IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/blg/journl/v15y2020i3p16-35.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Differences In Exchange Rate Effects On Production Growth: The Case Of Iranian Industries

Author

Listed:
  • EBRAHIMI Sajad

    (Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Iran)

  • GHADERI Omid

    (M.A. graduate in economics, Iran)

  • BAYAT Saeed

    (Central Bank of Iran, Iran)

Abstract

There has been a long debate about whether exchange rate depreciation promotes output growth or not. In this context, we use Iran’s foreign exchange market which has had large fluctuations in recent years. Since the exchange rate influence on industries' activity through different mechanisms, we examine the exchange rate effects in the industry level. To do this, the Iranian manufacturing industries data at 4-digit ISIC level are used from 2011 to 2017. The results of GMM dynamic panel data estimations show that the effects of real exchange rate depreciation on average, are positive in the non-crisis periods. But this relationship does not remain valid in a currency crisis conditions. Accordingly, depreciation does not have any positive effects during the currency crisis. Also, estimation results indicate the exchange rate volatility negatively affects industrial production in all periods. Our findings confirm that due to different characteristics of industries, the effects of exchange rate on production vary among them. So, export orientation, access to the preferential rate and higher level of raw material inventory amplify the positive effect of the real depreciation while import dependency and a higher level of final goods inventory fade the effect and turn into negative in some industries.

Suggested Citation

  • EBRAHIMI Sajad & GHADERI Omid & BAYAT Saeed, 2020. "Differences In Exchange Rate Effects On Production Growth: The Case Of Iranian Industries," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 15(3), pages 16-35, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:blg:journl:v:15:y:2020:i:3:p:16-35
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eccsf.ulbsibiu.ro/RePEc/blg/journl/15302ebrahimi.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2007. "Exchange rate policy and export performance of WAMZ countries," MPRA Paper 6233, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Anubha Dhasmana, 2015. "Transmission of real exchange rate changes to the manufacturing sector: The role of financial access," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 143, pages 48-69.
    3. Eichengreen, Barry & Gupta, Poonam, 2012. "The Real Exchange Rate and Export Growth: Are Services Different?," Working Papers 12/112, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    4. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 494-513, May.
    5. Guitian, Manuel, 1976. "The effects of changes in the exchange rate on output, prices and the balance of payments," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 65-74, February.
    6. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2009. "Impact of Oil Price Shock and Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 16319, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jun 2009.
    7. Van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1986. "Exchange rate management and stabilization policies in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 227-247, October.
    8. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 2009. "The Economics of Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012634, April.
    9. Burgess, Simon M & Knetter, Michael M, 1998. "An International Comparison of Employment Adjustment to Exchange Rate Fluctuations," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 151-163, February.
    10. Kochen Federico & Sámano Daniel, 2016. "Price-Setting and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Mexican Economy: Evidence from CPI Micro Data," Working Papers 2016-13, Banco de México.
    11. Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978. "Contractionary effects of devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August.
    12. Kamin, S.B., 1988. "Devaluation, External Balance, And Macroeconomic Performance: A Look At The Numbers," Princeton Studies in International Economics 62, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    13. Kamin, Steve B. & Rogers, John H., 2000. "Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 85-109, February.
    14. Krueger, Anne O, 1998. "Why Trade Liberalisation Is Good for Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(450), pages 1513-1522, September.
    15. Ram, Rati, 1985. "Exports and Economic Growth: Some Additional Evidence," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(2), pages 415-425, January.
    16. Bo†Young Choi & Ju Hyun Pyun, 2018. "Does real exchange rate depreciation increase productivity? Analysis using Korean firm†level data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 604-633, February.
    17. Rudiger Dornbusch & Alejandro Werner, 1994. "Mexico: Stabilization, Reform, and No Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1), pages 253-316.
    18. Schnabl, Gunther, 2008. "Exchange rate volatility and growth in small open economies at the EMU periphery," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 70-91, March.
    19. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2007. "Effects of exchange rate policy on bilateral export trade of WAMZ countries," MPRA Paper 6234, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abdallah, Ali, 2022. "Dépréciation réelle de la monnaie et croissance économique [Can real currency depreciation lead growth?]," MPRA Paper 113183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Magda Kandil, 2006. "On the transmission of exchange rate fluctuations to the macroeconomy: Contrasting evidence for developing and developed countries," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 101-127.
    3. Chen Ku‐Hsieh, 2021. "Depreciate to save the economy? An empirical evidence worldwide," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1563-1585, January.
    4. Anubha Dhasmana, 2015. "Transmission of real exchange rate changes to the manufacturing sector: The role of financial access," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 143, pages 48-69.
    5. Polterovich, Victor & Popov, Vladimir, 2003. "Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves and Long Term Growth," MPRA Paper 20069, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    7. Sanginabadi, Bahram & Heidari, Hassan, 2012. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth in Iran," MPRA Paper 52406, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. J.O. Adeniran & S.A. Yusuf & Olatoke A. Adeyemi, 2014. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuation on the Nigerian Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 4(8), pages 224-233, August.
    9. Eddy Bekkers & Joseph Francois, 2014. "Bilateral Exchange Rates and Jobs," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 275-298, May.
    10. Jérôme Héricourt & Sandra Poncet, 2015. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Financial Constraints, and Trade: Empirical Evidence from Chinese Firms," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 29(3), pages 550-578.
    11. Steven B. Kamin & Marc Klau, 1997. "Some multi-country evidence on the effects of real exchange rates on output," BIS Working Papers 48, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Andreas Hoffmann & Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "The theory of optimum currency areas and growth in emerging markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(6), pages 513-517.
    13. Magda Kandil & Ida Aghdas Mirzaie, 2008. "Comparative Analysis Of Exchange Rate Appreciation And Aggregate Economic Activity: Theory And Evidence From Middle Eastern Countries," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 45-96, January.
    14. Grossmann, Axel & Orlov, Alexei G., 2012. "Exchange rate misalignments in frequency domain," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 185-199.
    15. Brahim Gaies & Stéphane Goutte & Khaled Guesmi, 2019. "Does Financial Globalization Still Spur Growth In Emerging And Developing Countries? Considering Exchange Rate Volatility'S Effects," Working Papers hal-01968082, HAL.
    16. Demir, Firat, 2013. "Growth under exchange rate volatility: Does access to foreign or domestic equity markets matter?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 74-88.
    17. Miao, Zhuang & Li, Yifan, 2017. "Trade Scopes across Destinations: Evidence from Chinese Firm," MPRA Paper 80863, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Aug 2017.
    18. Nsofor Ebele Sabina & Takon Samuel Manyo & Ugwuegbe Sebastine Ugochukwu, 2017. "Modeling Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Growth in Nigeria," Noble International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Noble Academic Publsiher, vol. 2(6), pages 88-97, June.
    19. Shi, Jianhuai, 2007. "Are Currency Appreciations Contractionary in China?," 2007: China's Agricultural Trade: Issues and Prospects Symposium, July 2007, Beijing, China 55020, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    20. Fatbardha Morina & Eglantina Hysa & Uğur Ergün & Mirela Panait & Marian Catalin Voica, 2020. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth: Case of the CEE Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-13, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:blg:journl:v:15:y:2020:i:3:p:16-35. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mihaela Herciu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feulbro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.