IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/sajeco/v74y2006i2p190-204.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroeconomic Uncertainty And Aggregate Private Investment In South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Wolassa L. Kumo

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of time varying uncertainty on aggregate private fixed investment in South Africa. The GARCH generated measures of volatility of selected macroeconomic variables indicating five measures of uncertainty are used in the analysis. These are output growth uncertainty, uncertainty about changes in the real effective exchange rate, uncertainty about changes in the real interest rate, producer inflation uncertainty, and terms of trade uncertainty. The results of the estimation by an empirical ECM model of conventional investment determinants controlling for the effects of uncertainty indicated that, over all, time varying macroeconomic uncertainty significantly reduces private fixed investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolassa L. Kumo, 2006. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty And Aggregate Private Investment In South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(2), pages 190-204, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:74:y:2006:i:2:p:190-204
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1813-6982.2006.00071.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1813-6982.2006.00071.x
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1813-6982.2006.00071.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107.
    2. Robert S. Pindyck & Andrés Solimano, 1993. "Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1993, Volume 8, pages 259-318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Alan Carruth & Andrew Dickerson & Andrew Henley, 2000. "Econometric Modelling of UK Aggregate Investment: The Role of Profits and Uncertainty," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(3), pages 276-300, June.
    4. repec:dgr:rugsom:03e40 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Holt, Richard W. P., 2003. "Investment and dividends under irreversibility and financial constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 467-502, January.
    6. Le, K.N. & Hermes, N. & Lanjouw, G., 2003. "Irreversible investment and uncertainty : an empirical study of rice mills in the Mekong river delta, Vietnam," Research Report 03E40, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    7. Guiseppe Bertola & Ricardo J. Caballero, 1994. "Irreversibility and Aggregate Investment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(2), pages 223-246.
    8. Richard W P Holt, 2000. "Investment and Dividends under Irreversibility and Financial Constraints (first version)," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 49, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. K. Farla, 2014. "Determinants of firms' investment behaviour: a multilevel approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(34), pages 4231-4241, December.
    2. Havvanur Feyza Erdem & George Tawadros, 2020. "Estimating An Optimal Macroeconomic Uncertainty Index For Australia," Working Papers 2020-02, DePauw University, School of Business and Leadership and Department of Economics and Management.
    3. Wolassa Lawisso Kumo, 2015. "Working Paper - 216 - Inflation Targeting Monetary Policy, Inflation Volatility and Economic Growth in South Africa," Working Paper Series 2154, African Development Bank.
    4. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Sin-Yu Ho, 2020. "The effects of transitory and permanent inflation uncertainty on investment in Ghana," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 195-217, February.
    5. Charteris, Ailie & Kallinterakis, Vasileios, 2021. "Feedback trading in retail-dominated assets: Evidence from the gold bullion coin market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    6. Eugene Msizi Buthelezi, 2023. "Dynamics of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Economic Growth in the Presence of Fiscal Consolidation in South Africa from 1994 to 2022," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-24, April.
    7. Edwards, Lawrence J & Garlick, Robert, 2008. "Trade flows and the exchange rate in South Africa," MPRA Paper 36666, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Ibrahim, Mansor H. & Ahmed, Huson Joher Ali, 2014. "Permanent and transitory oil volatility and aggregate investment in Malaysia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 552-563.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alan Carruth & Andy Dickerson & Andrew Henley, 2000. "What do We Know About Investment Under Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 119-154, April.
    2. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2020. "What is the investment loss due to uncertainty?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    3. Joseph P. Byrne & E. Philip Davis, 2005. "Investment and Uncertainty in the G7," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(1), pages 1-32, April.
    4. Alessandra Guariglia & John Tsoukalas & Serafeim Tsoukas, 2010. "Investment, irreversibility, and financing constraints in transition economies," Discussion Papers 10/03, University of Nottingham, School of Economics.
    5. Caggese, Andrea, 2007. "Financing constraints, irreversibility, and investment dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2102-2130, October.
    6. Sing, Tien-Foo & Patel, Kanak, 2001. "Evidence of irreversibility in the UK property market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 313-334.
    7. Danny Cassimon & Peter-Jan Engelen & Hilde Meersman & Martine Van Wouwe, 2003. "Investment, uncertainty and irreversibility: evidence from Belgian accounting data," Chapters, in: Paul Butzen & Catherine Fuss (ed.), Firms’ Investment and Finance Decisions, chapter 9, pages 194-226, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Jan Dehn, 2000. "Private Investment in Developing Countries: The Effects of Commodity Shocks and Uncertainty," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2000-11, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Jyh‐Bang Jou & Tan (Charlene) Lee, 2021. "Uncertainty, hiring and firing costs, and the determinants of profit‐sharing rules," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 185-197, January.
    10. Gerald Stuber, 2001. "Implications of Uncertainty about Long-Run Inflation and the Price Level," Staff Working Papers 01-16, Bank of Canada.
    11. Chirinko, Robert S. & Schaller, Huntley, 2009. "The irreversibility premium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 390-408, April.
    12. Ahsan Abbas & Eatzaz Ahmed & Fazal Husain, 2019. "Political and Economic Uncertainty and Investment Behaviour in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 58(3), pages 307-331.
    13. Chen, Yu-Fu & Funke, Michael, 2003. "Option Value, Policy Uncertainty, and the Foreign Direct Investment Decision," HWWA Discussion Papers 234, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    14. El-Shazly Alaa, 2004. "Investment Under Uncertainty in Egypt: A Real-Options Approach," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 51-60, August.
    15. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2007. "Political Risk, Economic Integration, and the Foreign Direct Investment Decision," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 208, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    16. Pereira, Rodrigo Mendes, 2008. "Investment and Uncertainty in Machinery and Real Estate," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 62(3), November.
    17. Johansson, Anders & Modén, Karl-Markus, 1997. "Investment Plan Revisions and Share Price Volatility," Working Papers 57, National Institute of Economic Research.
    18. Jérôme Bourdieu & Benoît Coeuré & Béatrice Sédillot, 1997. "Investissement, incertitude et irréversibilité. Quelques développements récents de la théorie de l'investissement," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(1), pages 23-53.
    19. Demers, Fanny S. & Demers, Michel & Schaller, Huntley, 1994. "Irreversible investment and costs of adjustment," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9416, CEPREMAP.
    20. Muyambiri, Brian & Chiwira, Oscar & Enowbi Batuo, Michael & Chiranga, Ngonidzashe, 2010. "The Causal Relationship between Private and Public Investment in Zimbabwe," MPRA Paper 26671, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:74:y:2006:i:2:p:190-204. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/essaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.