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Policy Uncertainty and Technology Adoption

Author

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  • Dehghani Mohammad H.

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, N Kargar Ave, Tehran, Iran)

Abstract

This paper considers technology adoption under both technological and subsidy uncertainties. Uncertainty in subsidies for green technologies is considered as an example. Technological progress is exogenous and modeled as a jump process with a drift. The analytical solution is presented for cases when there is no subsidy uncertainty and when the subsidy changes once. The case when the subsidy follows a time invariant Markov process is analyzed numerically. The results show that improving the innovation process raises the investment thresholds. When technological jumps are small or rare, this improvement reduces the expected time before technology adoption. However, when technological jumps are large or abundant, this improvement may raise this expected time.

Suggested Citation

  • Dehghani Mohammad H., 2014. "Policy Uncertainty and Technology Adoption," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 14(4), pages 1405-1430, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejeap:v:14:y:2014:i:4:p:26:n:12
    DOI: 10.1515/bejeap-2013-0167
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    real options; technology adoption; policy uncertainty; clean technology; regime switching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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