IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/caa/jnlage/v61y2015i11id159-2014-agricecon.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Integrated assessment of crop productivity based on the food supply forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Waldemar BOJAR

    (Faculty of Management, University of Science and Technology, Bydgoszcz, Poland)

  • Leszek KNOPIK

    (Faculty of Management, University of Science and Technology, Bydgoszcz, Poland)

  • Jacek ŻARSKI

    (Faculty of Agriculture and Biotechnology, University of Science and Technology, Bydgoszcz, Poland)

  • Renata KUŚMIEREK-TOMASZEWSKA

    (Faculty of Agriculture and Biotechnology, University of Science and Technology, Bydgoszcz, Poland)

Abstract

Climate change scenarios suggest that long periods without rainfall will occur in the future often causing instability of the agricultural products market. The aim of the research was to build a model describing the amount of precipitation and droughts for forecasting crop yields in the future. In this study, the authors analysed a non-standard mixture of gamma and one point distributions as the model of rainfall. On the basis of the rainfall data, one can estimate the parameters of the distribution. The parameter estimators were constructed using the method of the maximum likelihood. The obtained rainfall data allow confirming the hypothesis of the adequacy of the proposed rainfall models. Long series of droughts allow one to determine the probabilities of adverse phenomena in agriculture. Based on the model, the yields of barley in the years 2030 and 2050 were forecasted which can be used for the assessment of other crops productivity. The results obtained with this approach can be used to predict decreases in agricultural production caused by the prospective rainfall shortages. This will enable decision makers to shape effective agricultural policies in order to learn how to balance the food supplies and demands through an appropriate management of the stored raw food materials and the import/export policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Waldemar BOJAR & Leszek KNOPIK & Jacek ŻARSKI & Renata KUŚMIEREK-TOMASZEWSKA, 2015. "Integrated assessment of crop productivity based on the food supply forecasting," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 61(11), pages 502-510.
    • Handle: RePEc:caa:jnlage:v:61:y:2015:i:11:id:159-2014-agricecon
    DOI: 10.17221/159/2014-AGRICECON
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/doi/10.17221/159/2014-AGRICECON.html
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: http://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/doi/10.17221/159/2014-AGRICECON.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17221/159/2014-AGRICECON?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Detlef P. van Vuuren & Steve J. Smith & Keywan Riahi, 2010. "Downscaling socioeconomic and emissions scenarios for global environmental change research: a review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(3), pages 393-404, May.
    2. Holden, Nicholas M. & Brereton, Anthony J., 2006. "Adaptation of water and nitrogen management of spring barley and potato as a response to possible climate change in Ireland," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 297-317, April.
    3. Stéphane Hallegatte & Fanny Henriet & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2011. "The economics of climate change impacts and policy benefits at city scale: a conceptual framework," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 51-87, January.
    4. Josef TAUŠER & Radek ČAJKA, 2014. "Weather derivatives and hedging the weather risks," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 60(7), pages 309-313.
    5. Britz, Wolfgang, 2008. "Automated model linkages: the example of CAPRI," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 57(08), pages 1-5.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zvirgzdiņš Jānis & Plotka Kaspars & Geipele Sanda, 2018. "Eco-Economics in Cities and Rural Areas," Baltic Journal of Real Estate Economics and Construction Management, Sciendo, vol. 6(1), pages 88-99, July.
    2. Nicola Ranger & Stéphane Hallegatte & Sumana Bhattacharya & Murthy Bachu & Satya Priya & K. Dhore & Farhat Rafique & P. Mathur & Nicolas Naville & Fanny Henriet & Celine Herweijer & Sanjib Pohit & Jan, 2011. "An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 139-167, January.
    3. Mittenzwei, Klaus & Britz, Wolfgang & Wieck, Christine, 2012. "Studying the effects of domestic support provisions on global agricultural trade: WTO and OECD policy indicators in the CAPRI model," Conference papers 332212, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Deppermann, A. & Grethe, H. & Offermann, F., 2011. "Effekte einer EU-Agrarmarktliberalisierung auf Betriebsebene: Simulationen anhand eines europäischen Agrarsektormodells und eines Angebotsmodells für den deutschen Agrarsektor," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 46, March.
    5. Sferra, Fabio & Krapp, Mario & Roming, Niklas & Schaeffer, Michiel & Malik, Aman & Hare, Bill & Brecha, Robert, 2019. "Towards optimal 1.5° and 2 °C emission pathways for individual countries: A Finland case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    6. Elmar Kriegler & Brian-C O'Neill & Stéphane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Richard-H Moss & Robert Lempert & Thomas J Wilbanks, 2010. "Socio-economic Scenario Development for Climate Change Analysis," CIRED Working Papers hal-00866437, HAL.
    7. Kristie S. Gutierrez & Catherine E. LePrevost, 2016. "Climate Justice in Rural Southeastern United States: A Review of Climate Change Impacts and Effects on Human Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-21, February.
    8. Johnson, Katie & Breil, Margaretha, 2012. "Conceptualizing Urban Adaptation to Climate Change Findings from an Applied Adaptation Assessment Framework," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 127429, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    9. Ruth Delzeit & Robert Beach & Ruben Bibas & Wolfgang Britz & Jean Chateau & Florian Freund & Julien Lefevre & Franziska Schuenemann & Timothy Sulser & Hugo Valin & Bas van Ruijven & Matthias Weitzel &, 2020. "Linking Global CGE Models with Sectoral Models to Generate Baseline Scenarios: Approaches, Challenges, and Opportunities," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 162-195, June.
    10. María Blanco & Benjamin Van Doorslaer & Wolfgang Britz & Heinz-Peter Witzke, 2012. "Exploring the feasibility of integrating water issues into the CAPRI model," JRC Research Reports JRC77058, Joint Research Centre.
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7780 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Balazs Pager & Zsuzsanna Zsibókb, 2020. "Regionalizing National-Level Growth Projections in the Visegrad Countries – The Issue Of Ex-Post Rescaling," Romanian Journal of Regional Science, Romanian Regional Science Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-24, JUNE.
    13. Stéphane Hallegatte & Nicola Ranger & Olivier Mestre & Patrice Dumas & Jan Corfee-Morlot & Celine Herweijer & Robert Wood, 2011. "Assessing climate change impacts, sea level rise and storm surge risk in port cities: a case study on Copenhagen," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 113-137, January.
    14. Haifeng Huang & Tao Wang, 2017. "The Total-Factor Energy Efficiency of Regions in China: Based on Three-Stage SBM Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-20, September.
    15. Philip Camill & Maryellen Hearn & Krista Bahm & Eileen Johnson, 2012. "Using a boundary organization approach to develop a sea level rise and storm surge impact analysis framework for coastal communities in Maine," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 2(2), pages 111-130, June.
    16. Ivana STULEC & Kristina PETLJAK & Tomislav BAKOVIC, 2016. "Effectiveness of weather derivatives as a hedge against the weather risk in agriculture," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 62(8), pages 356-362.
    17. Martin Henseler & Ruth Delzeit & Marcel Adenäuer & Sarah Baum & Peter Kreins, 2020. "Nitrogen Tax and Set-Aside as Greenhouse Gas Abatement Policies Under Global Change Scenarios: A Case Study for Germany," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(2), pages 299-329, July.
    18. Maja KOŽAR & Markus KEMPEN & Wolfgang BRITZ & Emil ERJAVEC, 2012. "Flattening and redistribution of the CAP direct payments for the EU27 regions," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 58(10), pages 443-453.
    19. Mittenzwei, Klaus & Britz, Wolfgang & Wieck, Christine, 2014. "Does the “green box” of the European Union distort global markets?," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 3(01), pages 1-20, April.
    20. Britz, Wolfgang & van Ittersum, Martin K. & Oude Lansink, Alfons G.J.M. & Heckelei, Thomas, 2012. "Tools for Integrated Assessment in Agriculture. State of the Art and Challenges," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 1(2), pages 1-26, August.
    21. Britz, Wolfgang & Delzeit, Ruth, 2013. "The impact of German biogas production on European and global agricultural markets, land use and the environment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1268-1275.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:caa:jnlage:v:61:y:2015:i:11:id:159-2014-agricecon. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ivo Andrle (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cazv.cz/en/home/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.