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Investor Responses to IMF Program Suspensions: Is Noncompliance Costly?

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  • Martin S. Edwards

Abstract

Objective. This article reinvestigates the “catalytic” effects of IMF programs on investment controlling for the implementation of the program, allowing us to ascertain if capital markets respond to the mere announcement of a Fund program or its sustained positive implementation. Methods. Using a panel of data based on the experience of 106 developing countries entering Fund programs between 1979 and 1995, I employ both probit and tobit estimations to assess the effects of the announcement of a Fund program (and performance under it) on inflows of portfolio investment. Results. I find mixed evidence that good implementation serves to slow capital flight. I find consistently strong evidence that failed Fund programs produce portfolio flight. Conclusion. The findings suggest that we should think about the Fund's influence (both positive and negative) in light of how capital markets respond to its signals.

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  • Martin S. Edwards, 2005. "Investor Responses to IMF Program Suspensions: Is Noncompliance Costly?," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 86(4), pages 857-873, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:86:y:2005:i:4:p:857-873
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0038-4941.2005.00360.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vreeland,James Raymond, 2003. "The IMF and Economic Development," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521016957, October.
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    5. Mr. Pierre Dhonte, 1997. "Conditionality as an Instrument of Borrower Credibility," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 1997/002, International Monetary Fund.
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    7. Mr. Carlo Cottarelli, 1993. "Limiting Central Bank Credit to the Government: Theory and Practice," IMF Occasional Papers 1993/008, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin S. Edwards, 2009. "Public support for the international economic organizations: Evidence from developing countries," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 185-209, June.
    2. Koen J. M. van der Veer & Eelke de Jong, 2013. "IMF-Supported Programmes: Stimulating Capital to Non-defaulting Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 375-395, April.
    3. Rockerbie, Duane W. & Easton, Stephen T., 2009. "Commercial banks, default insurance and IMF reforms," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-39, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Bernhard Reinsberg & Thomas Stubbs & Alexander Kentikelenis, 2022. "Compliance, defiance, and the dependency trap: International Monetary Fund program interruptions and their impact on capital markets," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(4), pages 1022-1041, October.
    5. Stubbs, Thomas H. & Kentikelenis, Alexander E. & King, Lawrence P., 2016. "Catalyzing Aid? The IMF and Donor Behavior in Aid Allocation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 511-528.
    6. Mr. Ali J Al-Sadiq, 2015. "The Impact of IMF-Supported Programs on FDI in Low-income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2015/157, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Krishna Chaitanya Vadlamannati & Samuel Brazys, 2023. "Does cultural diversity hinder the implementation of IMF-supported programs? An empirical investigation," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 87-116, January.
    8. Pinheiro, Diogo & Chwieroth, Jeffrey & Hicks, Alexander, 2015. "Do international non-governmental organizations inhibit globalization? the case of capital account liberalization in developing countries," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 63669, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Claudia Maurini & Alessandro Schiavone, 2021. "The catalytic role of IMF programs," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1331, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Glen Biglaiser & Karl DeRouen, 2010. "The effects of IMF programs on U.S. foreign direct investment in the developing world," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 73-95, March.
    11. Glen Biglaiser & Karl DeRouen, 2011. "How soon is now? The effects of the IMF on economic reforms in Latin America," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 189-213, July.
    12. Glen Biglaiser & Hoon Lee & Joseph Staats, 2016. "The effects of the IMF on expropriation of foreign firms," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, March.
    13. Mr. Calixte Ahokpossi & Laurence Allain & Giovanna Bua, 2014. "A Constrained Choice? Impact of Concessionality Requirements on Borrowing Behavior," IMF Working Papers 2014/176, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Songying Fang & Erica Owen, 2011. "International institutions and credible commitment of non-democracies," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 141-162, July.
    15. Molly Bauer & Cesi Cruz & Benjamin Graham, 2012. "Democracies only: When do IMF agreements serve as a seal of approval?," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 33-58, March.
    16. Marijana Andrijic & Tajana Barbic, 2018. "Trick or Treat? The Effect of IMF Programmes on Mobilising FDI in CESEE Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(3), pages 245-267, July.
    17. Martin Edwards, 2009. "Public support for the international economic organizations: Evidence from developing countries," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 185-209, June.
    18. Kerner, Andrew & Crabtree, Charles, 2018. "The Political Economy of Data Production," SocArXiv qsxae, Center for Open Science.
    19. Martin Steinwand & Randall Stone, 2008. "The International Monetary Fund: A review of the recent evidence," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 123-149, June.

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