IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/caa/jnlage/v61y2015i11id159-2014-agricecon.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Integrated assessment of crop productivity based on the food supply forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Waldemar BOJAR

    (Faculty of Management, University of Science and Technology, Bydgoszcz, Poland)

  • Leszek KNOPIK

    (Faculty of Management, University of Science and Technology, Bydgoszcz, Poland)

  • Jacek ŻARSKI

    (Faculty of Agriculture and Biotechnology, University of Science and Technology, Bydgoszcz, Poland)

  • Renata KUŚMIEREK-TOMASZEWSKA

    (Faculty of Agriculture and Biotechnology, University of Science and Technology, Bydgoszcz, Poland)

Abstract

Climate change scenarios suggest that long periods without rainfall will occur in the future often causing instability of the agricultural products market. The aim of the research was to build a model describing the amount of precipitation and droughts for forecasting crop yields in the future. In this study, the authors analysed a non-standard mixture of gamma and one point distributions as the model of rainfall. On the basis of the rainfall data, one can estimate the parameters of the distribution. The parameter estimators were constructed using the method of the maximum likelihood. The obtained rainfall data allow confirming the hypothesis of the adequacy of the proposed rainfall models. Long series of droughts allow one to determine the probabilities of adverse phenomena in agriculture. Based on the model, the yields of barley in the years 2030 and 2050 were forecasted which can be used for the assessment of other crops productivity. The results obtained with this approach can be used to predict decreases in agricultural production caused by the prospective rainfall shortages. This will enable decision makers to shape effective agricultural policies in order to learn how to balance the food supplies and demands through an appropriate management of the stored raw food materials and the import/export policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Waldemar BOJAR & Leszek KNOPIK & Jacek ŻARSKI & Renata KUŚMIEREK-TOMASZEWSKA, 2015. "Integrated assessment of crop productivity based on the food supply forecasting," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 61(11), pages 502-510.
    • Handle: RePEc:caa:jnlage:v:61:y:2015:i:11:id:159-2014-agricecon
    DOI: 10.17221/159/2014-AGRICECON
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/doi/10.17221/159/2014-AGRICECON.html
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: http://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/doi/10.17221/159/2014-AGRICECON.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17221/159/2014-AGRICECON?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Josef TAUŠER & Radek ČAJKA, 2014. "Weather derivatives and hedging the weather risks," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 60(7), pages 309-313.
    2. Stéphane Hallegatte & Fanny Henriet & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2011. "The economics of climate change impacts and policy benefits at city scale: a conceptual framework," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 51-87, January.
    3. Detlef P. van Vuuren & Steve J. Smith & Keywan Riahi, 2010. "Downscaling socioeconomic and emissions scenarios for global environmental change research: a review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(3), pages 393-404, May.
    4. Holden, Nicholas M. & Brereton, Anthony J., 2006. "Adaptation of water and nitrogen management of spring barley and potato as a response to possible climate change in Ireland," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 297-317, April.
    5. Britz, Wolfgang, 2008. "Automated model linkages: the example of CAPRI," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 57(08), pages 1-5.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicola Ranger & Stéphane Hallegatte & Sumana Bhattacharya & Murthy Bachu & Satya Priya & K. Dhore & Farhat Rafique & P. Mathur & Nicolas Naville & Fanny Henriet & Celine Herweijer & Sanjib Pohit & Jan, 2011. "An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 139-167, January.
    2. Mittenzwei, Klaus & Britz, Wolfgang & Wieck, Christine, 2012. "Studying the effects of domestic support provisions on global agricultural trade: WTO and OECD policy indicators in the CAPRI model," Conference papers 332212, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Elmar Kriegler & Brian-C O'Neill & Stéphane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Richard-H Moss & Robert Lempert & Thomas J Wilbanks, 2010. "Socio-economic Scenario Development for Climate Change Analysis," CIRED Working Papers hal-00866437, HAL.
    4. Kristie S. Gutierrez & Catherine E. LePrevost, 2016. "Climate Justice in Rural Southeastern United States: A Review of Climate Change Impacts and Effects on Human Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-21, February.
    5. Johnson, Katie & Breil, Margaretha, 2012. "Conceptualizing Urban Adaptation to Climate Change Findings from an Applied Adaptation Assessment Framework," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 127429, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    6. Bjoern Hagen, 2016. "The Role of Planning in Minimizing the Negative Impacts of Global Climate Change," Urban Planning, Cogitatio Press, vol. 1(3), pages 13-24.
    7. Ruth Delzeit & Roberto Beach & Ruben Bibas & Wolfgang Britz & Jean Chateau & Florian Freund & Julien Lefevre & Franziska Schuenemann & Timothy Sulser & Hugo Valin & Bas van Ruijven & Matthias Weitzel , 2020. "Linking global CGE models with sectoral models to generate baseline scenarios: Approaches, opportunities and pitfalls," Post-Print hal-03128285, HAL.
    8. Monika HARČARIKOVÁ, 2015. "Proposal of new outperformance certificates in agricultural market," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 61(9), pages 400-409.
    9. Yanfang Lyu & Yun Xiang & Dong Wang, 2023. "Evaluating Indirect Economic Losses from Flooding Using Input–Output Analysis: An Application to China’s Jiangxi Province," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-17, March.
    10. Stéphane Hallegatte & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2011. "Understanding climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation at city scale: an introduction," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 1-12, January.
    11. Himics, Mihaly & Britz, Wolfgang, 2013. "Trade Diversion Effects of Preferential Trade Agreements Under Tariff Rate Quota Regimes," 135th Seminar, August 28-30, 2013, Belgrade, Serbia 160383, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Gocht, Alexander & Britz, Wolfgang & Ciaian, Pavel & Gomez y Paloma, Sergio, 2011. "EU-wide Distributional Effects of EU Direct Payments Harmonization analyzed with CAPRI," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114624, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    13. Rentschler, Jun E., 2013. "Why resilience matters - the poverty impacts of disasters," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6699, The World Bank.
    14. Hirte, Georg & Nitzsche, Eric & Tscharaktschiew, Stefan, 2018. "Optimal adaptation in cities," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 147-169.
    15. Lehmann, Paul & Brenck, Miriam & Gebhardt, Oliver & Schaller, Sven & Süßbauer, Elisabeth, 2012. "Understanding barriers and opportunities for adaptation planning in cities," UFZ Discussion Papers 19/2012, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Division of Social Sciences (ÖKUS).
    16. Gocht, Alexander & Britz, Wolfgang, 2011. "EU-wide farm type supply models in CAPRI--How to consistently disaggregate sector models into farm type models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 146-167, January.
    17. Pasimeni, Maria Rita & Petrosillo, Irene & Aretano, Roberta & Semeraro, Teodoro & De Marco, Antonella & Zaccarelli, Nicola & Zurlini, Giovanni, 2014. "Scales, strategies and actions for effective energy planning: A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 165-174.
    18. Heuson, Clemens & Gawel, Erik & Gebhardt, Oliver & Hansjürgens, Bernd & Lehmann, Paul & Meyer, Volker & Schwarze, Reimund, 2012. "Ökonomische Grundfragen der Klimaanpassung: Umrisse eines neuen Forschungsprogramms," UFZ Reports 02/2012, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ).
    19. Nina Graveline & Marine Gremont, 2017. "Measuring and understanding the microeconomic resilience of businesses to lifeline service interruptions due to natural disasters," Post-Print hal-01631780, HAL.
    20. Blanco, María & Ramos, Fabien & Van Doorslaer, Benjamin & Martínez, Pilar & Fumagalli, Davide & Ceglar, Andrej & Fernández, Francisco J., 2017. "Climate change impacts on EU agriculture: A regionalized perspective taking into account market-driven adjustments," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 52-66.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:caa:jnlage:v:61:y:2015:i:11:id:159-2014-agricecon. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ivo Andrle (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cazv.cz/en/home/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.