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A Model Of Overconfidence

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  • Bruce A. Weinberg

Abstract

People use information about their ability to choose tasks. If more challenging tasks provide more accurate information about ability, people who care about and who are risk averse over their perception of their ability will choose tasks that are not sufficiently challenging. Moderate overestimation of ability and overestimation of the precision of initial information leads people to choose tasks that raise expected output (and utility); however, extreme overconfidence leads people to undertake tasks that are excessively challenging. Consistent with our results, psychologists find that moderate overconfidence is both pervasive and advantageous.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce A. Weinberg, 2009. "A Model Of Overconfidence," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(4), pages 502-515, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:14:y:2009:i:4:p:502-515
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0106.2009.00466.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Johannes Maier & Clemens König, 2016. "A Model of Reference-Dependent Belief Updating," CESifo Working Paper Series 6156, CESifo.
    2. Filippin, Antonio & Paccagnella, Marco, 2012. "Family background, self-confidence and economic outcomes," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 824-834.
    3. Cacault, Maria Paula & Grieder, Manuel, 2019. "How group identification distorts beliefs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 63-76.
    4. Barreda-Tarrazona, Iván & García-Gallego, Aurora & García-Segarra, Jaume & Ritschel, Alexander, 2022. "A gender bias in reporting expected ranks when performance feedback is at stake," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    5. Heller, Yuval, 2010. "Overconfidence and risk dispersion," MPRA Paper 25893, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Sällström, Susanna & Sjogren, Anna, 2002. "Trapped, Delayed and Handicapped," CEPR Discussion Papers 3335, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Marc Oliver Rieger & Mei Wang & Daniel Hausmann, 2020. "Pre-Decisional Information Acquisition: Do We Pay TooMuch for Information?," Working Paper Series 2020-02, University of Trier, Research Group Quantitative Finance and Risk Analysis.
    8. Kuhnen, Camelia M. & Tymula, Agnieszka, 2008. "Rank expectations, feedback and social hierarchies," MPRA Paper 13428, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2009.
    9. Yao Wang & Yinyin Han & Qiuxuan Du & Deshuai Hou, 2023. "Executive Overconfidence and Corporate Environmental, Social, and Governance Performance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-22, November.
    10. Danková, Katarína & Servátka, Maroš, 2019. "Gender robustness of overconfidence and excess entry," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 179-199.
    11. Jouini, Elyès & Karehnke, Paul & Napp, Clotilde, 2018. "Stereotypes, underconfidence and decision-making with an application to gender and math," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 34-45.
    12. Naomi Moy & Ho Fai Chan & Frank Mathmann & Markus Schaffner & Benno Torgler, 2021. "Confidence is good; too much, not so much: Exploring the effects on reward-based crowdfunding success," CREMA Working Paper Series 2021-18, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).

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    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles

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