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Analysis of substitution times in soccer

Author

Listed:
  • Silva Rajitha M.

    (Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby BC, Canada V5A1S6)

  • Swartz Tim B.

    (Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby BC, Canada V5A1S6)

Abstract

This paper considers the problem of determining optimal substitution times in soccer. We review the substitution rule proposed by Myers (Myers, B. R. 2012. “A Proposed Decision Rule for the Timing of Soccer Substitutions.” Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports 8: Article 9.) and provide a discussion of the results. An alternative analysis is then presented that is based on Bayesian logistic regression. We find that with evenly matched teams, there is a goal scoring advantage to the trailing team during the second half of a match. In addition, we provide a different perspective with respect to the substitution guidelines advocated by Myers (Myers, B. R. 2012. “A Proposed Decision Rule for the Timing of Soccer Substitutions.” Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports 8: Article 9.). Specifically, we observe that there is no discernible time during the second half when there is a benefit due to substitution.

Suggested Citation

  • Silva Rajitha M. & Swartz Tim B., 2016. "Analysis of substitution times in soccer," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 113-122, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:12:y:2016:i:3:p:113-122:n:3
    DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2015-0114
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Julio Del Corral & Carlos Pestana Barros & Juan Prieto-Rodríguez, 2008. "The Determinants of Soccer Player Substitutions," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 9(2), pages 160-172, April.
    2. Myers Bret R., 2012. "A Proposed Decision Rule for the Timing of Soccer Substitutions," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Silva Rajitha M. & Swartz Tim B., 2016. "Rejoinder to Myers (2016)," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 125-125, September.
    2. Santos-Fernandez Edgar & Wu Paul & Mengersen Kerrie L., 2019. "Bayesian statistics meets sports: a comprehensive review," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 15(4), pages 289-312, December.
    3. Dilger, Alexander & Vischer, Lars, 2023. "Effects of the rule change from three to five substitutions in the Bundesliga," Discussion Papers of the Institute for Organisational Economics 7/2023, University of Münster, Institute for Organisational Economics.

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