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A state space approach to measuring the impact of sovereign and credit risk on interest rate convergence in the euro area

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  • Arnold, Ivo J.M.
  • van Ewijk, Saskia E.

Abstract

This paper employs a time-varying parameter state space model to explore the impact of the crisis on bank retail rates in the euro area. We show that σ-convergence in interest rates has been adversely affected by the crisis and quantify the role of sovereign and credit risk as two alternative explanations for the increase in financial fragmentation. A key finding is that the heterogeneity in sovereign risk across member states accounts for a sizable part of the increase in the cross-sectional dispersion of various lending and deposit rates. In contrast, the impact of the increased heterogeneity in credit risk on bank retail rates is negligible. Our results suggest that efforts to reduce sovereign tensions – as exemplified by the ECB's OMT program - may help to reduce financial fragmentation.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnold, Ivo J.M. & van Ewijk, Saskia E., 2014. "A state space approach to measuring the impact of sovereign and credit risk on interest rate convergence in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 340-357.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:49:y:2014:i:pb:p:340-357
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.04.005
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    9. Papadamou, Stephanos & Markopoulos, Thomas, 2018. "Interest rate pass through in a Markov-switching Vector Autoregression model: Evidence from Greek retail bank interest rates," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 48-60.
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    13. Theobald, Thomas & Tober, Silke, 2020. "Euro area sovereign yield spreads as determinants of private sector borrowing costs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 27-37.
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    15. B. De Backer, 2015. "Decomposition of the dynamics of sovereign yield spreads in the euro area," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 54-75, June.
    16. Kotz Hans-Helmut & Semmler Willi & Tahri Ibrahim, 2018. "Financial fragmentation and the monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: a smooth transition VAR approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(5), pages 1-19, December.
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    18. G. Arghyrou, Michael & Gadea, Maria-Dolores & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2024. "Private bank deposits and macro/fiscal risk in the euro-area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
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    22. Illes, Anamaria & Lombardi, Marco J. & Mizen, Paul, 2019. "The divergence of bank lending rates from policy rates after the financial crisis: The role of bank funding costs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 117-141.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank retail rates; σ-Convergence; Sovereign risk; Credit risk; State space model; E43; G21; H63;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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