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Inter-arrival Times of Goals in Ice Hockey

Author

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  • Thomas Andrew C

    (Harvard University)

Abstract

Previous studies have attempted to model goal scoring in sports such as ice hockey as simple Poisson processes. Others (Thomas, 2006) have shown that events within the game of ice hockey are better modelled as a Semi-Markov process determined by puck possession and location. I demonstrate that a similarly defined Semi-Markov process model is well-suited to describe the times between goals scored in NHL hockey, and use this to demonstrate that the scoring of a goal has the effect of shortening the remainder of the game by roughly 20 seconds. This is used to improve previous estimates of the value of a goal scored, calculated as a difference in win probabilities at specific time points during the game.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Andrew C, 2007. "Inter-arrival Times of Goals in Ice Hockey," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 1-17, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:3:y:2007:i:3:n:5
    DOI: 10.2202/1559-0410.1064
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Buttrey Samuel E., 2016. "Beating the market betting on NHL hockey games," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 87-98, June.
    2. Lahvicka, Jiri, 2013. "Impact of playoffs on seasonal uncertainty in Czech ice hockey Extraliga," MPRA Paper 44608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Gabel Alan & Redner Sidney, 2012. "Random Walk Picture of Basketball Scoring," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-20, March.
    4. Leonardo Lamas & José Vitor Senatore & Gilbert Fellingham, 2020. "Two steps for scoring a point: Creating and converting opportunities in invasion team sports," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(10), pages 1-16, October.
    5. Michal Friesl & Liam J. A. Lenten & Jan Libich & Petr Stehlík, 2017. "In search of goals: increasing ice hockey’s attractiveness by a sides swap," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 68(9), pages 1006-1018, September.
    6. Jiří LahviÄ ka, 2015. "The Impact of Playoffs on Seasonal Uncertainty in the Czech Ice Hockey Extraliga," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(7), pages 784-801, October.

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