisch & Inga Menke & Julia Pongratz & Felix Havermann & Wim Thiery & Fei Luo & Patrick v. Jeetze & J, 2022. "Overcoming global inequality is critical for land-based mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    9. Mariusz Hamulczuk & Karolina Pawlak & Joanna Stefańczyk & Jarosław Gołębiewski, 2023. "Agri-Food Supply and Retail Food Prices during the Russia–Ukraine Conflict’s Early Stage: Implications for Food Security," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-17, November.
    10. Rogna, Marco, 2023. "The Effects of Rising Prices on Corn Production in Western African Countries," 97th Annual Conference, March 27-29, 2023, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 334549, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    11. Wei, Jianlimin & Chen, Wei-Qiang & Chen, Chuke & Huang, Yuanyi & Tang, Linbin, 2024. "Evaluating the bulk commodities supply risk from the perspective of physical trade," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    12. Soojung Ahn & Dongin Kim & Sandro Steinbach, 2023. "The impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on grain and oilseed trade," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 291-299, January.
    13. Haoran Zhang & Limin Jiao & Cai Li & Zhongci Deng & Zhen Wang & Qiqi Jia & Xihong Lian & Yaolin Liu & Yuanchao Hu, 2024. "Global environmental impacts of food system from regional shock: Russia-Ukraine war as an example," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
    14. Paweł Boczar & Lucyna Błażejczyk-Majka, 2024. "Economic Efficiency versus Energy Efficiency of Selected Crops in EU Farms," Resources, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-15, September.
    15. Escalante, Luis & Mamboundou, Pierre, 2024. "Adapting fiscal strategies to energy and food price shocks in Portugal," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 651-665.
    16. Daniel Hyun & Jacky Lee, 2023. "Variations in Pass-Through from Global Agricultural Commodity Prices to Domestic Food Inflation," Discussion Papers 2023-24, Bank of Canada.
    17. Algirdas Justinas Staugaitis & Bernardas Vaznonis, 2022. "Financial Speculation Impact on Agricultural and Other Commodity Return Volatility: Implications for Sustainable Development and Food Security," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-27, November.
    18. Jing Fu & Guangji Tong, 2024. "Status of Sino–Russian Trade in Agricultural Products: Dual Consideration Based on Characteristics and Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-20, January.
    19. Olexandr Yemelyanov & Tetyana Petrushka & Lilia Lesyk & Anatolii Havryliak & Nataliya Yanevych & Oksana Kurylo & Volodymyr Bodakovskyy & Iryna Skoropad & Taras Danylovych & Kateryna Petrushka, 2023. "Assessing the Sustainability of the Consumption of Agricultural Products with Regard to a Possible Reduction in Its Imports: The Case of Countries That Import Corn and Wheat," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-29, June.
    20. Koliadenko, Svitlana & Andreichenko, Andrii & Galperina, Liubov & Minenko, Sofiia & Kovylina, Maria, 2020. "Analysis and forecasting of Ukrainian agrarian exports to the EU countries," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 6(3), September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:caa:jnlage:v:69:y:2023:i:10:id:121-2023-agricecon. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ivo Andrle (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cazv.cz/en/home/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.