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Exchange Rate Volatility and Macroeconomic Performance in Hong Kong

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  • Crosby, M.

Abstract

In this paper evidence on whether Hong Kong's currency board arrangement, in place since 1983, has affected volatility of real macroeconomic variables is presented. Simple evidence on the relative volatilities of relevant macroeconomic variables pre and post 1983 is presented, before a more formal econometric framework is utilised to examine the linkages between the exchange rate and the real economy. It is found that the currency board period has been one of relative stability in Hong Kong, though it has also been a period where external factors have been relatively benign. Even after controlling for the external environment it is found that the currency board period is one of low macroeconomic volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Crosby, M., 2000. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Macroeconomic Performance in Hong Kong," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 749, The University of Melbourne.
    • Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:749
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    Cited by:

    1. Lillian Cheung & Eric Wong & Philip Ng & Ken Wong, 2018. "Assessing the impact of globalisation: Lessons from Hong Kong," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and deglobalisation, volume 100, pages 139-147, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Stefan Gerlach & Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2006. "Monetary policy regimes and macroeconomic outcomes: Hong Kong and Singapore," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in Asia: approaches and implementation, volume 31, pages 40-64, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Echeverria Garaigorta, Paulina Elisa & Iza Padilla, María Amaya, 2011. "Business cycles in a small open economy: The case of Hong Kong," DFAEII Working Papers 1988-088X, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    4. Mark Crosby & Timothy Kam & Kirdan Lees, 2008. "How Costly is Exchange Rate Stabilisation for an Inflation Targeter? The Case of Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(266), pages 354-365, September.
    5. Mohsen Bahmani--Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty & Jia Xu, 2013. "Exchange--rate volatility and US--Hong Kong industry trade: is there evidence of a 'third country' effect?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(18), pages 2629-2651, June.
    6. Agusman, Agusman & Cullen, Grant S. & Gasbarro, Dominic & Monroe, Gary S. & Zumwalt, J. Kenton, 2014. "Government intervention, bank ownership and risk-taking during the Indonesian financial crisis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 114-131.
    7. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2006. "Internal and external shocks in Hong Kong: Empirical evidence and policy options," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 56-75, January.
    8. Paulina Etxeberria-Garaigorta & Amaia Iza, 2015. "The Role of Productivity and Financial Frictions in the Business Cycles of a Small Open Economy: Hong Kong 1984–2011," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 400-414, May.
    9. Mark Crosby & Glenn Otto, 2001. "Persistence Of Output Fluctuations Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes," Working Papers 072001, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EXCHANGE RATE ; MACROECONOMICS ; FORECASTS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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