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Integrated assessment of crop productivity based on the food supply forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Waldemar BOJAR

    (Faculty of Management, University of Science and Technology, Bydgoszcz, Poland)

  • Leszek KNOPIK

    (Faculty of Management, University of Science and Technology, Bydgoszcz, Poland)

  • Jacek ŻARSKI

    (Faculty of Agriculture and Biotechnology, University of Science and Technology, Bydgoszcz, Poland)

  • Renata KUŚMIEREK-TOMASZEWSKA

    (Faculty of Agriculture and Biotechnology, University of Science and Technology, Bydgoszcz, Poland)

Abstract

Climate change scenarios suggest that long periods without rainfall will occur in the future often causing instability of the agricultural products market. The aim of the research was to build a model describing the amount of precipitation and droughts for forecasting crop yields in the future. In this study, the authors analysed a non-standard mixture of gamma and one point distributions as the model of rainfall. On the basis of the rainfall data, one can estimate the parameters of the distribution. The parameter estimators were constructed using the method of the maximum likelihood. The obtained rainfall data allow confirming the hypothesis of the adequacy of the proposed rainfall models. Long series of droughts allow one to determine the probabilities of adverse phenomena in agriculture. Based on the model, the yields of barley in the years 2030 and 2050 were forecasted which can be used for the assessment of other crops productivity. The results obtained with this approach can be used to predict decreases in agricultural production caused by the prospective rainfall shortages. This will enable decision makers to shape effective agricultural policies in order to learn how to balance the food supplies and demands through an appropriate management of the stored raw food materials and the import/export policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Waldemar BOJAR & Leszek KNOPIK & Jacek ŻARSKI & Renata KUŚMIEREK-TOMASZEWSKA, 2015. "Integrated assessment of crop productivity based on the food supply forecasting," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 61(11), pages 502-510.
    • Handle: RePEc:caa:jnlage:v:61:y:2015:i:11:id:159-2014-agricecon
    DOI: 10.17221/159/2014-AGRICECON
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Detlef P. van Vuuren & Steve J. Smith & Keywan Riahi, 2010. "Downscaling socioeconomic and emissions scenarios for global environmental change research: a review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(3), pages 393-404, May.
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    5. Britz, Wolfgang, 2008. "Automated model linkages: the example of CAPRI," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 57(08), pages 1-5.
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