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Destabilizing Effects of Exchange-Rate Escape Clauses

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  • Obstfeld, Maurice

Abstract

This paper studies policy rules with escape clauses, analyzing as an example fixed exchange rate systems that allow member countries the freedom to realign in periods of stress. While well-designed escape-clause rules can raise society's welfare in principle, limited credibility makes it difficult to implement such rules in practice. An EMS-type institution that imposes political costs on policymakers who realign may raise welfare, but can also produce equilibria far inferior to an irrevocably fixed exchange rate. Switches between multiple equilibria may have the character of sudden speculative attacks.
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  • Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Destabilizing Effects of Exchange-Rate Escape Clauses," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt15n3p5dt, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:econwp:qt15n3p5dt
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lohmann, Susanne, 1992. "Optimal Commitment in Monetary Policy: Credibility versus Flexibility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 273-286, March.
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    13. Robert P. Flood & Peter Isard, 1990. "Monetary Policy Strategies: A Correction: Reply to Lohmann," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(2), pages 446-448, June.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1999. "Political economics and macroeconomic policy," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 22, pages 1397-1482, Elsevier.
    3. Osman Suliman, 2003. "Endogenous Restrictions for Least Developed Economies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 423-434, May.
    4. Paolo Canofari & Alessandra Marcelletti & Giovanni Piersanti, 2018. "The Announcement of Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Exit Risk in the European Monetary Union," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(4), pages 95-100, April.
    5. Mareike Kleine, 2013. "Knowing your limits: Informal governance and judgment in the EU," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 245-264, June.

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