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Projections in the Industrial Property Market using a Simultaneous Equation System

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Abstract

A three-equation simultaneous system is used to model the industrial property market in Great Britain. Strong relationships are found between new industrial building supply and both real rents and construction costs, and between rents, industrial floorspace availability and the gross domestic product. The performance of ex post simulations of new building supply, rents and floorspace availability are satisfactory with the exception of rent simulations post 1993. The central forecast of the model indicates a quiet market until 2001 (lower level of new supply, constant levels of real rents and increasing availability of industrial space) but a more active market in 2002 and 2003. This study suggests that simultaneous equation models can prove useful alternative tools in analysing the industrial property market and generating forecasts both at the aggregate and more localised level of analysis.

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  • Robert Thompson & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2000. "Projections in the Industrial Property Market using a Simultaneous Equation System," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 19(2), pages 165-188.
    • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:18:n:3:1999:p:165-188
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    1. William C. Wheaton & Raymond G. Torto, 1990. "An Investment Model of the Demand and Supply For Industrial Real Estate," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(4), pages 530-547, December.
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    8. Bob Thompson & Sotiris Tsolacos, 1999. "Rent Adjustments and Forecasts in the Industrial Market," Journal of Real Estate Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 151-167, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bob Thompson & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2001. "Industrial Land Values — A Guide to Future Markets?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 21(1/2), pages 55-76.
    2. Geoffrey Meen & Kenneth Gibb & Daniel Mackay & Michael White, 2001. "On The Interrelationship Between Housing and Industrial Construction," ERES eres2001_232, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    3. Kim Hin David Ho & Satyanarain Rengarajan, 2017. "Industrial Real Estate Market Dynamics in Singapore: A VAR Approach," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 20(4), pages 417-450.

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    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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