IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hkm/wpaper/202007.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Managing the Monetary Consequences of Reserve Accumulation in Emerging Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Alice Y. Ouyang

    (Chinese Academy of Public Finance and Public Policy, The Central University of Finance and Economics)

  • Ramkishen S. Rajan

    (George Mason University, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

  • Tom Willett

    (Claremont Graduate University and Claremont McKenna College)

Abstract

The huge increase in international reserve holdings by Asian countries since the 1997 crisis has been one of the most important recent developments on the international financial scene. These buildups have contributed substantially to concerns about the creation of excessive global liquidity. How justified these concerns are depends heavily on the extent to which the reserve accumulating countries have been able to sterilize the effects on their domestic monetary aggregates. We use a unified theoretical framework to undertake dynamic estimations of the magnitude of sterilization and offset coefficients (which measure the degree of capital mobility) for a large set of Asian economies. We find that despite substantial capital mobility there has been a high degree of effective sterilization to date.

Suggested Citation

  • Alice Y. Ouyang & Ramkishen S. Rajan & Tom Willett, 2007. "Managing the Monetary Consequences of Reserve Accumulation in Emerging Asia," Working Papers 202007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:202007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hkimr.org/uploads/publication/177/ub_full_0_2_162_hkimr-no20_bw.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N/A, 2005. "The World Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 191(1), pages 8-30, January.
    2. Reinhart, Carmen & Montiel, Peter, 2001. "The Dynamics of Capital Movements to Emerging Economies During the 1990s," MPRA Paper 7577, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Gerlach, Stefan & Yiu, Matthew S., 2004. "Estimating output gaps in Asia: A cross-country study," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 115-136, March.
    4. Sebastian Edwards, 2002. "Does the Current Account Matter?," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 21-76, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Brissimis, Sophocles N & Gibson, Heather D & Tsakalotos, Euclid, 2002. "A Unifying Framework for Analysing Offsetting Capital Flows and Sterilization: Germany and the ERM," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(1), pages 63-78, January.
    6. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "The social cost of foreign exchange reserves," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 253-266.
    7. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S. & Willett, Thomas D., 2010. "China as a reserve sink: The evidence from offset and sterilization coefficients," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 951-972, September.
    8. Sebastian Edwards & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2002. "Introduction to "Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets"," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 1-20, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Aizenman, Joshua & Lee, Yeonho & Rhee, Yeongseop, 2004. "International reserves management and capital mobility in a volatile world: Policy considerations and a case study of Korea," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1867f7ng, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    10. Tony Cavoli & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2007. "Managing in the Middle: Characterizing Singapore's Exchange Rate Policy," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 321-342, September.
    11. Celasun, Oya & Denizer, Cevdet & Dong He, 1999. "Capital flows, macroeconomic management, and the financial system - Turkey, 1989-97," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2141, The World Bank.
    12. Gwang-Ju Rhee & Eun Mo Lee, 2005. "Foreign exchange intervention and foreign exchange market development in Korea," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Foreign exchange market intervention in emerging markets: motives, techniques and implications, volume 24, pages 196-208, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Fry, Maxwell J., 1993. "Foreign debt accumulation: financial and fiscal effects and monetary policy reactions in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 347-367, August.
    14. Tony Cavoli & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2006. "Capital Inflows Problem in Selected Asian Economies in the 1990s Revisited: The Role of Monetary Sterilization," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 409-423, December.
    15. Jung Sik Kim & Jie Li & Ramkishen S. Rajan & Ozan Sula & Thomas D. Willett, 2007. "Reserve Adequacy In Asia Revisited: New Benchmarks Based On The Size And Composition Of Capital Flow," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 23, pages 131-158.
    16. Tony Cavoli & Ramkishen Rajan, 2005. "Have Exchange Rate Regimes in Asia Become More Flexible Post Crisis? Re-visiting the Evidence," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2005-03, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    17. Fry, Maxwell J, 1993. "Monetary Policy Reaction to Foreign Debt Accumulation in Developing Countries," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 61(0), pages 60-75, Suppl..
    18. Dasgupta, Dipak & Ratha, Dilip, 2000. "What factors appear to drive private capital flows to developing countries? and how does official lending respond?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2392, The World Bank.
    19. Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2011. "Exchange Rate Regimes in Asia," Palgrave Macmillan Studies in Banking and Financial Institutions, in: Emerging Asia, chapter 4, pages 22-25, Palgrave Macmillan.
    20. Raghbendra Jha & Deba Prasad Rath, 2001. "On the Endogeneity of the Money Multiplier in India," ASARC Working Papers 2001-12, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
    21. Ramkishen Rajan, 2003. "Financial Crisis, Capital Outflows and Policy Responses: Simple Analytics and Examples from East Asia," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2003-11, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    22. Gyuhan Kim, 1995. "Exchange rate constraints and money control in Korea," Working Papers 1995-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    23. Aizenman, Joshua & Lee, Yeonho & Rhee, Youngseop, 2007. "International reserves management and capital mobility in a volatile world: Policy considerations and a case study of Korea," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-15, March.
    24. Prema‐Chandra Athukorala & Sarath Rajapatirana, 2003. "Capital Inflows and the Real Exchange Rate: A Comparative Study of Asia and Latin America," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 613-637, April.
    25. Pablo García & Claudio Soto, 2006. "Large Hoardings of International Reserves: Are They Worth It?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Ricardo Caballero & César Calderón & Luis Felipe Céspedes & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Sc (ed.),External Vulnerability and Preventive Policies, edition 1, volume 10, chapter 6, pages 171-206, Central Bank of Chile.
    26. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1991. "The Perils of Sterilization," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(4), pages 921-926, December.
    27. Bank for International Settlements, 2005. "Foreign exchange market intervention in emerging markets: motives, techniques and implications," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 24.
    28. Mr. Romain Ranciere & Mr. Olivier D Jeanne, 2006. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves for Emerging Market Countries: Formulas and Applications," IMF Working Papers 2006/229, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Khalid, Ahmed M. & Kawai, Masahiro, 2003. "Was financial market contagion the source of economic crisis in Asia?: Evidence using a multivariate VAR model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 131-156, February.
    30. Sebastian Edwards & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2002. "Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number edwa02-2.
    31. Pierre L. Siklos, 2000. "Capital flows in a transitional economy and the sterilization dilemma: The hungarian experience, 1992–97," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 373-392.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Levan Efremidze & John Rutledge & Thomas D. Willett, 2016. "Capital Flow Surges As Bubbles: Behavioral Finance And Mckinnon’S Over-Borrowing Syndrome Extended," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(02), pages 1-27, June.
    2. Samih Antoine Azar, 2014. "Foreign Reserve Accretion and Money Supply Creation: Lebanon¡¯s Experience under an Adjustable Peg," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(3), pages 86-95, July.
    3. Pierre L. Siklos & Yang Zhang, 2010. "Identifying The Shocks Driving Inflation In China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 204-223, May.
    4. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S. & Willett, Thomas D., 2010. "China as a reserve sink: The evidence from offset and sterilization coefficients," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 951-972, September.
    5. Puspa D. Amri & Thomas D. Willett, 2017. "Policy Inconsistencies and the Political Economy of Currency Crises," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 1-24, February.
    6. Tony Cavoli, 2017. "Managing Capital Inflows Indirectly? On the Determinants of Monetary Sterilization with Reference to East Asia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 262-278, May.
    7. Levan Efremidze & Sungsoo Kim & Ozan Sula & Thomas D. Willett, 2017. "The relationships among capital flow surges, reversals and sudden stops," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(4), pages 393-413, November.
    8. Andreas Steiner, 2010. "Central Banks’ Dilemma: Reserve Accumulation, Inflation and Financial Instability," IEER Working Papers 84, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University.
    9. Gan, Pei-Tha, 2014. "The precise form of financial integration: Empirical evidence for selected Asian countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 208-219.
    10. Andrew Filardo & Stephen Grenville, 2012. "Central bank balance sheets and foreign exchange rate regimes: understanding the nexus in Asia," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are central bank balance sheets in Asia too large?, volume 66, pages 76-110, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Alice Ouyang & Ramkishen Rajan, 2011. "Reserve accumulation and monetary sterilization in Singapore and Taiwan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(16), pages 2015-2031.
    12. Cavoli, Tony & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2009. "Managing Risks in a Volatile Environment: The Capital Inflows Problem in Asia," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 62(3), pages 325-340.
    13. Apanard P. Angkinand & Thomas D. Willett, 2011. "Exchange rate regimes and banking crises: the channels of influence investigated," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 256-274, July.
    14. Thomas Willett & Eric M.P. Chiu & Sirathorn (B.J.) Dechsakulthorn & Ramya Ghosh & Bernard Kibesse & Kenneth Kim & Jeff (Yongbok) Kim & Alice Ouyang, 2011. "Classifying international aspects of currency regimes," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 3(4), pages 288-303, November.
    15. Abdul Rishad & Sanjeev Gupta & Akhil Sharma, 2022. "An Assessment of The Effectiveness of Sterilization of Central Bank Interventions: Empirical Evidence from India," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2022(5), pages 417-440.
    16. Victor Pontines & Ramkishen Rajan, 2008. "The Asian Currency Unit (ACU): exploring alternative currency weights," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 269-278.
    17. Lim, Ewe Ghee & Goh, SooKhoon, 2011. "Is Malaysia exempted from impossible trinity: empirical evidence from 1991-2009," MPRA Paper 30804, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Puspa D. Amri & Greg M. Richey & Thomas D. Willett, 2016. "Capital Surges and Credit Booms: How Tight is the Relationship?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 637-670, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S. & Willett, Thomas D., 2010. "China as a reserve sink: The evidence from offset and sterilization coefficients," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 951-972, September.
    2. Cavoli, Tony & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2009. "Managing Risks in a Volatile Environment: The Capital Inflows Problem in Asia," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 62(3), pages 325-340.
    3. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2015. "Economic Management in a Volatile Environment: Monetary and Financial Issues by Ramkishen S. Rajan and Sasidaran Gopalan Palgrave Macmillan , London , 2015 Pp. xx+283. ISBN 9 78 137 37151-5," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 29(2), pages 103-106, November.
    4. Alice Ouyang & Ramkishen Rajan, 2011. "Reserve accumulation and monetary sterilization in Singapore and Taiwan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(16), pages 2015-2031.
    5. Joshua Aizenman & Brian Pinto, 2013. "Managing Financial Integration and Capital Mobility—Policy Lessons from the Past Two Decades," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 636-653, September.
    6. Mendoza, Ronald U., 2010. "Was the Asian crisis a wake-up call?: Foreign reserves as self-protection," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-19, February.
    7. Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2011. "Management of Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Asia," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23214, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    8. Igor Ljubaj & Ana Martinis & Marko Mrkalj, 2010. "Capital Inflows and Efficiency of Sterilisation – Estimation of Sterilisation and Offset Coefficients," Working Papers 24, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    9. Aizenman, Joshua & LEE, JAEWOO, 2005. "International Reserves: Precautionary versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2tn4w8x6, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    10. Yin‐Wong Cheung & Xingwang Qian, 2009. "Hoarding of International Reserves: Mrs Machlup's Wardrobe and the Joneses," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 824-843, September.
    11. Enrique Alberola & José María Serena, 2007. "Global financial integration, monetary policy and reserve accumulation. Assessing the limits in emerging economies," Working Papers 0706, Banco de España.
    12. Olivier Jeanne, 2007. "International Reserves in Emerging Market Countries: Too Much of a Good Thing?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 1-80.
    13. Joshua Aizenman, 2010. "Hoarding international reserves versus a Pigovian tax-cum-subsidy scheme: Reflections on the deleveraging crisis of 2008-9, and a cost benefit analysis," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Oct.
    14. Joshua Aizenman, 2010. "Macro Prudential Supervision in the Open Economy, and the Role of Central Banks in Emerging Markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 465-482, July.
    15. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2007. "International Reserves: Precautionary Versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 191-214, April.
    16. Joshua Aizenman, 2010. "International Reserves and Swap Lines in Times of Financial Distress: Overview and Interpretations," Working Papers id:3022, eSocialSciences.
    17. Alexander Mihailov & Harun Nasir, 2022. "Sudden Stops, Productivity and the Optimal Level of International Reserves for Small Open Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(5), pages 825-851, November.
    18. Yin-wong Cheung & Hiro Ito, 2008. "Hoarding of International Reserves: A Comparison of the Asian and Latin American Experiences," Working Papers 072008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    19. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Foreign Reserve Adequacy in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 2008/150, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asia; Balance of Payments Function; Capital Mobility; Monetary Reaction Function; Reserves; Sterilization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:202007. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: HKIMR (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hkimrhk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.