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Marketing Period Risk in a Portfolio Context: Theory and Empirical Estimates from the UK Commercial Real Estate Market

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  • Shaun Bond
  • Soosung Hwang
  • Zhenguo Lin
  • Kerry Vandell

Abstract

The role of selling (or marketing) period uncertainty in understanding risk associated with property investment is examined in this paper. Using an approach developed by Lin ( 2004 ), and Lin and Vandell ( 2001 , 2005 ), combined with a statistical model of UK commercial property transactions, we show that the ex ante level of risk exposure for a commercial real estate investor is around one and a half times that obtained from historical statistics. The risk related to marketing time uncertainty can be reduced by constructing a portfolio. We find that at least ten properties are necessary to reduce this risk, assuming independence between marketing period risk and price risk. These findings have important implications for mixed-asset portfolio allocation decisions. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007

Suggested Citation

  • Shaun Bond & Soosung Hwang & Zhenguo Lin & Kerry Vandell, 2007. "Marketing Period Risk in a Portfolio Context: Theory and Empirical Estimates from the UK Commercial Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 447-461, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:34:y:2007:i:4:p:447-461
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-007-9022-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Easley & Soeren Hvidkjaer & Maureen O'Hara, 2002. "Is Information Risk a Determinant of Asset Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2185-2221, October.
    2. Jeffrey Fisher & Dean Gatzlaff & David Geltner & Donald Haurin, 2003. "Controlling for the Impact of Variable Liquidity in Commercial Real Estate Price Indices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(2), pages 269-303, June.
    3. Zhenguo Lin & Kerry D. Vandell, 2007. "Illiquidity and Pricing Biases in the Real Estate Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 35(3), pages 291-330, September.
    4. Jeffrey Fisher & Dean Gatzlaff & David Geltner & Donald Haurin, 2004. "An Analysis of the Determinants of Transaction Frequency of Institutional Commercial Real Estate Investment Property," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 239-264, June.
    5. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    6. Shaun A. Bond & Soosung Hwang, 2007. "Smoothing, Nonsynchronous Appraisal and Cross-Sectional Aggregation in Real Estate Price Indices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 35(3), pages 349-382, September.
    7. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December.
    8. Neil Crosby & Patrick McAllister, 2004. "Liquidity In Commercial Property Markets: Deconstructing The Transaction Process," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2004-07, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    9. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    10. Shaun A. Bond & Soosung Hwang, 2003. "A Measure of Fundamental Volatility in the Commercial Property Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(4), pages 577-600, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Colin Lizieri & Stephen Satchell & Qi Zhang, 2007. "The Underlying Return‐Generating Factors for REIT Returns: An Application of Independent Component Analysis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 35(4), pages 569-598, December.
    2. Fabrice Barthélémy & Jean-Luc Prigent, 2009. "Optimal Time to Sell in Real Estate Portfolio Management," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 59-87, January.
    3. Thomas Paul & Thomas Walther & André Küster-Simic, 2022. "Empirical analysis of the illiquidity premia of German real estate securities," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(2), pages 203-260, June.
    4. Christian Rehring, 2012. "Real Estate in a Mixed‐Asset Portfolio: The Role of the Investment Horizon," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 65-95, March.
    5. Ping Cheng & Zhenguo Lin & Yingchun Liu, 2010. "Home Price, Time-on-Market, and Seller Heterogeneity Under Changing Market Conditions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 272-293, October.
    6. Paul M Anglin & Yanmin Gao, 2011. "Integrating Illiquid Assets into the Portfolio Decision Process," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 39(2), pages 277-311, June.
    7. Gianluca Marcato, 2018. "Liquidity Pricing of Illiquid Assets," ERES eres2018_215, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    8. Cheng, Ping & Lin, Zhenguo & Liu, Yingchun, 2010. "Illiquidity, transaction cost, and optimal holding period for real estate: Theory and application," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 109-118, June.
    9. Jim Clayton & Greg MacKinnon & Liang Peng, 2008. "Time Variation of Liquidity in the Private Real Estate Market: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 30(2), pages 125-160.
    10. Ping Cheng & Zhenguo Lin & Yingchun Liu, 2008. "A Model of Time‐on‐Market and Real Estate Price Under Sequential Search with Recall," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 813-843, December.
    11. Youngha Cho & Soosung Hwang & Steve Satchell, 2012. "The Optimal Mortgage Loan Portfolio in UK Regional Residential Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 645-677, October.
    12. Mei, Bin, 2015. "Illiquidity and risk of commercial timberland assets in the United States," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 67-78.
    13. Fabrice Barthelemy & Jean-Luc Prigent, 2011. "Real Estate Portfolio Management : Optimization under Risk Aversion," THEMA Working Papers 2011-12, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    14. Matthew Cypher & S. McKay Price & Spenser Robinson & Michael J. Seiler, 2018. "Price Signals and Uncertainty in Commercial Real Estate Transactions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 246-263, August.
    15. Eli Beracha & Julia Freybote & Zhenguo Lin & Michael J. Seiler, 2024. "Time on Market and the Cash Discount for Condos," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 188-217, February.
    16. Haß, Lars Helge & Johanning, Lutz & Rudolph, Bernd & Schweizer, Denis, 2012. "Open-ended property funds: Risk and return profile — Diversification benefits and liquidity risks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 90-107.
    17. Ping Cheng & Zhenguo Lin & Yingchun Liu, 2021. "Competing Selling Strategies in the Housing Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 394-413, October.
    18. Zhenguo Lin & Yingchun Liu & Kerry Vandell, 2009. "Marketing Period Risk in a Portfolio Context: Comment and Extension," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 183-191, February.
    19. Soosung Hwang & Youngha Cho & Jinho Shin, 2017. "Does illiquidity matter in residential properties?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(1), pages 1-20, January.
    20. Zhenguo Lin & Yingchun Liu, 2008. "Real Estate Returns and Risk with Heterogeneous Investors," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 753-776, December.
    21. İnaltekin, Hazer & Jarrow, Robert A. & Sağlam, Mehmet & Yıldırım, Yıldıray, 2011. "Housing prices and the optimal time-on-the-market decision," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 171-179.
    22. Bond, Shaun A. & Chang, Qingqing, 2012. "Liquidity dynamics across public and private markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1890-1910.
    23. Steven Devaney & David Scofield, 2015. "Liquidity and the drivers of search, due diligence and transaction times for UK commercial real estate investments," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 362-383, December.
    24. Yoshiki Kago & Charles W.R. Ward, 2008. "Hedging Effectiveness Of Total Returns Swaps: Application To The Japanese Market," ERES eres2008_169, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    25. Cheng, Ping & Lin, Zhenguo & Liu, Yingchun, 2011. "Property delisting, housing cycle and pricing bias," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 152-157, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Liquidity risk; Commercial real estate; Time on market; Transaction process; UK; R33; G11; G32;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R33 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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