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Natural Increase: A New Source of Population Growth in Emerging Hispanic Destinations in the United States

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  • Kenneth M. Johnson
  • Daniel T. Lichter

Abstract

Updated US Census Bureau estimates and race/ethnic‐specific birth and death data for the post‐2000 period are used to highlight the increasing role of natural increase as an engine of population growth in emerging Hispanic destinations. Newly emerging Hispanic growth areas are distinguished from established and high‐growth areas from the 1990s. The findings document that recent Hispanic population gains have been generated increasingly by natural increase—the excess of Hispanic births over deaths. Hispanics accounted for 46 percent of the population gain and 53 percent of the natural increase in nonmetro America in 2000–2005. Yet, Hispanics represented only 5.4 percent of the nonmetro population in 2000. In metro areas, they accounted for 50 percent of the population gain and 47 percent of the natural increase, although they comprised only 14 percent of the metro population. Current trends suggest that the ascendancy of the US Hispanic population is likely to continue unabated, whether restrictive immigration legislation is enacted or not. The growth of the Hispanic population, caused increasingly by natural increase, has taken on a demographic momentum of its own.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth M. Johnson & Daniel T. Lichter, 2008. "Natural Increase: A New Source of Population Growth in Emerging Hispanic Destinations in the United States," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 34(2), pages 327-346, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:34:y:2008:i:2:p:327-346
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2008.00222.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Parker, Emily, 2021. "Spatial variation in access to the health care safety net for Hispanic immigrants, 1970–2017," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    2. Neal Marquez & Xiaoqi Bao & Eileen Kazura & Jessica Lapham & Priya Sarma & Crystal Yu & Christine Leibbrand & Sara Curran, 2024. "An Evaluation of Projection Methods for Detailed Small Area Projections: An Application and Validation to King County, Washington," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(2), pages 1-29, April.
    3. Barrett Lee & Michael Martin & Stephen Matthews & Chad Farrell, 2017. "State-level changes in US racial and ethnic diversity, 1980 to 2015: A universal trend?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 37(33), pages 1031-1048.
    4. Daniel T. Lichter & Domenico Parisi & Michael C. Taquino, 2015. "Spatial Assimilation in U.S. Cities and Communities? Emerging Patterns of Hispanic Segregation from Blacks and Whites," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 660(1), pages 36-56, July.
    5. Elizabeth Ackert & Stephanie Potochnick, 2024. "Health Care Access Among Children in Latinx Families Across U.S. Destinations," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(5), pages 1-44, October.
    6. Baig, Sabeeh A. & Pepper, Jessica K. & Morgan, Jennifer C. & Brewer, Noel T., 2017. "Social identity and support for counteracting tobacco company marketing that targets vulnerable populations," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 136-141.
    7. Belle Selene XIA, 2016. "The Challenges of Aging Population: Demographic Development of Labor Force and Immigration Policy," Chinese Journal of Urban and Environmental Studies (CJUES), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(02), pages 1-13, June.
    8. Daniel T. Lichter & Kenneth M. Johnson & Richard N. Turner & Allison Churilla, 2012. "H ispanic Assimilation and Fertility in New U . S . Destinations," International Migration Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 767-791, December.
    9. Barrett Lee & Lauren Hughes, 2015. "Bucking the Trend: Is Ethnoracial Diversity Declining in American Communities?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 34(1), pages 113-139, February.
    10. Carmel Price & Ben Feldmeyer, 2012. "The Environmental Impact of Immigration: An Analysis of the Effects of Immigrant Concentration on Air Pollution Levels," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 31(1), pages 119-140, February.
    11. Noli Brazil, 2019. "Hispanic neighbourhood satisfaction in new and established metropolitan destinations," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 56(14), pages 2953-2976, November.
    12. Carroll Chapman, Shawna L. & Wu, Li-Tzy, 2013. "Substance use among adolescent mothers: A review," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 806-815.
    13. Daniel T. Lichter & Kenneth M. Johnson, 2020. "A Demographic Lifeline? Immigration and Hispanic Population Growth in Rural America," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(5), pages 785-803, October.
    14. Daniel Lichter, 2013. "Integration or Fragmentation? Racial Diversity and the American Future," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(2), pages 359-391, April.
    15. Sarah M. Ludwig-Dehm & John Iceland, 2017. "Hispanic Concentrated Poverty in Traditional and New Destinations, 2010–2014," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 36(6), pages 833-850, December.
    16. Yanxi Wang & Yunxia Zhuo & Tao Liu, 2022. "Population Dynamics in China’s Urbanizing Megaregion: A Township-Level Analysis of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-21, August.
    17. Rachel S. Franklin, 2021. "The demographic burden of population loss in US cities, 2000–2010," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 209-230, April.
    18. Kamar Ali & Mark Partridge & Dan Rickman, 2012. "International immigration and domestic out-migrants: are domestic migrants moving to new jobs or away from immigrants?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 49(2), pages 397-415, October.
    19. Kenneth M. Johnson & Daniel T. Lichter, 2020. "Metropolitan Reclassification and the Urbanization of Rural America," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(5), pages 1929-1950, October.
    20. Kenneth M. Johnson & Daniel T. Lichter, 2010. "Growing Diversity among America's Children and Youth: Spatial and Temporal Dimensions," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(1), pages 151-176, March.
    21. Mark Partridge & Dan Rickman & Kamar Ali, 2011. "International Immigration and Domestic Out-Migrants: Do Natives move to New Jobs or Away from Immigrants," ERSA conference papers ersa10p346, European Regional Science Association.
    22. Kenneth M. Johnson & Daniel T. Lichter, 2016. "Diverging Demography: Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Contributions to U.S. Population Redistribution and Diversity," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 35(5), pages 705-725, October.
    23. J. Tom Mueller & Alexis R. Santos-Lozada, 2022. "The 2020 US Census Differential Privacy Method Introduces Disproportionate Discrepancies for Rural and Non-White Populations," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(4), pages 1417-1430, August.

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