IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/reviec/v13y2005i5p973-984.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Taste Parameters as Model Residuals: Assessing the “Fit” of an Armington Trade Model

Author

Listed:
  • Russell H. Hillberry
  • Michael A. Anderson
  • Edward J. Balistreri
  • Alan K. Fox

Abstract

We note that calibration parameters in a multi‐country Armington trade model play a role similar to that of econometric residuals: they allow the model to fit the data exactly. We use this premise to evaluate the “fit” of a standard multi‐country computable general‐equilibrium model. We find that the model relies heavily on these parameters to explain the pattern of trade. In 33 of the 46 commodity groups we assess, modeled economic behavior explains less than 20% of the variation in bilateral trade. In a calibration‐ as‐estimation experiment, we estimate the commodity‐specific elasticities of substitution consistent with a well‐fitting model and find that they are substantially higher than widely accepted estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Russell H. Hillberry & Michael A. Anderson & Edward J. Balistreri & Alan K. Fox, 2005. "Taste Parameters as Model Residuals: Assessing the “Fit” of an Armington Trade Model," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 973-984, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:13:y:2005:i:5:p:973-984
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9396.2005.00548.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2005.00548.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2005.00548.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Welsch, Heinz, 2008. "Armington elasticities for energy policy modeling: Evidence from four European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2252-2264, September.
    2. Wenting Wang & Longbao Wei, 2021. "Impacts of agricultural price support policy on price variability and welfare: Evidence from China's soybean market," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(1), pages 3-17, January.
    3. Zhao, Xin & Calvin, Katherine V. & Wise, Marshall A. & Iyer, Gokul, 2021. "The role of global agricultural market integration in multiregional economic modeling: Using hindcast experiments to validate an Armington model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-17.
    4. Bajzik, Josef & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Schwarz, Jiri, 2020. "Estimating the Armington elasticity: The importance of study design and publication bias," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    5. Sang‐Wook (Stanley) Cho & Julián P. Díaz, 2016. "Accounting for Skill Premium Patterns: Evidence from the EU Accession," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(1), pages 271-299, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simon J.Evenett & Mia Mikic & Ravi Ratnayake (ed.), 2011. "Trade-led growth: A sound strategy for Asia," ARTNeT Books and Research Reports, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), number brr10.
    2. Henseler, Martin & Piot-Lepetit, Isabelle & Ferrari, Emanuele & Mellado, Aida Gonzalez & Banse, Martin & Grethe, Harald & Parisi, Claudia & Hélaine, Sophie, 2013. "On the asynchronous approvals of GM crops: Potential market impacts of a trade disruption of EU soy imports," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 166-176.
    3. Pavel Ciaian & d'Artis Kancs & Jan Pokrivcak, 2008. "Comparative Advantages, Transaction Costs and Factor Content of Agricultural Trade: Empirical Evidence from the CEE," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2008_03, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    4. Federico Perali & Stefania Lovo, 2009. "Counterfactual analysis using a regional dynamic general equilibrium model with historical calibration," Working Papers 58/2009, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    5. Dixon, Peter & Rimmer, Maureen, 2021. "A GTAP Historical Simulation from 2004 to 2014," Conference papers 333258, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Walmsley, Terrie L. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Ianchovichina, Elena, 2001. "Assessing the Impact of China’s WTO Accession on Foreign Ownership," Conference papers 330941, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2004. "Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 99-129, January.
    8. Eboli, Fabio & Parrado, Ramiro & Roson, Roberto, 2010. "Climate-change feedback on economic growth: explorations with a dynamic general equilibrium model," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(5), pages 515-533, October.
    9. Yu, Jisang & Villoria, Nelson B. & Hendricks, Nathan P., 2019. "The Incidence of Foreign Market Accessibility on Farmland Rental Rates," 2019: Recent Advances in Applied General Equilibrium Modeling: Relevance and Application to Agricultural Trade Analysis, December 8-10, 2019, Washington, DC 339333, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    10. Allexandro Mori Coelho & Maria Lúcia L. M. Pádua Lima & Samir Cury & Sergio Goldbaum, 2006. "Impacts Of The Proposals For Tariff Reductions In Nonagricultural Goods (Nama)," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 121, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    11. Mohamed Hedi Bchir & Lionel Fontagné & Sébastien Jean, 2005. "From Bound Duties to Actual Protection: Industrial Liberalisation in the Doha Round," Working Papers 2005-12, CEPII research center.
    12. Laborde, David & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2008. "Implications of the 2008 Doha Draft Agricultural and NAMA Market Access Modalities for Developing Countries," Conference papers 331719, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    13. Hübler, Michael, 2011. "Technology diffusion under contraction and convergence: A CGE analysis of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 131-142, January.
    14. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela & Lee Ann Jackson, 2008. "Recent and Prospective Adoption of Genetically Modified Cotton: A Global Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Economic Impacts," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(2), pages 265-296, January.
    15. Go, Delfin S. & Kearney, Marna & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2004. "An Analysis of South Africa's Value Added Tax," Conference papers 331274, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    16. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will & Zaman, Hassan, 2012. "Estimating the Short-Run Poverty Impacts of the 2010–11 Surge in Food Prices," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(11), pages 2302-2317.
    17. Martin, Will, 2021. "Tools for measuring the full impacts of agricultural interventions," IFPRI-MCC technical papers 2, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    18. Mutambatsere, Emelly, 2006. "Trade Policy Reforms in the Cereals Sector of the SADC Region: Implications on Food Security," Working Papers 127055, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    19. Itakura, Ken, 2019. "Incorporating Global Value Chains into the Dynamic GTAP Model [tentative results]," Conference papers 333111, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    20. Roson, Roberto & Damania, Richard, 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," Conference papers 332687, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:13:y:2005:i:5:p:973-984. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0965-7576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.