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The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime and the Volatility of Exchange Rates after the Asian Crisis: A Counterfactual Analysis

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  • Peter Wilson
  • Henry Ng Shang Ren

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to carry out a counterfactual analysis of the impact of alternative exchange rate regimes on the volatility of the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) and the bilateral rate against the US dollar for nine East Asian countries after the Asian financial crisis. Our hypothetical regimes include a unilateral basket peg (UBP), a common basket peg (CBP) and a hard peg against the dollar. We find that a UBP would minimise effective exchange rate volatility for all countries and provides the highest regime gains compared to actual. Although the gains for a CBP are always less than those for a UBP, the absolute differences between the two regimes appear to be small. In terms of the bilateral relationship against the dollar, the gains from a UBP or CBP could be quite significant for the non‐dollar peggers since a fall in effective instability would be accompanied by a fall in bilateral instability.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Wilson & Henry Ng Shang Ren, 2007. "The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime and the Volatility of Exchange Rates after the Asian Crisis: A Counterfactual Analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(11), pages 1646-1661, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:30:y:2007:i:11:p:1646-1661
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2007.01046.x
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    1. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1999. "Understanding Exchange Rate Volatility without the Contrivance of Macroeconomics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(459), pages 660-672, November.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Arouna, Aminou & Fatognon, Irene Akoko & Saito, Kazuki & Futakuchi, Koichi, 2021. "Moving toward rice self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa by 2030: Lessons learned from 10 years of the Coalition for African Rice Development," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    3. Benjamin Keddad, 2013. "Exchange rate coordination in Asia under regional currency basket systems," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2913-2929.
    4. Muammer Wali & Meher Manzur, 2013. "Exchange Rate Volatility Before and After the Float," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(8), pages 1091-1097, August.
    5. Benjamin Keddad, 2013. "Assessing Asian Exchange Rates Coordination under Regional Currency Basket System," AMSE Working Papers 1345, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised Sep 2013.
    6. Myint Moe Chit & Marian Rizov & Dirk Willenbockel, 2010. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 239-263, February.
    7. Robin Pope, 2009. "Beggar‐Thy‐Neighbour Exchange Rate Regime Misadvice from Misapplications of Mundell (1961) and the Remedy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 326-350, February.

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