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New standards in stochastic simulations of dairy cow disease modelling: Bio-economic dynamic optimization for rational health management decision-making

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  • Ferchiou, Ahmed
  • Lhermie, Guillaume
  • Raboisson, Didier

Abstract

Bioeconomic models applied to animal health issues are now commonly observed in literature. This section of literature is very heterogeneous and the underlying methods are very diverse, from very simple methods (partial budgeting) to very complex ones. The objective of the present study is to build a new dynamic stochastic optimisation bioeconomic model applied to the dairy cow sector, that goes beyond some limitations usually found in methods used up to now. First, based on a critical literature review, we highlight four issues of bio-economic stochastic simulation models (BESSMs) applied to dairy cow diseases at the farm level. These models appear as partial (the farm system is not considered as a whole), unbalanced (between the economic and biological parts of the model), closed (to the farm environment) and only partially dynamic. To address these 4 main issues and improve the methodological standards in the microeconomics of dairy cow health management, we secondly develop a new bio-economic sequential optimization model (BESOM), called DairyHealthSim. DairyHealthSim aims to better consider both the context of decision-making and the farming system dynamics to define the best health management strategies in a given context. The biological part of the model simulates the complex dairy production cycle with a holistic approach. It is defined on a cow-week basis, and the weekly probabilities for all cow events, including production, reproduction and diseases, are simulated. The economic part of the model is a mean-variance optimization framework that dynamically represents the farmer's input allocation decision process under constraints. The biological and economic parts are closely integrated and the model is running with back and forth between the 2 parts of the bioeconomic model. Third, an application involving farmers' strategies related to biological risk management, labour willingness and market demand is proposed for dairy production and mastitis management. The results highlight the added value of the farming system-driven system coupled to economic optimization approach. DairyHealthSim identifies the optimal scenario for the entire ten-year simulation period or is based on yearly optimization (sequential modelling). The two different optimal solutions found show the usefulness of considering the dynamics and complexities of the actual field situation. The opportunity cost between the best and alternative solutions demonstrates that some solutions are economic equivalents. In conclusion, compared to approaches where the outcome is reduced to the monetary impact of diseases, DairyHealthSim is far more precise and appropriate for supporting decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferchiou, Ahmed & Lhermie, Guillaume & Raboisson, Didier, 2021. "New standards in stochastic simulations of dairy cow disease modelling: Bio-economic dynamic optimization for rational health management decision-making," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:194:y:2021:i:c:s0308521x2100202x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103249
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tanure, Soraya & Nabinger, Carlos & Becker, João Luiz, 2013. "Bioeconomic model of decision support system for farm management. Part I: Systemic conceptual modeling," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 104-116.
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    3. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 1996. "Implications of Efficient Risk Sharing without Commitment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 63(4), pages 595-609.
    4. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Holt, Matthew T, 1996. "Economic Behavior under Uncertainty: A Joint Analysis of Risk Preferences and Technology," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(2), pages 329-335, May.
    5. Warwick McKibbin & Alexandra Sidorenko, 2006. "Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza," CAMA Working Papers 2006-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Saro & Luděk Stádník & Petra Bláhová & Simona Huguet & Helena Brožová & Jaromír Ducháček, 2024. "A decision support system based on disease scoring enables dairy farmers to proactively improve herd health," Czech Journal of Animal Science, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 69(5), pages 165-177.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimization; Bio-economics; Animal health; Dairy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets

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