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A Knightian Irreversible Investment Problem

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  • Giorgio Ferrari
  • Hanwu Li
  • Frank Riedel

Abstract

In this paper, we study an irreversible investment problem under Knightian uncertainty. In a general framework, in which Knightian uncertainty is modeled through a set of multiple priors, we prove existence and uniqueness of the optimal investment plan, and derive necessary and sufficient conditions for optimality. This allows us to construct the optimal policy in terms of the solution to a stochastic backward equation under the worst-case scenario. In a time-homogeneous setting - where risk is driven by a geometric Brownian motion and Knightian uncertainty is realized through a so-called "k-ignorance" - we are able to provide the explicit form of the optimal irreversible investment plan.

Suggested Citation

  • Giorgio Ferrari & Hanwu Li & Frank Riedel, 2020. "A Knightian Irreversible Investment Problem," Papers 2003.14359, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2003.14359
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ferrari, Giorgio & Salminen, Paavo, 2016. "Irreversible Investment under Lévy Uncertainty: an Equation for the Optimal Boundary," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 530, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    2. Peter Bank & David Besslich, 2018. "Modelling information flows by Meyer-$\sigma$-fields in the singular stochastic control problem of irreversible investment," Papers 1810.08495, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    3. Maria B. Chiarolla & Giorgio Ferrari, 2011. "Identifying the Free Boundary of a Stochastic, Irreversible Investment Problem via the Bank-El Karoui Representation Theorem," Papers 1108.4886, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2013.
    4. Tiziano De Angelis & Salvatore Federico & Giorgio Ferrari, 2014. "Optimal Boundary Surface for Irreversible Investment with Stochastic Costs," Papers 1406.4297, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2017.
    5. Nishimura, Kiyohiko G. & Ozaki, Hiroyuki, 2007. "Irreversible investment and Knightian uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 668-694, September.
    6. Tiziano De Angelis & Salvatore Federico & Giorgio Ferrari, 2017. "Optimal Boundary Surface for Irreversible Investment with Stochastic Costs," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 42(4), pages 1135-1161, November.
    7. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    8. Frank Riedel & Xia Su, 2011. "On irreversible investment," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 607-633, December.
    9. Zengjing Chen & Larry Epstein, 2002. "Ambiguity, Risk, and Asset Returns in Continuous Time," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1403-1443, July.
    10. Boyarchenko Svetlana & Levendorskii Sergei Z, 2006. "General Option Exercise Rules, with Applications to Embedded Options and Monopolistic Expansion," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-53, June.
    11. Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-985, December.
    12. Svetlana Boyarchenko, 2004. "Irreversible Decisions and Record-Setting News Principles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 557-568, June.
    13. Guo, Xin & Miao, Jianjun & Morellec, Erwan, 2005. "Irreversible investment with regime shifts," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 37-59, May.
    14. Arne Løkka & Mihail Zervos, 2011. "A Model For The Long-Term Optimal Capacity Level Of An Investment Project," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(02), pages 187-196.
    15. Y.M. Kabanov, 1999. "Hedging and liquidation under transaction costs in currency markets," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 237-248.
    16. Giorgio Ferrari, 2012. "On an integral equation for the free-boundary of stochastic, irreversible investment problems," Papers 1211.0412, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2015.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ferrari, Giorgio & Li, Hanwu & Riedel, Frank, 2020. "Optimal Consumption with Intertemporal Substitution under Knightian Uncertainty," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 641, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.

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