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The Changing Volatility Of The South African Economy

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  • Philippe Burger

Abstract

During the last decade economic literature explored the presence of and reasons for what became known as “the great moderation” in the US and other G7 countries. “The great moderation” describes the decrease in economic volatility experienced in many of the G7 countries. This paper finds that in South Africa volatility is also not constant (it even finds that there are autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic effects present) and that volatility also decreased, particularly since 1994. Following the literature, the paper explores several reasons for this decrease and finds that smaller shocks, better monetary policy and improvements in the financial sector that place less liquidity constraints on individuals and allow them to manage their debt better are some of the main reasons for the reduction in the volatility of the South African economy. The literature on the G7 also suggests that better inventory management contributed to the lower volatility. However, this seems not to be true for South Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Burger, 2008. "The Changing Volatility Of The South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(3), pages 335-355, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:76:y:2008:i:3:p:335-355
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1813-6982.2008.00198.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barell, Ray & Gottschalk, Sylvia, 2004. "The Volatility of the Output Gap in the G7," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 188, pages 100-107, April.
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    3. Robert J Gordon, 2005. "What Caused the Decline in US Business Cycle Volatility?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.),The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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    5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(5), pages 968-1006, September.
    6. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1.
    7. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2002. "An investigation of co-movements among the growth rates of the G-7 countries," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), vol. 88(Oct), pages 427-437, October.
    8. Christina D. Romer, 1999. "Changes in Business Cycles: Evidence and Explanations," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 23-44, Spring.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kevin Kotze & Stan Du Plessis, 2012. "Trends and Structural Changes in South African Macroeconomic Volatility," Working Papers 297, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    2. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2020. "The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy In South Africa Under Inflation Targeting: Evidence from a Time-Varying Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive Model," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 54(4), pages 55-73, October-D.

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