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The Effect of Terrorism on Tourism Demand in the Middle East

Author

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  • Bassil Charbel

    (Notre Dame University – Louaize, P.O. Box 72 Zouk Mikael, Lebanon)

Abstract

This paper uses a seemingly unrelated regression model (SUR) to test the individual effects of domestic and transnational terrorism on tourism demand to Lebanon, Turkey and Israel over the period 1995–2007. Tourism demand is measured by the logarithm of the number of arrivals to each country. Moreover, this paper tests whether tourism depends on the magnitude of the terrorist attacks by disaggregating terrorism into three levels of intensity – low, medium and high. The results show significant own and spillover effects for domestic and transnational terrorism on tourism demand to each of the three selected countries. In addition, the results show that the effect of terrorism on tourism depends on the intensities of the terrorist attacks.

Suggested Citation

  • Bassil Charbel, 2014. "The Effect of Terrorism on Tourism Demand in the Middle East," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 669-684, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:pepspp:v:20:y:2014:i:4:p:16:n:7
    DOI: 10.1515/peps-2014-0032
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandier, 2011. "The Adverse Effect of Transnational and Domestic Terrorism on Growth in Africa," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 48(3), pages 355-371, May.
    2. Walter Enders & Todd Sandler & Gerald F. Parise, 1992. "An Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Terrorism on Tourism," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 531-554, November.
    3. Mete Feridun, 2011. "Impact of terrorism on tourism in Turkey: empirical evidence from Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(24), pages 3349-3354.
    4. Konstantinos Drakos & Ali M. Kutan, 2003. "Regional Effects of Terrorism on Tourism in Three Mediterranean Countries," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 47(5), pages 621-641, October.
    5. Eric Neumayer, 2004. "The Impact of Political Violence on Tourism," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 48(2), pages 259-281, April.
    6. Mehmet Yaya, 2009. "Terrorism And Tourism: The Case Of Turkey," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 477-497.
    7. Walter Enders & Todd Sandler & Khusrav Gaibulloev, 2011. "Domestic Versus Transnational Terrorism: Data, Decomposition, and Dynamics," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 48(3), pages 319-337, May.
    8. repec:bla:kyklos:v:45:y:1992:i:4:p:531-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Rafael Llorca-Vivero, 2008. "Terrorism And International Tourism: New Evidence," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 169-188.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Maja Nikšić Radić & Daniel Dragičević & Marina Barkiđija Sotošek, 2019. "Causality between Terrorism and FDI in Tourism: Evidence from Panel Data," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-19, May.
    2. Corbet, Shaen & O’Connell, John F. & Efthymiou, Marina & Guiomard, Cathal & Lucey, Brian, 2019. "The impact of terrorism on European tourism," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1-17.
    3. Seabra, Claudia & Reis, Pedro & Abrantes, José Luís, 2020. "The influence of terrorism in tourism arrivals: A longitudinal approach in a Mediterranean country," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Jamil Shah & Zilakat Khan Malik & Umar Hayat, 2020. "The Dynamic Effects of Terrorism on Tourism: A Bound Testing Co-Integration Approach," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 16(1), pages 44-57.
    5. Ali Asgary & Ali Ihsan Ozdemir, 2020. "Global risks and tourism industry in Turkey," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 54(5), pages 1513-1536, December.
    6. Jamil Shah & Zilakat Khan Malik & Umar Hayat, 2020. "The Dynamic Effects of Terrorism on Tourism: A Bound Testing Co-Integration Approach," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 16(1), pages 16-14.
    7. Economou Athina & Kollias Christos, 2015. "Terrorism and Political Self-Placement in European Union Countries," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 217-238, April.
    8. Nowak, Anna, 2018. "You failed! Government satisfaction and party preferences facing Islamist terrorism," CIW Discussion Papers 6/2018, University of Münster, Center for Interdisciplinary Economics (CIW).
    9. Rufei Zhang & Haizhen Zhang & Qingzhu Fan & Wang Gao & Xue Luo & Shixiong Yang, 2022. "Partisan Conflict, National Security Policy Uncertainty and Tourism," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-22, August.
    10. Ahmed Muhamad Omer & Mehmet Yeşiltaş, 2020. "“Modeling the impact of wars and terrorism on tourism demand in Kurdistan region of Iraq”," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 19(3), pages 301-322, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    transnational and domestic terrorism; spillover effects; tourism; SUR model; inferential statistics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • N15 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Asia including Middle East

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