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Is There Such A Thing As A Safe Bet ?

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  • Nicos Zafiris

Abstract

This paper is an attempt to set out a betting strategy appropriate to events with several possible final outcomes which are a) unambiguously defined and b) likely to show fluctuations in the respective probabilities as the event unfolds. It is then shown that, by placing bets of appropriate magnitude and at appropriate times, such as to take advantage of changing odds, it is possible to secure a certain profit, generally in advance of the outcome becoming known, and irrespective of which of the possible outcomes finally materialises. Furthermore, the bettor should enjoy the reassurance of an improving Net Expected Value (NEV), as the event progresses. The procedure, which may be viewed as a multiple hedging one, is suited to in running betting on individual match events, as well as on protracted seasonal events (such as a league championship in football or other sport). The principal requirement is that there be a reasonable expectation of a large amount of alternation in the relative prospects of at least two contenders. The procedure is outlined in general terms and illustrated with reference to real life football matches and league competitions from the 2015/6 season. It is seen to be profitable under the specified conditions. Apparent advantages in betting on draws and on favourites are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicos Zafiris, 2016. "Is There Such A Thing As A Safe Bet ?," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 10(1), pages 40-65.
    • Handle: RePEc:buc:jgbeco:v:10:y:2016:i:1:p:40-65
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    File URL: http://ubplj.org/index.php/jgbe/article/view/1159
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ioannis Asimakopoulos & John Goddard, 2004. "Forecasting football results and the efficiency of fixed-odds betting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 51-66.
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    9. Nicos Zafiris, 2014. "When is a multiple bet better than a single ?," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 8(2), pages 1-15.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Probability Swings; Net Expected Value; Certainty; Hedging; Over round; Football;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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