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A Model of Time‐on‐Market and Real Estate Price Under Sequential Search with Recall

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  • Ping Cheng
  • Zhenguo Lin
  • Yingchun Liu

Abstract

This article develops a model and provides a closed‐form formula to uncover the theoretical relationship between real estate price and time on market (TOM). Our model shows a nonlinear positive price‐TOM relationship, and it identifies three economic factors that affect the impact of TOM on sale price. We demonstrate that conventional metrics for real estate return and risk, which are borrowed in a naïve fashion from finance theory, do not account for marketing period risk and tend to overestimate real estate returns and underestimate real estate risks. Our model provides a simple way to correct such bias. This theory helps to explain the apparent “risk‐premium puzzle” in real estate.

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  • Ping Cheng & Zhenguo Lin & Yingchun Liu, 2008. "A Model of Time‐on‐Market and Real Estate Price Under Sequential Search with Recall," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 813-843, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:36:y:2008:i:4:p:813-843
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6229.2008.00231.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Kelley Cours Anderson & Julia Freybote & Kerry T. Manis, 2024. "The Impact of Virtual Marketing Strategies on the Price-TOM Relation," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 218-234, February.
    2. Fowler, Stuart J. & Fowler, Jennifer J. & Seagraves, Philip A. & Beauchamp, Charles F., 2018. "A fundamentalist theory of real estate market outcomes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 295-305.
    3. An, Zhiyong & Cheng, Ping & Lin, Zhenguo & Liu, Yingchun, 2013. "How do market conditions impact price-TOM relationship? Evidence from real estate owned (REO) sales," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 250-263.
    4. Matthew Cypher & S. McKay Price & Spenser Robinson & Michael J. Seiler, 2018. "Price Signals and Uncertainty in Commercial Real Estate Transactions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 246-263, August.
    5. Zhenguo Lin & Marcus Allen & Charles Carter, 2013. "Pet Policy and Housing Prices: Evidence from the Condominium Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 109-122, July.
    6. Eli Beracha & Julia Freybote & Zhenguo Lin & Michael J. Seiler, 2024. "Time on Market and the Cash Discount for Condos," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 188-217, February.
    7. Egozcue, Martin & Fuentes García, Luis & Zitikis, Ricardas, 2012. "An optimal strategy for maximizing the expected real-estate selling price: accept or reject an offer?," MPRA Paper 40694, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. P. S. Morawakage & G. Earl & B. Liu & E. Roca & A. Omura, 2023. "Housing Risk and Returns in Submarkets with Spatial Dependence and Heterogeneity," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 695-734, November.
    9. Thomas Paul & Thomas Walther & André Küster-Simic, 2022. "Empirical analysis of the illiquidity premia of German real estate securities," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(2), pages 203-260, June.
    10. Xun Bian & Raymond Brastow & Bennie Waller & Scott Wentland, 2021. "Foreclosure Externalities and Home Liquidity," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(3), pages 876-916, September.
    11. Xin He & Zhenguo Lin & Yingchun Liu & Michael J. Seiler, 2020. "Search Benefit in Housing Markets: An Inverted U‐Shaped Price and TOM Relation," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 48(3), pages 772-807, September.
    12. Ping Cheng & Zhenguo Lin & Yingchun Liu, 2021. "Competing Selling Strategies in the Housing Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 394-413, October.
    13. David Koch & Gunther Maier, 2015. "The influence of estate agencies’ location and time on Internet," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 35(2), pages 147-171, October.
    14. Ping Cheng & Zhenguo Lin & Yingchun Liu, 2010. "Home Price, Time-on-Market, and Seller Heterogeneity Under Changing Market Conditions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 272-293, October.
    15. Zhenguo Lin & Yingchun Liu, 2008. "Real Estate Returns and Risk with Heterogeneous Investors," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 753-776, December.
    16. Donner, Herman, 2017. "Determinants of a Foreclosure Discount," Working Paper Series 17/2, Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Real Estate and Construction Management & Banking and Finance.
    17. İnaltekin, Hazer & Jarrow, Robert A. & Sağlam, Mehmet & Yıldırım, Yıldıray, 2011. "Housing prices and the optimal time-on-the-market decision," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 171-179.
    18. Jason Kuruzovich & Siva Viswanathan & Ritu Agarwal, 2010. "Seller Search and Market Outcomes in Online Auctions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(10), pages 1702-1717, October.
    19. Stuart J. Fowler & Jennifer J. Wilgus, 2011. "An Estimatable DCDP Model of Search and Matching in Real Estate Markets," Working Papers 201105, Middle Tennessee State University, Department of Economics and Finance.
    20. Cheng, Ping & Lin, Zhenguo & Liu, Yingchun, 2010. "Illiquidity, transaction cost, and optimal holding period for real estate: Theory and application," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 109-118, June.
    21. Randy Anderson & Raymond Brastow & Geoffrey Turnbull & Bennie Waller, 2014. "Seller Over-Pricing and Listing Contract Length: The Effects of Endogenous Listing Contracts on Housing Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 434-450, October.
    22. Charles Carter & Zhenguo Lin & Marcus Allen & William Haloupek, 2013. "Another Look at Effects of “Adults-Only” Age Restrictions on Housing Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 115-130, January.
    23. Cheng, Ping & Lin, Zhenguo & Liu, Yingchun, 2011. "Property delisting, housing cycle and pricing bias," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 152-157, June.

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