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Marketing Period Risk in a Portfolio Context: Theory and Empirical Estimates from the UK Commercial Real Estate Market

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Listed:
  • Shaun Bond
  • Soosung Hwang
  • Zhenguo Lin
  • Kerry Vandell

Abstract

The role of selling (or marketing) period uncertainty in understanding risk associated with property investment is examined in this paper. Using an approach developed by Lin ( 2004 ), and Lin and Vandell ( 2001 , 2005 ), combined with a statistical model of UK commercial property transactions, we show that the ex ante level of risk exposure for a commercial real estate investor is around one and a half times that obtained from historical statistics. The risk related to marketing time uncertainty can be reduced by constructing a portfolio. We find that at least ten properties are necessary to reduce this risk, assuming independence between marketing period risk and price risk. These findings have important implications for mixed-asset portfolio allocation decisions. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007

Suggested Citation

  • Shaun Bond & Soosung Hwang & Zhenguo Lin & Kerry Vandell, 2007. "Marketing Period Risk in a Portfolio Context: Theory and Empirical Estimates from the UK Commercial Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 447-461, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:34:y:2007:i:4:p:447-461
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-007-9022-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Easley & Soeren Hvidkjaer & Maureen O'Hara, 2002. "Is Information Risk a Determinant of Asset Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2185-2221, October.
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    3. Zhenguo Lin & Kerry D. Vandell, 2007. "Illiquidity and Pricing Biases in the Real Estate Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 35(3), pages 291-330, September.
    4. Jeffrey Fisher & Dean Gatzlaff & David Geltner & Donald Haurin, 2004. "An Analysis of the Determinants of Transaction Frequency of Institutional Commercial Real Estate Investment Property," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 239-264, June.
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    6. Shaun A. Bond & Soosung Hwang, 2007. "Smoothing, Nonsynchronous Appraisal and Cross-Sectional Aggregation in Real Estate Price Indices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 35(3), pages 349-382, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Liquidity risk; Commercial real estate; Time on market; Transaction process; UK; R33; G11; G32;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R33 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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