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Great Moderation(s) And U.s. Interest Rates: Unconditional Evidence

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  • James M. Nason

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)

  • Gregor W. Smith

Abstract

The US economy experienced a Great Moderation sometime in the mid-1980s -- a fall in the volatility of output growth -- at the same time as a fall in both the volatility of inflation andthe average rate of inflation. We put this moderation in historical perspective by comparing it to the post-WWII moderation. According to theory, the statistical moments -- bothreal and nominal -- that shift during these moderations in turn influence interest rates. We examine the predictions for shifts in the unconditional average of US interest rates. A central finding is that such shifts probably were due to changes in average inflation rather than to those in the variances of inflation andconsumption growth.

Suggested Citation

  • James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2007. "Great Moderation(s) And U.s. Interest Rates: Unconditional Evidence," Working Paper 1140, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    • Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1140
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    Cited by:

    1. Nason, James M. & Tallman, Ellis W., 2015. "Business Cycles And Financial Crises: The Roles Of Credit Supply And Demand Shocks," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 836-882, June.
    2. Keating, John W. & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2017. "What's so great about the Great Moderation?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 115-142.
    3. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2015. "Estimating dynamic equilibrium models with stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 216-229.
    4. Keating, John W. & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2015. "The Time-Varying Effects Of Permanent And Transitory Shocks To Real Output," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 477-507, April.
    5. John W. Keating & Victor J. Valcarcel, 2012. "What's so Great about the Great Moderation? A Multi-Country Investigation of Time-Varying Volatilities of Output Growth and Inflation," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201204, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
    6. Kurt G. Lunsford & Kenneth D. West, 2019. "Some Evidence on Secular Drivers of US Safe Real Rates," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 113-139, October.
    7. Moen, Jon R. & Tallman, Ellis W., 2000. "Clearinghouse Membership and Deposit Contraction during the Panic of 1907," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(1), pages 145-163, March.
    8. Alexopoulos, Michelle & Tombe, Trevor, 2012. "Management matters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 269-285.
    9. Thorsten V. Koeppl, 2009. "How Flexible Can Inflation Targeting Be? Suggestions for the Future of Canada's Targeting Regime," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 293, August.
    10. Semih Emre Çekin & Victor J. Valcarcel, 2020. "Inflation volatility and inflation in the wake of the great recession," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1997-2015, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    great moderation; asset pricing;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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