IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/revinw/v63y2017i3p542-563.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Shifting Taxes from Labor to Consumption: More Employment and more Inequality?

Author

Listed:
  • Nico Pestel
  • Eric Sommer

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of shifting taxes from labor income to consumption on labor supply and the distribution of income in Germany. We simulate stepwise increases in the value-added tax (VAT) rate, which are compensated by revenue-neutral reductions in income-related taxes. We differentiate between the personal income tax (PIT) and social security contributions (SSC). Based on a dual data base and a microsimulation model of household labor supply behavior, we find a regressive impact of such a tax shift in the short run. When accounting for labor supply adjustments, the adverse distributional impact persists for PIT reductions, while the overall effects on inequality and progressivity become lower when payroll taxes are reduced. This is partly due to increases in aggregate labor supply, resulting from higher work incentives.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Nico Pestel & Eric Sommer, 2017. "Shifting Taxes from Labor to Consumption: More Employment and more Inequality?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 63(3), pages 542-563, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:revinw:v:63:y:2017:i:3:p:542-563
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/roiw.12232
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Buscher, Herbert S. & Buslei, Hermann & Goggelmann, Klaus & Koschel, Henrike & Schmidt, Tobias F. N. & Steiner, Viktor & Winker, Peter, 2001. "Empirical macro models under test. A comparative simulation study of the employment effects of a revenue neutral cut in social security contributions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 455-474, August.
    2. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew Weinzierl & Danny Yagan, 2009. "Optimal Taxation in Theory and Practice," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(4), pages 147-174, Fall.
    3. Jan Marcus & Rainer Siegers & Markus M. Grabka, 2013. "Preparation of Data from the New SOEP Consumption Module: Editing, Imputation, and Smoothing," Data Documentation 70, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Cremer, Helmuth & Pestieau, Pierre & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2001. "Direct versus Indirect Taxation: The Design of the Tax Structure Revisted," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(3), pages 781-799, August.
    5. Blumkin, Tomer & Ruffle, Bradley J. & Ganun, Yosef, 2012. "Are income and consumption taxes ever really equivalent? Evidence from a real-effort experiment with real goods," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1200-1219.
    6. Hassett, Kevin A & Metcalf, Gilbert E, 1999. "Investment with Uncertain Tax Policy: Does Random Tax Policy Discourage Investment?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(457), pages 372-393, July.
    7. Figari, Francesco & Colombino, Ugo & Coda Moscarola, Flavia & Locatelli, Marilena, 2014. "Shifting taxes from labour to property. A simulation under labour market equilibrium," EUROMOD Working Papers EM20/14, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    8. Lichter, Andreas & Peichl, Andreas & Siegloch, Sebastian, 2015. "The own-wage elasticity of labor demand: A meta-regression analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 94-119.
    9. André Decoster & Jason Loughrey & Cathal O'Donoghue & Dirk Verwerft, 2010. "How regressive are indirect taxes? A microsimulation analysis for five European countries," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 326-350.
    10. Decoster, André & Ochmann, Richard & Spiritus, Kevin, 2013. "Integrating indirect taxation into EUROMOD. Documentation and results for Germany," EUROMOD Working Papers EM20/13, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    11. David Altig, 2001. "Simulating Fundamental Tax Reform in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 574-595, June.
    12. Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Violeta Vulovic & Yongzheng Liu, 2011. "Direct versus Indirect Taxation: Trends, Theory, and Economic Significance," Chapters, in: Emilio Albi & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez (ed.), The Elgar Guide to Tax Systems, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. John Creedy & Alan Duncan, 2005. "Aggregating Labour Supply and Feedback Effects in Microsimulation," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 8(3), pages 277-290, September.
    14. Hoynes, Hilary Williamson, 1996. "Welfare Transfers in Two-Parent Families: Labor Supply and Welfare Participation under AFDC-UP," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 295-332, March.
    15. Ruud de Mooij & Michael Keen, 2012. ""Fiscal Devaluation" and Fiscal Consolidation: The VAT in Troubled Times," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 443-485, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Fidel Picos-Sánchez & Alastair Thomas, 2015. "A Revenue-neutral Shift from SSC to VAT: Analysis of the Distributional Impact for 12 EU-OECD Countries," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 71(2), pages 278-298, June.
    17. Martin Feldstein, 1978. "The Welfare Cost of Capital Income Taxation," NBER Chapters, in: Research in Taxation, pages 29-51, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Olivier Bargain & Kristian Orsini & Andreas Peichl, 2012. "Comparing Labor Supply Elasticities in Europe and the US: New Results," Working Papers halshs-00805736, HAL.
    19. Peichl, Andreas & Siegloch, Sebastian, 2012. "Accounting for labor demand effects in structural labor supply models," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 129-138.
    20. Emmanuel Saez & Manos Matsaganis & Panos Tsakloglou, 2012. "Earnings Determination and Taxes: Evidence From a Cohort-Based Payroll Tax Reform in Greece," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(1), pages 493-533.
    21. Wolfram F. Richter & Robin W. Boadway, 2005. "Trading Off Tax Distortion and Tax Evasion," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 7(3), pages 361-381, August.
    22. Gilbert E. Metcalf, 1994. "Life Cycle versus Annual Perspectives on the Incidence of a Value Added Tax," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 8, pages 45-64, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Savage, Michael & Callan, Tim, 2015. "Modelling the Impact of Direct and Indirect Taxes Using Complementary Datasets," IZA Discussion Papers 8897, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    24. Cathal O'Donoghue & Massimo Baldini, 2004. "Modelling the Redistributive Impact of Indirect Taxes in Europe: An Application of EUROMOD," Working Papers 0077, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2004.
    25. Naito Hisahiro, 2007. "Atkinson-Stiglitz Theorem with Endogenous Human Capital Accumulation," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, September.
    26. Olivier Bargain & Kristian Orsini & Andreas Peichl, 2014. "Comparing Labor Supply Elasticities in Europe and the United States: New Results," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 49(3), pages 723-838.
    27. Feil, Michael & Klinger, Sabine & Zika, Gerd, 2006. "Sozialabgaben und Beschäftigung : Simulationen mit drei makroökonomischen Modellen," IAB-Discussion Paper 200622, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    28. Timm Bönke & Giacomo Corneo & Holger Lüthen, 2015. "Lifetime Earnings Inequality in Germany," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 171-208.
    29. Cremer, Helmuth & Gahvari, Firouz, 1995. "Uncertainty, Optimal Taxation and the Direct versus Indirect Tax Controversy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1165-1179, September.
    30. Auerbach, Alan J. & Hines, James Jr., 2002. "Taxation and economic efficiency," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 21, pages 1347-1421, Elsevier.
    31. James M. Poterba, 2012. "Comment on "'Fiscal Devaluation' and Fiscal Consolidation: The VAT in Troubled Times"," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 486-493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Auerbach, Alan J., 1985. "The theory of excess burden and optimal taxation," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 61-127, Elsevier.
    33. Rupert Sausgruber & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2005. "Testing the Mill hypothesis of fiscal illusion," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 39-68, January.
    34. Saez, Emmanuel, 2002. "The desirability of commodity taxation under non-linear income taxation and heterogeneous tastes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 217-230, February.
    35. repec:bla:revinw:v:43:y:1997:i:3:p:283-95 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. James Banks & Richard Blundell & Arthur Lewbel, 1997. "Quadratic Engel Curves And Consumer Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 527-539, November.
    37. Suits, Daniel B, 1977. "Measurement of Tax Progressivity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 747-752, September.
    38. John Creedy, 1997. "Lifetime Inequality And Tax Progressivity With Alternative Income Concepts," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 43(3), pages 283-295, September.
    39. Löffler, Max & Peichl, Andreas & Pestel, Nico & Siegloch, Sebastian & Sommer, Eric, 2014. "Documentation IZA?MOD v3.0: The IZA Policy Simulation Model," IZA Discussion Papers 8553, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    40. Bohringer, Christoph & Boeters, Stefan & Feil, Michael, 2005. "Taxation and unemployment: an applied general equilibrium approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 81-108, January.
    41. Atkinson, A. B. & Stiglitz, J. E., 1976. "The design of tax structure: Direct versus indirect taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1-2), pages 55-75.
    42. Martin Beznoska & Richard Ochmann, 2013. "The interest elasticity of household savings: a structural approach with German micro data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 371-399, August.
    43. Gert G. Wagner & Joachim R. Frick & Jürgen Schupp, 2007. "The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) – Scope, Evolution and Enhancements," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 127(1), pages 139-169.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oguzhan Akgun & Boris Cournède & Jean-Marc Fournier, 2017. "The effects of the tax mix on inequality and growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1447, OECD Publishing.
    2. Christl, Michael & Papini, Andrea & Tumino, Alberto, 2020. "Heterogeneity in effective VAT rates across native and migrant households in France, Germany and Spain," GLO Discussion Paper Series 723, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. Matus Senaj & Zuzana Siebertova & Norbert Svarda & Jana Valachyova, 2018. "The Evaluation of Fiscal Consolidation Strategies," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(3), pages 39-58.
    4. José Alves & António Afonso, 2019. "Tax structure for consumption and income inequality: an empirical assessment," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 337-364, November.
    5. D'ANDRIA Diego & DEBACKER Jason & EVANS Richard W. & PYCROFT Jonathan & ZACHLOD-JELEC Magdalena, 2021. "Taxing income or consumption: macroeconomic and distributional effects for Italy," JRC Working Papers on Taxation & Structural Reforms 2021-13, Joint Research Centre.
    6. Alena Kireyeva & Milyausha Pinskaya, 2022. "Providing Incentives for Intellectual Labor through Tax Policy in Belarus," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 3, pages 61-73, June.
    7. Jörg Paetzold & Markus Tiefenbacher, 2018. "Distributional and revenue effects of a tax shift from labor to property," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(5), pages 1215-1251, October.
    8. Ciminelli, Gabriele & Ernst, Ekkehard & Merola, Rossana & Giuliodori, Massimo, 2019. "The composition effects of tax-based consolidation on income inequality," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 107-124.
    9. Doorley, Karina & Callan, Tim & Savage, Michael, 2018. "Inequality in EU crisis countries. How effective were automatic stabilisers?," EUROMOD Working Papers EM10/18, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    10. Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Den Strukturwandel meistern. Jahresgutachten 2019/20 [Dealing with Structural Change. Annual Report 2019/20]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201920.
    11. Nicola Curci & Marco Savegnago, 2019. "Shifting taxes from labour to consumption: the efficiency-equity trade-off," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1244, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Ruppert, Kilian & Schön, Matthias & Stähler, Nikolai, 2024. "Consumption taxation to finance pension payments," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    13. Bart Capéau & André Decoster & Stijn Van Houtven, 2024. "Piecemeal Modeling of the Effects of Joint Direct and Indirect Tax Reforms," Public Finance Review, , vol. 52(1), pages 111-149, January.
    14. Robert Hagemann, 2018. "Tax Policies for Inclusive Growth: Prescription versus Practice," OECD Economic Policy Papers 24, OECD Publishing.
    15. Argilés-Bosch, Josep Mª & Ravenda, Diego & Garcia-Blandón, Josep, 2021. "E-commerce and labour tax avoidance," CRITICAL PERSPECTIVES ON ACCOUNTING, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    16. GÁL, Róbert Iván & VANHUYSSE, Pieter & MEDGYESI, Márton, 2023. "Taxing Reproduction : The Invisible Transfer Cost of Rearing Children in Europe," CEI Working Paper Series 2023-04, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    17. Karina Doorley & Tim Callan & Michael Savage, 2021. "What drove income inequality in EU crisis countries during the Great Recession?," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(2), pages 319-343, June.
    18. Thomas Leoni & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2020. "Senkung der Lohnnebenkosten und Finanzierungsvarianten. Bisherige Erkenntnisse und internationale Reformbeispiele," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 66851.
    19. Vanesa Jorda & Jose M. Alonso, 2020. "What works to mitigate and reduce relative (and absolute) inequality?: A systematic review," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-152, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pestel, Nico & Sommer, Eric, 2013. "Shifting Taxes from Labor to Consumption: Efficient, but Regressive?," IZA Discussion Papers 7804, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Löffler, Max & Peichl, Andreas & Pestel, Nico & Siegloch, Sebastian & Sommer, Eric, 2014. "Documentation IZA?MOD v3.0: The IZA Policy Simulation Model," IZA Discussion Papers 8553, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Mauro Mastrogiacomo & Nicole M. Bosch & Miriam D. A. C. Gielen & Egbert L. W. Jongen, 2017. "Heterogeneity in Labour Supply Responses: Evidence from a Major Tax Reform," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(5), pages 769-796, October.
    4. Spencer Bastani & Sebastian Koehne, 2022. "How Should Consumption Be Taxed?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10038, CESifo.
    5. Radulescu, Doina & Feger, Fabian, 2017. "One vs. Two Instruments for Redistribution: The Case of Public Utility Pricing," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168138, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Fabian Feger & Doina Radulescu & Doina Maria Radulescu, 2018. "Redistribution through Income Taxation and Public Utility Pricing in the Presence of Energy Efficiency Considerations," CESifo Working Paper Series 7195, CESifo.
    7. Feger, Fabian & Radulescu, Doina, 2020. "When environmental and redistribution concerns collide: The case of electricity pricing," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    8. Thomas Leoni & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2020. "Senkung der Lohnnebenkosten und Finanzierungsvarianten. Bisherige Erkenntnisse und internationale Reformbeispiele," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 66851.
    9. Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino, 2014. "Labour Supply Models," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling, volume 127, pages 167-221, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    10. Löffler, Max & Peichl, Andreas & Siegloch, Sebastian, 2013. "Validating Structural Labor Supply Models," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79819, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Rezai, Armon & Tovar Reanos, Miguel, 2022. "Gathering support for green tax reform: Evidence from German household surveys," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    12. Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino, 2018. "Structural Labour Supply Models and Microsimulation," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(1), pages 162-197.
    13. Bart Capéau & André Decoster & Stijn Van Houtven, 2024. "Piecemeal Modeling of the Effects of Joint Direct and Indirect Tax Reforms," Public Finance Review, , vol. 52(1), pages 111-149, January.
    14. Harvey Cutler & Martin Shields & Stephen Davies, 2018. "Can State Tax Policy Increase Economic Activity and Reduce Inequality?," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 142-164, March.
    15. Buhlmann, Florian & Hebsaker, Michael & Kreuz, Tobias & Schmidhäuser, Jakob & Siegloch, Sebastian & Stichnoth, Holger, 2022. "ZEW-EviSTA: A microsimulation model of the German tax and transfer system," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-026, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    16. Spencer Bastani & Firouz Gahvari & Luca Micheletto, 2023. "Nonlinear taxation of income and education in the presence of income‐misreporting," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 25(4), pages 679-726, August.
    17. Stefan Bach & Peter Haan & Kai-Uwe Müller & Katharina Wrohlich & Björn Fischer, 2016. "Gutachten Rentenversicherung - Teil 1: Zum Zusammenhang von Beschäftigung und Beitragssatz zu den Sozialversicherungen: Forschungsprojekt im Auftrag von Bündnis 90/Die Grünen," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 109, number pbk109.
    18. Sanz Labrador, Ismael & Sanz-Sanz, José Félix, 2013. "Política fiscal y crecimiento económico: consideraciones microeconómicas y relaciones macroeconómicas," Macroeconomía del Desarrollo 5367, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    19. Coda Moscarola, Flavia & Colombino, Ugo & Figari, Francesco & Locatelli, Marilena, 2020. "Shifting taxes away from labour enhances equity and fiscal efficiency," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 367-384.
    20. Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Violeta Vulovic & Yongzheng Liu, 2011. "Direct versus Indirect Taxation: Trends, Theory, and Economic Significance," Chapters, in: Emilio Albi & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez (ed.), The Elgar Guide to Tax Systems, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:revinw:v:63:y:2017:i:3:p:542-563. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iariwea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.