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Shifting Taxes from Labor to Consumption: More Employment and more Inequality?

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  • Nico Pestel
  • Eric Sommer

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of shifting taxes from labor income to consumption on labor supply and the distribution of income in Germany. We simulate stepwise increases in the value-added tax (VAT) rate, which are compensated by revenue-neutral reductions in income-related taxes. We differentiate between the personal income tax (PIT) and social security contributions (SSC). Based on a dual data base and a microsimulation model of household labor supply behavior, we find a regressive impact of such a tax shift in the short run. When accounting for labor supply adjustments, the adverse distributional impact persists for PIT reductions, while the overall effects on inequality and progressivity become lower when payroll taxes are reduced. This is partly due to increases in aggregate labor supply, resulting from higher work incentives.
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  • Nico Pestel & Eric Sommer, 2017. "Shifting Taxes from Labor to Consumption: More Employment and more Inequality?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 63(3), pages 542-563, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:revinw:v:63:y:2017:i:3:p:542-563
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    Cited by:

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    2. Matus Senaj & Zuzana Siebertova & Norbert Svarda & Jana Valachyova, 2018. "The Evaluation of Fiscal Consolidation Strategies," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(3), pages 39-58.
    3. Alena Kireyeva & Milyausha Pinskaya, 2022. "Providing Incentives for Intellectual Labor through Tax Policy in Belarus," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 3, pages 61-73, June.
    4. Doorley, Karina & Callan, Tim & Savage, Michael, 2018. "Inequality in EU crisis countries. How effective were automatic stabilisers?," EUROMOD Working Papers EM10/18, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    5. Nicola Curci & Marco Savegnago, 2019. "Shifting taxes from labour to consumption: the efficiency-equity trade-off," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1244, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Ciminelli, Gabriele & Ernst, Ekkehard & Merola, Rossana & Giuliodori, Massimo, 2019. "The composition effects of tax-based consolidation on income inequality," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 107-124.
    7. Argilés-Bosch, Josep Mª & Ravenda, Diego & Garcia-Blandón, Josep, 2021. "E-commerce and labour tax avoidance," CRITICAL PERSPECTIVES ON ACCOUNTING, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    8. GÁL, Róbert Iván & VANHUYSSE, Pieter & MEDGYESI, Márton, 2023. "Taxing Reproduction : The Invisible Transfer Cost of Rearing Children in Europe," CEI Working Paper Series 2023-04, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    9. Thomas Leoni & Margit Schratzenstaller-Altzinger, 2020. "Senkung der Lohnnebenkosten und Finanzierungsvarianten. Bisherige Erkenntnisse und internationale Reformbeispiele," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 66851.
    10. Oguzhan Akgun & Boris Cournède & Jean-Marc Fournier, 2017. "The effects of the tax mix on inequality and growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1447, OECD Publishing.
    11. José Alves & António Afonso, 2019. "Tax structure for consumption and income inequality: an empirical assessment," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 337-364, November.
    12. D'ANDRIA Diego & DEBACKER Jason & EVANS Richard W. & PYCROFT Jonathan & ZACHLOD-JELEC Magdalena, 2021. "Taxing income or consumption: macroeconomic and distributional effects for Italy," JRC Working Papers on Taxation & Structural Reforms 2021-13, Joint Research Centre.
    13. Jörg Paetzold & Markus Tiefenbacher, 2018. "Distributional and revenue effects of a tax shift from labor to property," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(5), pages 1215-1251, October.
    14. Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Den Strukturwandel meistern. Jahresgutachten 2019/20 [Dealing with Structural Change. Annual Report 2019/20]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201920, February.
    15. Ruppert, Kilian & Schön, Matthias & Stähler, Nikolai, 2024. "Consumption taxation to finance pension payments," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    16. Bart Capéau & André Decoster & Stijn Van Houtven, 2024. "Piecemeal Modeling of the Effects of Joint Direct and Indirect Tax Reforms," Public Finance Review, , vol. 52(1), pages 111-149, January.
    17. Robert Hagemann, 2018. "Tax Policies for Inclusive Growth: Prescription versus Practice," OECD Economic Policy Papers 24, OECD Publishing.
    18. Karina Doorley & Tim Callan & Michael Savage, 2021. "What drove income inequality in EU crisis countries during the Great Recession?," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(2), pages 319-343, June.
    19. Vanesa Jorda & Jose M. Alonso, 2020. "What works to mitigate and reduce relative (and absolute) inequality?: A systematic review," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-152, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies

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