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On Probabilistic Excitement of Sports Games

Author

Listed:
  • Vecer Jan

    (Department of Statistics, Columbia University)

  • Ichiba Tomoyuki

    (Department of Statistics, Columbia University)

  • Laudanovic Mladen

    (Department of Statistics, Columbia University)

Abstract

In this paper we introduce a quantitative measure of the excitement of sports games. This measure can be thought of as the variability of the expectancy of winning as a game progresses. We illustrate the concept of excitement at soccer games for which the theoretical win expectancy can be well approximated from a Poisson model of scoring. We show that in the Poisson model, higher scoring rates lead to increased expected excitement. Given a particular strength of a team, the most exciting games are expected with opponents who are slightly stronger. We apply this theory to the FIFA World Cup 2006 games, where the winning expectancy was independently estimated by betting markets. Thus, it was possible to compute the expected and the realized excitement of each given game from the trading data.

Suggested Citation

  • Vecer Jan & Ichiba Tomoyuki & Laudanovic Mladen, 2007. "On Probabilistic Excitement of Sports Games," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 1-23, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:3:y:2007:i:3:n:6
    DOI: 10.2202/1559-0410.1066
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stefan Szymanski, 2010. "Income Inequality, Competitive Balance and the Attractiveness of Team Sports: Some Evidence and a Natural Experiment from English Soccer," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Football Economics and Policy, chapter 9, pages 182-201, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Allen R. Sanderson & John J. Siegfried, 2003. "Thinking about Competitive Balance," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 4(4), pages 255-279, November.
    3. Martin B. Schmidt & David J. Berri, 2001. "Competitive Balance and Attendance," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 2(2), pages 145-167, May.
    4. Garicano, Luis & Palacios-Huerta, Ignacio, 2005. "Sabotage in Tournaments: Making the Beautiful Game a Bit Less Beautiful," CEPR Discussion Papers 5231, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Thomas Andrew C, 2006. "The Impact of Puck Possession and Location on Ice Hockey Strategy," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-19, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Geenens, Gery, 2014. "On the decisiveness of a game in a tournament," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 232(1), pages 156-168.

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