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On convergence of forecasts in prediction markets

Author

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  • Nina Badulina
  • Dmitry Shatilovich
  • Mikhail Zhitlukhin

Abstract

We propose a dynamic model of a prediction market in which agents predict the values of a sequence of random vectors. The main result shows that if there are agents who make correct (or asymptotically correct) next-period forecasts, then the aggregated market forecasts converge to the next-period conditional expectations of the random vectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Nina Badulina & Dmitry Shatilovich & Mikhail Zhitlukhin, 2024. "On convergence of forecasts in prediction markets," Papers 2402.16345, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2402.16345
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mikhail Zhitlukhin, 2022. "A continuous-time asset market game with short-lived assets," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 587-630, July.
    2. Christian Franz Horn & Bjoern Sven Ivens & Michael Ohneberg & Alexander Brem, 2014. "Ideas Markets: Prediction Markets – A literature review 2014," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 8(2), pages 89-126.
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    4. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice," NBER Working Papers 12083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David, 1992. "Evolution and market behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 9-40, October.
    6. Rabah Amir & Igor Evstigneev & Klaus Schenk-Hoppé, 2013. "Asset market games of survival: a synthesis of evolutionary and dynamic games," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 121-144, May.
    7. Georgios Tziralis & Ilias Tatsiopoulos, 2007. "Prediction Markets: An Extended Literature Review," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 1(1), pages 75-91, February.
    8. Igor V. Evstigneev & Thorsten Hens & Klaus Reiner Schenk‐Hoppé, 2002. "Market Selection Of Financial Trading Strategies: Global Stability," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 329-339, October.
    9. Paul W. Rhode & Koleman S. Strumpf, 2004. "Historical Presidential Betting Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 127-141, Spring.
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