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Real exchange rate overvaluation and currency crisis: evidence from Thailand

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  • Juthathip Jongwanich

Abstract

This article examines real exchange rate (RER) misalignment in Thailand in the lead-up to the 1997-1998 currency crisis. The methodology involves estimating the long-run equilibrium RER based on the internal and external balance approach. RER misalignment is measured by comparing the actual RER with the estimated long-run equilibrium RER. The results suggest that there was a persistent RER overvaluation from 1991 up to the onset of the crisis in 1997. 'Too much' net short-term capital inflows and government expenditure expansion were the main contributory factors. After the massive depreciation of nominal exchange rate during the crisis, the RER seems to have gradually returned to its long-run equilibrium level.

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  • Juthathip Jongwanich, 2008. "Real exchange rate overvaluation and currency crisis: evidence from Thailand," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 373-382.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:40:y:2008:i:3:p:373-382
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840600570961
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    2. Michael Fidora & Claire Giordano & Martin Schmitz, 2021. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments in the Euro Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 71-107, February.
    3. Jongwanich, Juthathip & Kohpaiboon, Archanun, 2013. "Capital flows and real exchange rates in emerging Asian countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 138-146.
    4. Jongwanich, Juthathip, 2009. "Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate, Misalignment, and Export Performance in Developing Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 151, Asian Development Bank.
    5. Mohammad Hassanzadeh & Shahla Mousavi, 2023. "Real effective exchange rate misalignment and currency crisis in Iran," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-8, December.
    6. Keun Lee & Sanika Sulochani Ramanayake, 2018. "Adding-Up Problem and Wage–Productivity Gap in Exports of Developing Countries: A Source of the Middle-Income Trap," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 30(5), pages 769-788, December.
    7. Duc Hong Vo & Anh The Vo, 2017. "Currency evaluation using a big mac index for Thailand – lessons for Vietnam," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 999-1011.

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