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Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo Techniques of Unobserved Component Time Series Models Using Ox

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  • Nonejad Nima

    (Department of Economics and Business and Creates, Arhus University, Aarhus, Denmark)

Abstract

This paper details particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) techniques for analysis of unobserved component time series models using several economic data sets. The objective of this paper is to explain the basics of the methodology and provide computational applications that justify applying PMCMC in practice. For instance, we use PMCMC to estimate a stochastic volatility model with a leverage effect, Student-t distributed errors or serial dependence. We also model time series characteristics of monthly US inflation rate by considering a heteroskedastic ARFIMA model where heteroskedasticity is specified by means of a Gaussian stochastic volatility process.

Suggested Citation

  • Nonejad Nima, 2016. "Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo Techniques of Unobserved Component Time Series Models Using Ox," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 55-90, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jtsmet:v:8:y:2016:i:1:p:55-90:n:2
    DOI: 10.1515/jtse-2013-0024
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2017. "The Stochastic Volatility in Mean Model With Time-Varying Parameters: An Application to Inflation Modeling," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 17-28, January.
    2. Bos, Charles S., 2011. "A Bayesian Analysis of Unobserved Component Models Using Ox," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 41(i13).
    3. Cathy W. S. Chen & Mike K. P. So & Ming-Tien Chen, 2005. "A Bayesian threshold nonlinearity test for financial time series," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 61-75.
    4. Grassi Stefano & Proietti Tommaso, 2010. "Has the Volatility of U.S. Inflation Changed and How?," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-22, September.
    5. Koop, Gary & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto & Strachan, Rodney W., 2010. "Dynamic Probabilities of Restrictions in State Space Models: An Application to the Phillips Curve," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(3), pages 370-379.
    6. Chan, Joshua C.C., 2013. "Moving average stochastic volatility models with application to inflation forecast," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 176(2), pages 162-172.
    7. Flury, Thomas & Shephard, Neil, 2011. "Bayesian Inference Based Only On Simulated Likelihood: Particle Filter Analysis Of Dynamic Economic Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(5), pages 933-956, October.
    8. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayes; Gibbs; Metropolis–Hastings; particle filter; unobserved components;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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