IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/bejeap/v10y2010i1n72.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are Net FDI Flows and Reversals of Capital Flows a Result of Output Growth?

Author

Listed:
  • Aharonovitz Gilad D

    (Washington State University)

  • Miller James D

    (Washington State University)

Abstract

Literature notes many factors as affecting capital flows, but the effects of these flows over the recipient economies and the overall effect over growth are highly debatable. This study claims that although capital flows may be required for the increase in output, other forces are causing this growth and creating the demand for capital. We construct a model in which growth requires both decisions of firms regarding training of managers in order to expand, representing the absorption capacity of the firms, and capital for the firms' expansion. The model shows that in early stages of development when output is low, capital inflows are increasing with an increase in the output, but are not the cause for the output growth. However, when output is higher, an increase in the output is associated with financial outflows since the local savings are increasing by more than the local demand for capital. Although we cannot empirically test the model, we use cross-country regressions to show that capital flows are in-line with the predictions of the model and manage to explain half of the variations in net FDI flows per capita using the stage of development. Many policies regarding capital flows may be, therefore, irrelevant.

Suggested Citation

  • Aharonovitz Gilad D & Miller James D, 2010. "Are Net FDI Flows and Reversals of Capital Flows a Result of Output Growth?," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-28, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejeap:v:10:y:2010:i:1:n:72
    DOI: 10.2202/1935-1682.2296
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2202/1935-1682.2296
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2202/1935-1682.2296?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eicher, Theo S. & Papageorgiou, Chris & Roehn, Oliver, 2007. "Unraveling the fortunes of the fortunate: An Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging (IBMA) approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 494-514, September.
    2. James R. MARKUSEN, 2021. "Multinationals, Multi-Plant Economies, And The Gains From Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 1, pages 3-24, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan, 2006. "Sudden stops and the Mexican wave: Currency crises, capital flow reversals and output loss in emerging markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 225-248, February.
    4. Manuel Agosin & Roberto Machado, 2005. "Foreign Investment in Developing Countries: Does it Crowd in Domestic Investment?," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 149-162.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    6. Reuven Glick & Xueyan Guo & Michael Hutchison, 2006. "Currency Crises, Capital-Account Liberalization, and Selection Bias," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 698-714, November.
    7. Gastanaga, Victor M. & Nugent, Jeffrey B. & Pashamova, Bistra, 1998. "Host Country Reforms and FDI Inflows: How Much Difference do they Make?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1299-1314, July.
    8. Peter Blair Henry & Diego Sasson, 2008. "Capital Account Liberalization, Real Wages, and Productivity," NBER Working Papers 13880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F. J. Steel, 2001. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 563-576.
    10. Javorcik, Beata Smarzynska & Spatareanu, Mariana, 2008. "To share or not to share: Does local participation matter for spillovers from foreign direct investment?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 194-217, February.
    11. Robert E. Lipsey, 2002. "Home and Host Country Effects of FDI," NBER Working Papers 9293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Dias, Joilson & McDermott, John, 2006. "Institutions, education, and development: The role of entrepreneurs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 299-328, August.
    13. Slater, Martin, 1980. "The Managerial Limitation to the Growth of Firms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(3593), pages 520-528, September.
    14. Smarzynska Javorcik, Beata, 2004. "The composition of foreign direct investment and protection of intellectual property rights: Evidence from transition economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 39-62, February.
    15. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 1978. "On the Size Distribution of Business Firms," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 9(2), pages 508-523, Autumn.
    16. Barry Eichengreen & David Leblang, 2003. "Capital account liberalization and growth: was Mr. Mahathir right?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 205-224.
    17. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 1, pages 35-54, November.
    18. Helpman, Elhanan, 1984. "A Simple Theory of International Trade with Multinational Corporations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(3), pages 451-471, June.
    19. Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2000. "Capital Market Liberalization, Economic Growth, and Instability," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1075-1086, June.
    20. Kamal Saggi, 2002. "Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and International Technology Transfer: A Survey," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 17(2), pages 191-235, September.
    21. Cheng, Leonard K. & Kwan, Yum K., 2000. "What are the determinants of the location of foreign direct investment? The Chinese experience," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 379-400, August.
    22. Mr. Ayhan Kose & Mr. Kenneth Rogoff & Mr. Eswar S Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence," IMF Occasional Papers 2003/007, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-183, May.
    24. Lee, Jeong-Yeon & Mansfield, Edwin, 1996. "Intellectual Property Protection and U.S. Foreign Direct Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(2), pages 181-186, May.
    25. Verdier, Genevieve, 2008. "What drives long-term capital flows A theoretical and empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 120-142, January.
    26. Ross Levine, 2001. "International Financial Liberalization and Economic Growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(4), pages 688-702, November.
    27. Quinn, Dennis, 1997. "The Correlates of Change in International Financial Regulation," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 91(3), pages 531-551, September.
    28. Manova, Kalina, 2008. "Credit constraints, equity market liberalizations and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 33-47, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gilad Aharonovitz & James Miller, 2008. "Are Net FDI Flows and Reversals of Capital Flows a Result of Output Growth?," Working Papers 2009-05, School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University.
    2. Bonfiglioli, Alessandra, 2008. "Financial integration, productivity and capital accumulation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 337-355, December.
    3. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(2), pages 143-197.
    4. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2018. "Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262037165, December.
    5. William R. Cline, 2010. "Financial Globalization, Economic Growth, and the Crisis of 2007-09," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 499, April.
    6. M Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 8-62, April.
    7. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    8. Abdilahi Ali & Katsushi S. Imai, 2015. "Editor's choice Crises, Economic Integration and Growth Collapses in African Countries," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 24(4), pages 471-501.
    9. Garita, Gus, 2009. "How Does Financial Openness Affect Economic Growth and its Components?," MPRA Paper 20099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Chen, Jinzhao & Quang, Thérèse, 2014. "The impact of international financial integration on economic growth: New evidence on threshold effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 475-489.
    11. Moritz Schularick & Thomas M. Steger, 2006. "Does Financial Integration Spur Economic Growth? New Evidence from the First Era of Financial Globalization," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 06/46, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    12. Malgorzata Sulimierska, 2008. "The Theoretical Link Between Capital Account Liberalization and Currency Crisis Episodes," International Trade and Finance Association Conference Papers 1111, International Trade and Finance Association.
    13. Chen, Jinzhao & Quang, Thérèse, 2014. "The impact of international financial integration on economic growth: New evidence on threshold effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 475-489.
    14. Gilad D. Aharonovitz, 2011. "Why Cannot Poor Countries Utilize Existing Knowledge? Expansion Of Firms And Human Capital Accumulation By Training," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(1), pages 108-121, January.
    15. Alessandra Bonfiglioli & Caterina Mendicino, 2004. "Financial liberalization, bank crises and growth: Assessing the links," Economics Working Papers 946, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    16. Crespo, Nuno & Fontoura, Maria Paula, 2007. "Determinant Factors of FDI Spillovers - What Do We Really Know?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 410-425, March.
    17. Pariwat Kanithasen & Vacharakoon Jivakanont & Charnon Boonnuch, 2011. "AEC 2015: Ambitions, Expectations and Challenges ASEAN's Path towards Greater Economic and Financial Integration," Working Papers 2011-03, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    18. Nuri Yildirim & Huseyin Tastan, 2012. "Capital Flows and Economic Growth across Spectral requencies: Evidence from Turkey," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(4), pages 441-462, September.
    19. Wenwen Sheng & M. C. Sunny Wong, 2017. "Capital Flow Management Policies and Riskiness of External Liability Structures: the Role of Local Financial Markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 461-498, July.
    20. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2020. "Trade Openness and Diversification of External Financial Flows for Development: An Empirical Analysis," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 9(1), pages 22-57, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:bejeap:v:10:y:2010:i:1:n:72. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.