IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/reviec/v23y2015i5p996-1022.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Tobin Tax and Volatility: A Threshold Quantile Autoregressive Regression Framework

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier Damette
  • Beum-Jo Park

Abstract

From an original data set on the euro–dollar and on the won–dollar currency pairs (2008–2010), we conduct a threshold quantile autoregressive model to explain the role of a Tobin tax (TT) on the exchange rate volatility, taking into account two types of nonlinearity (regimes and quantiles). We find evidence that the impact of a TT would not be monotonic. A TT may be a good instrument to stabilize foreign exchange volatility only in normal times and/or in efficient markets. In contrast, a TT could be counterproductive in turbulent periods by increasing the volatility. In addition, by comparing a major currency pair (euro/dollar) and a minor currency pair (won/dollar), it appears that the potential stabilizing effect of a TT would be more clear-cut in the low volatility regime of a major currency pair, similar to the euro/dollar. Our results do not corroborate the previous studies that derived a monotonic and positive impact of a TT on volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Damette & Beum-Jo Park, 2015. "Tobin Tax and Volatility: A Threshold Quantile Autoregressive Regression Framework," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 996-1022, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:23:y:2015:i:5:p:996-1022
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/roie.12193
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harald Hau, 2006. "The Role of Transaction Costs for Financial Volatility: Evidence from the Paris Bourse," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(4), pages 862-890, June.
    2. Luc Bauwens & Dagfinn Rime & Genaro Sucarrat, 2008. "Exchange rate volatility and the mixture of distribution hypothesis," Studies in Empirical Economics, in: Luc Bauwens & Winfried Pohlmeier & David Veredas (ed.), High Frequency Financial Econometrics, pages 7-29, Springer.
    3. Frank Westerhoff, 2003. "Heterogeneous traders and the Tobin tax," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 53-70, February.
    4. Melvin, Michael & Taylor, Mark P., 2009. "The crisis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1317-1330, December.
    5. Alexander Mende & Lukas Menkhoff, 2003. "Tobin Tax Effects Seen from the Foreign Exchange Market's Microstructure," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 227-247, July.
    6. Pellizzari, Paolo & Westerhoff, Frank, 2009. "Some effects of transaction taxes under different microstructures," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 850-863, December.
    7. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1994. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris & Joon Y. Park, 1988. "Testing for a Unit Root in the Presence of a Maintained Trend," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 880, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    9. Robert Bloomfield & Maureen O'Hara & Gideon Saar, 2009. "How Noise Trading Affects Markets: An Experimental Analysis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2275-2302, June.
    10. Davidson, Paul, 1997. "Are Grains of Sand in the Wheels of International Finance Sufficient to Do the Job When Boulders Are Often Required?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(442), pages 671-686, May.
    11. Hanke, Michael & Huber, Jürgen & Kirchler, Michael & Sutter, Matthias, 2010. "The economic consequences of a Tobin tax--An experimental analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(1-2), pages 58-71, May.
    12. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March.
    13. Jones, Charles M & Seguin, Paul J, 1997. "Transaction Costs and Price Volatility: Evidence from Commission Deregulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 728-737, September.
    14. Ole E. Barndorff‐Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2002. "Econometric analysis of realized volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(2), pages 253-280, May.
    15. James Tobin, 1978. "A Proposal for International Monetary Reform," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 4(3-4), pages 153-159, Jul/Oct.
    16. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 537-569.
    17. Westerhoff, Frank H. & Dieci, Roberto, 2006. "The effectiveness of Keynes-Tobin transaction taxes when heterogeneous agents can trade in different markets: A behavioral finance approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 293-322, February.
    18. Markku Lanne & Timo Vesala, 2010. "The effect of a transaction tax on exchange rate volatility," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 123-133.
    19. repec:bla:scandj:v:78:y:1976:i:2:p:229-48 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Robert Z. Aliber & Bhagwan Chowdhry & Shu Yan, 2003. "Some Evidence that a Tobin Tax on Foreign Exchange Transactions May Increase Volatility," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 481-510.
    21. Vigfusson, Robert, 1997. "Switching between Chartists and Fundamentalists: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 291-305, October.
    22. King, Michael R. & Osler, Carol L. & Rime, Dagfinn, 2013. "The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange: Looking back and looking forward," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 95-119.
    23. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Ebens, Heiko, 2001. "The distribution of realized stock return volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 43-76, July.
    24. Ingrid M. Werner, 2003. "Comment on ‘Some Evidence that a Tobin Tax on Foreign Exchange Transactions may Increase Volatility’," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 7(3), pages 511-514.
    25. Hartmann, Philipp, 1998. "Do Reuters spreads reflect currencies' differences in global trading activity?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 757-784, October.
    26. Kang Shi & Juanyi Xu, 2009. "Entry cost, the Tobin tax, and noise trading in the foreign exchange market," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(4), pages 1501-1526, November.
    27. G. Ehrenstein & F. Westerhoff & D. Stauffer, 2005. "Tobin tax and market depth," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 213-218.
    28. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    29. Frankel, Jeffrey, 1995. "How Well Do Foreign Exchange Markets Function: Might a Tobin Tax Help?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233420, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    30. Antonio F. Galvao Jr. & Gabriel Montes‐Rojas & Jose Olmo, 2011. "Threshold quantile autoregressive models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 253-267, May.
    31. Neil McCulloch & Grazia Pacillo, 2010. "The Tobin Tax A Review of the Evidence," Working Paper Series 1611, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    32. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-155, January.
    33. Hartmann, Philipp, 1999. "Trading volumes and transaction costs in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from daily dollar-yen spot data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 801-824, May.
    34. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    35. Bianconi, Ginestra & Galla, Tobias & Marsili, Matteo & Pin, Paolo, 2009. "Effects of Tobin taxes in minority game markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 231-240, May.
    36. Yongyang Su & Lan Zheng, 2011. "The Impact of Securities Transaction Taxes on the Chinese Stock Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 32-46, January.
    37. Umlauf, Steven R., 1993. "Transaction taxes and the behavior of the Swedish stock market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 227-240, April.
    38. Frank M. Song & Junxi Zhang, 2005. "Securities Transaction Tax and Market Volatility," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(506), pages 1103-1120, October.
    39. Mohammad Majand & Kenneth Yung, 1991. "A GARCH examination of the relationship between volume and price variability in futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 613-621, October.
    40. Ingrid M. Werner, 2003. "Comment on `Some Evidence that a Tobin Tax on Foreign Exchange Transactions may Increase Volatility'," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 511-514.
    41. Park, Beum-Jo, 2014. "Time-varying, heterogeneous risk aversion and dynamics of asset prices among boundedly rational agents," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 150-159.
    42. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:1:p:219-265 is not listed on IDEAS
    43. Haberer, Markus, 2004. "Might a Securities Transactions Tax Mitigate Excess Volatility? Some Evidence From the Literature," CoFE Discussion Papers 04/06, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    44. G. Bird & R. Rajan, 2001. "Would International Currency Taxation and Currency Stabilisation in Developing Countries?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 21-38.
    45. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1990. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 181-185, May.
    46. Ms. Thornton Matheson, 2011. "Taxing Financial Transactions: Issues and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2011/054, International Monetary Fund.
    47. Park, Beum-Jo, 2011. "Asymmetric herding as a source of asymmetric return volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2657-2665, October.
    48. Mannaro, Katiuscia & Marchesi, Michele & Setzu, Alessio, 2008. "Using an artificial financial market for assessing the impact of Tobin-like transaction taxes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 445-462, August.
    49. Hau, Harald, 1998. "Competitive Entry and Endogenous Risk in the Foreign Exchange Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 757-787.
    50. Park, Beum-Jo, 2010. "Surprising information, the MDH, and the relationship between volatility and trading volume," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 344-366, August.
    51. repec:bla:intfin:v:6:y:2003:i:2:p:227-47 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lihui Wang & Zhihong Liu & Huailong Shi, 2022. "The Impact of the Pilot Free Trade Zone on Regional Financial Development," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 30(5), pages 154-184, September.
    2. Camille Aït-Youcef, 2019. "How index investment impacts commodities : A story about the financialization of agricultural commodities," Post-Print hal-03484371, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Damette, Olivier, 2016. "Mixture Distribution Hypothesis And The Impact Of A Tobin Tax On Exchange Rate Volatility: A Reassessment," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(6), pages 1600-1622, September.
    2. Alonso, Miguel A. & Rallo, Juan Ramón & Romero, Alberto, 2013. "El efecto de los impuestos a las transacciones financieras en la estabilidad de los mercados de capital. Un debate sin resolver," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(317), pages 207-231, enero-mar.
    3. Olivier Damette & St鰨ane Goutte, 2015. "Tobin tax and trading volume tightening: a reassessment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(29), pages 3124-3141, June.
    4. Olivier Damette & Stéphane Goutte, 2014. "Tobin tax and trading volume tightening: a reassessment," Working Papers halshs-00926805, HAL.
    5. Neil McCulloch & Grazia Pacillo, 2010. "The Tobin Tax A Review of the Evidence," Working Paper Series 1611, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    6. Olivier Damette, 2009. "Exchange rate volatility and noise traders: Currency Transaction Tax as an eviction device," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 2449-2464.
    7. Bratis, Theodoros & Laopodis, Nikiforos T. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2017. "Assessing the impact of an EU financial transactions tax on asset volatility: An event study," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 12-24.
    8. Hanke, Michael & Huber, Jürgen & Kirchler, Michael & Sutter, Matthias, 2010. "The economic consequences of a Tobin tax--An experimental analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(1-2), pages 58-71, May.
    9. Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler & Daniel Kleinlercher & Matthias Sutter, 2017. "Market versus Residence Principle: Experimental Evidence on the Effects of a Financial Transaction Tax," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(605), pages 610-631, October.
    10. Westerhoff Frank H., 2008. "The Use of Agent-Based Financial Market Models to Test the Effectiveness of Regulatory Policies," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 228(2-3), pages 195-227, April.
    11. Michał Zator, 2014. "Transaction costs and volatility on Warsaw Stock Exchange: implications for financial transaction tax," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 45(4), pages 349-372.
    12. Capelle-Blancard, Gunther & Havrylchyk, Olena, 2016. "The impact of the French securities transaction tax on market liquidity and volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 166-178.
    13. Sirnes Espen, 2022. "Estimating the Effect of Transaction Costs Using the Tick Size as a Proxy," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 73(1), pages 57-77, April.
    14. Leal, Sandrine Jacob & Napoletano, Mauro, 2019. "Market stability vs. market resilience: Regulatory policies experiments in an agent-based model with low- and high-frequency trading," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 15-41.
    15. Sandrine Jacob Leal & Mauro Napoletano, 2017. "Market Stability vs. Market Resilience: Regulatory Policies Experiments in an Agent-Based Model with Low- and High-Frequency Trading," Post-Print hal-01768876, HAL.
    16. Filip Stanek & Jiri Kukacka, 2018. "The Impact of the Tobin Tax in a Heterogeneous Agent Model of the Foreign Exchange Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 865-892, April.
    17. Pellizzari, Paolo & Westerhoff, Frank, 2009. "Some effects of transaction taxes under different microstructures," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 850-863, December.
    18. Francis Bismans & Olivier Damette, 2012. "La taxe Tobin : une synthèse des travaux basés sur la théorie des jeux et l’économétrie," Working Papers of BETA 2012-09, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    19. Huber, Jürgen & Kleinlercher, Daniel & Kirchler, Michael, 2012. "The impact of a financial transaction tax on stylized facts of price returns—Evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1248-1266.
    20. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:23:y:2015:i:5:p:996-1022. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0965-7576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.