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Computing VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation and adaptive unconstrained importance sampling

Author

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  • Bardou O.

    (Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles aléatoires, UMR 7599, Université Pierre et Marie Curie and GDF Suez Research and Innovation Department, France. Email: olivier-aj.bardou@gdfsuez.com)

  • Frikha N.

    (Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles aléatoires, UMR 7599, Université Pierre et Marie Curie and GDF Suez Research and Innovation Department, France. Email: noufel-externe.frikha@gdfsuez.com)

  • Pagès G.

    (Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles aléatoires, UMR 7599, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, France. Email: gilles.pages@upmc.fr)

Abstract

Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional-Value-at-Risk (CVaR) are two risk measures which are widely used in the practice of risk management. This paper deals with the problem of estimating both VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation (with decreasing steps): we propose a first Robbins–Monro (RM) procedure based on Rockafellar–Uryasev's identity for the CVaR. Convergence rate of this algorithm to its target satisfies a Gaussian Central Limit Theorem. As a second step, in order to speed up the initial procedure, we propose a recursive and adaptive importance sampling (IS) procedure which induces a significant variance reduction of both VaR and CVaR procedures. This idea, which has been investigated by many authors, follows a new approach introduced in [Lemaire and Pagès, Unconstrained Recursive Importance Sampling, 2008]. Finally, to speed up the initialization phase of the IS algorithm, we replace the original confidence level of the VaR by a slowly moving risk level. We prove that the weak convergence rate of the resulting procedure is ruled by a Central Limit Theorem with minimal variance and its efficiency is illustrated on several typical energy portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • Bardou O. & Frikha N. & Pagès G., 2009. "Computing VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation and adaptive unconstrained importance sampling," Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 173-210, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:mcmeap:v:15:y:2009:i:3:p:173-210:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/MCMA.2009.011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jun Pan & Darrell Duffie, 2001. "Analytical value-at-risk with jumps and credit risk," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 155-180.
    2. Paul Glasserman & Philip Heidelberger & Perwez Shahabuddin, 2002. "Portfolio Value‐at‐Risk with Heavy‐Tailed Risk Factors," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 239-269, July.
    3. Margrabe, William, 1978. "The Value of an Option to Exchange One Asset for Another," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 177-186, March.
    4. Rockafellar, R. Tyrrell & Uryasev, Stanislav, 2002. "Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1443-1471, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Sojung & Weber, Stefan, 2022. "Simulation methods for robust risk assessment and the distorted mix approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(1), pages 380-398.
    2. Sojung Kim & Stefan Weber, 2020. "Simulation Methods for Robust Risk Assessment and the Distorted Mix Approach," Papers 2009.03653, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    3. Daniel R. Jiang & Warren B. Powell, 2018. "Risk-Averse Approximate Dynamic Programming with Quantile-Based Risk Measures," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 43(2), pages 554-579, May.
    4. Costa, Manon & Gadat, Sébastien & Bercu, Bernard, 2020. "Stochastic approximation algorithms for superquantiles estimation," TSE Working Papers 20-1142, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    5. Sotirios Sabanis & Ying Zhang, 2020. "A fully data-driven approach to minimizing CVaR for portfolio of assets via SGLD with discontinuous updating," Papers 2007.01672, arXiv.org.
    6. Laruelle Sophie & Pagès Gilles, 2012. "Stochastic approximation with averaging innovation applied to Finance," Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-51, January.
    7. Manon Costa & Sébastien Gadat, 2021. "Non-asymptotic study of a recursive superquantile estimation algorithm," Post-Print hal-03610477, HAL.
    8. Gadat, Sébastien & Costa, Manon, 2020. "Non asymptotic controls on a stochastic algorithm for superquantile approximation," TSE Working Papers 20-1149, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    9. Samuel Drapeau & Michael Kupper & Antonis Papapantoleon, 2012. "A Fourier Approach to the Computation of CV@R and Optimized Certainty Equivalents," Papers 1212.6732, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2013.
    10. Qiyun Pan & Eunshin Byon & Young Myoung Ko & Henry Lam, 2020. "Adaptive importance sampling for extreme quantile estimation with stochastic black box computer models," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 67(7), pages 524-547, October.
    11. Vishwajit Hegde & Arvind S. Menon & L. A. Prashanth & Krishna Jagannathan, 2021. "Online Estimation and Optimization of Utility-Based Shortfall Risk," Papers 2111.08805, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.

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