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Intervention Model for Analyzing the Lebanese Tourism Sector

Author

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  • Bassil Charbel

    (Notre Dame University, P.O Box 72 Zouk Mikael, Zouk Mosbeh, Lebanon)

Abstract

This paper investigates changes in the number of tourists who visited Lebanon between 1995 and 2010 and its consequences on the economy. We consider different seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average intervention models in which the interventions take the form of a permanent shock, a temporary shock, or a gradual changing shock. The intervention dates are endogenously determined using Lumsdaine–Papell unit root test with two breaks. Using monthly data from January 1995 to December 2010, we find strong evidence in favor of a stationary process with two structural breaks. The two breaks identified correspond to November 1997 and January 2007, respectively. We also find that the first break is temporary while the second is gradually changing. The number of tourists dropped by 55% in November 1997 which costs the tourism sector a minimum loss of around 19 billion Lebanese Pound. After January 2007, the number of tourists has increased gradually by 0.7%.

Suggested Citation

  • Bassil Charbel, 2013. "Intervention Model for Analyzing the Lebanese Tourism Sector," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-15, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:rmeecf:v:8:y:2013:i:3:p:1-15:n:3
    DOI: 10.1515/rmeef-2012-0022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Konstantinos Drakos & Ali M. Kutan, 2003. "Regional Effects of Terrorism on Tourism in Three Mediterranean Countries," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 47(5), pages 621-641, October.
    2. Eric Neumayer, 2004. "The Impact of Political Violence on Tourism," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 48(2), pages 259-281, April.
    3. Dunkley, Ria & Morgan, Nigel & Westwood, Sheena, 2011. "Visiting the trenches: Exploring meanings and motivations in battlefield tourism," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 860-868.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Ghassan Dibeh & Ali Fakih & Walid Marrouch, 2020. "Tourism–growth nexus under duress: Lebanon during the Syrian crisis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(3), pages 353-370, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    unit root; unit root with breaks; ARMA; intervention models; Box–Jenkins methodology;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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