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The Impact of Puck Possession and Location on Ice Hockey Strategy

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  • Thomas Andrew C

    (Harvard University)

Abstract

I create a state space within the game of ice hockey by noting which team has possession, and in what location of the rink the puck is located. This space is used to model the game as a semi-Markov process, as data from a series of games in 2004-2005 NCAA play suggest that the system cannot be modeled as a continuous time Markov process. The model is then used to determine the average number of goals scored by a team as a function of the starting state. These scoring probabilities are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of several commonly used tactics.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Andrew C, 2006. "The Impact of Puck Possession and Location on Ice Hockey Strategy," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-19, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:2:y:2006:i:1:n:6
    DOI: 10.2202/1559-0410.1007
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    Cited by:

    1. Vecer Jan & Ichiba Tomoyuki & Laudanovic Mladen, 2007. "On Probabilistic Excitement of Sports Games," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 1-23, July.
    2. Timothy C. Y. Chan & Justin A. Cho & David C. Novati, 2012. "Quantifying the Contribution of NHL Player Types to Team Performance," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 42(2), pages 131-145, April.
    3. Macdonald Brian, 2011. "A Regression-Based Adjusted Plus-Minus Statistic for NHL Players," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-31, July.
    4. Santos-Fernandez Edgar & Wu Paul & Mengersen Kerrie L., 2019. "Bayesian statistics meets sports: a comprehensive review," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 15(4), pages 289-312, December.

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