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The effects of exchange rate risk on economic performance: the Turkish experience

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  • Hakan Berument
  • N. Nergiz Dincer

Abstract

This study examines the effects of real exchange rate risk on the economic performance for an emerging, small open economy: Turkey. When the ratios of the total foreign exchange liabilities of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) to: (1) total reserves; (2) the CBRT's reserves; and (3) the CBRT's total Turkish lira liabilities are taken proxy of exchange rate risk, the empirical evidence suggests that the increase in exchange rate risk causes a depreciation in the real exchange rate, an increase in prices and a decrease in output.

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  • Hakan Berument & N. Nergiz Dincer, 2004. "The effects of exchange rate risk on economic performance: the Turkish experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(21), pages 2429-2441.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:21:p:2429-2441
    DOI: 10.1080/0003684042000287637
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    1. Bruce Felmincham & Peter Mansfield, 1997. "Rationality and the Risk Premium on the Australian dollar," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 47-59.
    2. Hakan Berument & Asli Günay, 2003. "Exchange Rate Risk and Interest Rate: A Case Study for Turkey," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 19-27, January.
    3. Agathe Côté, "undated". "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: A Survey," Staff Working Papers 94-5, Bank of Canada.
    4. Agathe Cote, 1994. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade," International Trade 9406001, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Jun 1994.
    5. Kamin, Steve B. & Rogers, John H., 2000. "Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 85-109, February.
    6. Davis, George & Kanago, Bryce, 1996. "On Measuring the Effect of Inflation Uncertainty on Real GNP Growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 163-175, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Armah, Stephen E., 2008. "Explaining Ghana's Recent Good Cocoa Karma: Smuggling Incentive Argument," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6359, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Ashis Kumar Pradhan & Gourishankar S. Hiremath, 2021. "Effects of foreign currency debt on investment of the firms in emerging economy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 4993-5004, October.
    3. Arslanturk, Yalcin & Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2011. "Time-varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 664-671, January.
    4. Kasman, Adnan & Ayhan, Duygu, 2008. "Foreign exchange reserves and exchange rates in Turkey: Structural breaks, unit roots and cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 83-92, January.
    5. Emrah GULAY & Mehmet Vedat PAZARLIOGLU, 2016. "The Empirical Role of Real Crude Oil Price and Real Exchange Rate on Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 16(4), pages 627-639.
    6. Omolade Adeleke & Nwosa Philip & Ngalawa Harold, 2019. "Monetary Transmission Channel, Oil Price Shock and the Manufacturing Sector in Nigeria," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 19(1), pages 89-113, June.
    7. Saadet Kasman & Duygu Ayhan, 2006. "Macroeconomic Volatility under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 6(2), pages 37-58.

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