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Does per capita income cause homicide rates? An application of an IV spatial model

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  • Rogério Pereira
  • Tatiane Almeida de Menezes

Abstract

Criminality is an increasing problem in urban centres. In this paper, we are contributing to this literature estimating the causal relationship between per capita incomes on homicides rates. The simultaneity between those two variables and spatial spillover make our aim challenging. To deal with this problem, we combine two regression techniques: Instrumental variable and spatial econometrics. Using rainfall as an instrument, we have found that increases of GDP per capita by 1% reduces the municipality homicides by 0.79% in total, 0.5% directly and 0.3% indirectly. In other words, the indirect effect arises because of the influence of each variable on the neighbours' dependent variable and these spillovers amplify the GDP per capita effect on homicides rates. Another finding relevant is climate change. We have done a forecasting exercise decreasing the rainfall around 5 SE (− 28.5ml3) , then we have found that homicides rates increased 4%. La criminalidad es un problema en aumento en los centros urbanos. En este artículo se contribuye a la literatura sobre el tema mediante la estimación de la relación causal entre los ingresos per cápita y las tasas de homicidios. La simultaneidad entre esas dos variables y el spillover espacial hacen que nuestro objetivo sea un desafío. Para tratar este problema, se combinaron dos métodos de regresión: el de variables instrumentales y el de econometría espacial. Utilizando la lluvia como instrumento, se encontró que el aumento del PIB per cápita en un 1% reduce los homicidios de los municipios en un 0,79% en total (un 0,5% directamente y un 0,3% indirectamente). En otras palabras, el efecto indirecto surge debido a la influencia de cada variable en la variable dependiente de los vecinos y estos spillovers amplifican el efecto del PIB per cápita en las tasas de homicidios. Otro hallazgo relevante es el cambio climático. Cuando se realizó un pronóstico basado en una disminución de la lluvia de alrededor de 5 EEM (–28,5 ml3), se encontró que los índices de homicidios aumentan en un 4%. 犯罪は都市中心部において増加している問題である。本稿では、一人あたりの所得と殺人発生率の因果関係を推計する。これら2つの変数と空間的スピルオーバーの同時性が標的である。この問題に対処するために、操作変数法と空間的計量経済学的手法の2つの回帰法を組み合わせた。降水量を操作変数として用いて、一人当たりGDPの1%の増加が、都市の殺人発生率は全体で0.79%、直接的には0.5%、間接的には0.3%減少することがわかった。すなわち、間接的な影響は各変数が近隣部の従属変数に影響を与えるために生じるものであり、この波及効果は一人当たりGDPの殺人発生率に対する影響を増幅するといえる。もう一つの重要な知見は気候変動であった。降水量をおよそ5SE(−28.5 ml)減少させる予測演習を行ったところ、殺人発生率は4%増加することがわかった。

Suggested Citation

  • Rogério Pereira & Tatiane Almeida de Menezes, 2021. "Does per capita income cause homicide rates? An application of an IV spatial model," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 1388-1400, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:rgscpp:v:13:y:2021:i:4:p:1388-1400
    DOI: 10.1111/rsp3.12301
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