Testing Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and Term Structure Using a Three‐regime Threshold Unit Root VECM: An Application to the Swiss ‘Isle’ of Interest Rates
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: j.1468-0084.2011.00644.x
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997.
"Threshold Cointegration,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-645, August.
- Nathan S. Balke & Thomas B. Fomby, 1992. "Threshold cointegration," Working Papers 9209, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002.
"Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Hansen/Seo paper on threshold cointegration," Statistical Software Components RTZ00092, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Sokbae Lee & Myung Hwan Seo & Youngki Shin, 2017.
"Correction,"
Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(518), pages 883-883, April.
- Hwan Seo, Myung, 2011. "Estimation Of Nonlinear Error Correction Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 201-234, April.
- Youngki Shin, 2009. "Length-bias Correction in Transformation Models with Supplementary Data," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 658-681.
- Seo, Myunghwan, 2006. "Bootstrap testing for the null of no cointegration in a threshold vector error correction model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 129-150, September.
- Myung Hwan Seo, 2007. "Estimation of Nonlinear Error CorrectionModels," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 517, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Seo, Myung Hwan, 2007. "Estimation of nonlinear error correction models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6802, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- P. C. B. Phillips & S. N. Durlauf, 1986.
"Multiple Time Series Regression with Integrated Processes,"
The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 473-495.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Steven N. Durlauf, 1985. "Multiple Time Series Regression with Integrated Processes," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 768, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Saikkonen, Pentti & Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2000.
"Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with Structural Shifts,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 451-464, October.
- Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2001. "Testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with structural shifts," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,82, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Gonzalo, Jesus & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 1998. "Specification via model selection in vector error correction models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 321-328, September.
- Engel, Charles, 1996.
"The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
- Charles Engel, 1995. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brüggemann, Ralf & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2005.
"Uncovered interest rate parity and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure: Empirical results for the US and Europe,"
SFB 649 Discussion Papers
2005-035, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
- Ralf Brueggemann & Helmut Luetkepohl, 2005. "Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure: Empirical Results for the U.S. and Europe," Economics Working Papers ECO2005/08, European University Institute.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1996.
"Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
- Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-276, March.
- Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2000.
"Testing For The Cointegrating Rank Of A Var Process With An Intercept,"
Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 373-406, June.
- Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1998. "Testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with an intercept," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,51, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994.
"Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014.
"A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix,"
Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-708, May.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- George Kapetanios & Yongcheol Shin, 2006.
"Unit root tests in three-regime SETAR models,"
Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 9(2), pages 252-278, July.
- George Kapetanios & Yongcheol Shin, 2002. "Unit Root Tests in Three-Regime SETAR Models," Working Papers 465, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- George Kapetanios & Yongcheol Shin, 2003. "Unit Root Tests in Three-Regime SETAR Models," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 104, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987.
"Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," NBER Working Papers 1885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 785, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Scholarly Articles 3122490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001.
"Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November.
- Bruce E. Hansen & Mehmet Caner, 1997. "Threshold Autoregressions with a Unit Root," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 381, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Lutkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2000.
"Testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with a time trend,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 177-198, March.
- Lütkepohl, H. & Saikkonen, P., 1997. "Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with a Time Trend," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1997,79, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Wolff, Christian & van Tol, Michel R, 2005. "Forecasting the Spot Exchange Rate with the Term Structure of Forward Premia: Multivariate Threshold Cointegration," CEPR Discussion Papers 4958, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001.
"Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-176, April.
- Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L., 1998. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," ISU General Staff Papers 199810010700001306, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Taylor, Alan M, 2001.
"Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 473-498, March.
- Alan M. Taylor, 2000. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," NBER Working Papers 7577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Saikkonen, Pentti, 1992. "Estimation and Testing of Cointegrated Systems by an Autoregressive Approximation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 1-27, March.
- Gonzalo, Jesus & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2002. "Estimation and model selection based inference in single and multiple threshold models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 319-352, October.
- Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min & Xing, Yuhang, 2007.
"Uncovered interest rate parity and the term structure,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1038-1069, October.
- Geert Bekaert & Min Wei & Yuhang Xing, 2002. "Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 8795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-126, February.
- Phillips, P C B, 1991.
"Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 283-306, March.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 866R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 1989.
- Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
- Baillie, Richard T. & Kilic, Rehim, 2006. "Do asymmetric and nonlinear adjustments explain the forward premium anomaly?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 22-47, February.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Costantini, Mauro & Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo & Hlouskova, Jaroslava, 2014.
"Can Macroeconomists Get Rich Forecasting Exchange Rates?,"
Economics Series
305, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- Costantini, Mauro & Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Hlouskova, Jaroslava, 2014. "Can Macroeconomists Get Rich Forecasting Exchange Rates?," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 176, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
- Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Mauro Costantini & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2014. "Can Macroeconomists Get Rich Forecasting Exchange Rates?," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp176, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
- Peter Sephton & Janelle Mann, 2013. "Threshold Cointegration: Model Selection with an Application," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 56(2), pages 54-77.
- Lars P. Feld & Ekkehard A. Köhler, 2015.
"Is Switzerland an Interest Rate Island after all? Time Series and Non-Linear Switching Regime Evidence,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
5628, CESifo.
- Feld, Lars P. & Köhler, Ekkehard A., 2015. "Is Switzerland an interest rate island after all? Time series and non-linear switching regime evidence," Freiburg Discussion Papers on Constitutional Economics 15/08, Walter Eucken Institut e.V..
- Kirstin Hubrich & Timo Teräsvirta, 2013. "Thresholds and Smooth Transitions in Vector Autoregressive Models," CREATES Research Papers 2013-18, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Neto, David, 2021. "Adaptive LASSO for selecting Fourier coefficients in a functional smooth time-varying cointegrating regression: An application to the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 253-264.
- Georgoutsos, Dimitris A. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2016. "Interest parity, cointegration, and the term structure: Testing in an integrated framework," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 281-294.
- David Neto, 2015. "Testing for and dating structural break in smooth time-varying cointegration parameters, with an application to retail gasoline price and crude oil price long-run relationship," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 909-928, November.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Gonzalo, Jesùs & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2005. "Threshold effects In multivariate error correction models," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0501, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
- Daiki Maki & Shin-ichi Kitasaka, 2015. "Residual-based tests for cointegration with three-regime TAR adjustment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1013-1054, May.
- Pelin ÖGE GÜNEY, 2013. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Cointegration Analysis in the Non-Linear STAR Framework," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(12), pages 851-860.
- Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013.
"Gold as an inflation hedge in a time-varying coefficient framework,"
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 208-222.
- Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2012. "Gold as an Infl ation Hedge in a Time-Varying Coefficient Framework," Ruhr Economic Papers 362, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
- Jing Li & Junsoo Lee, 2010. "ADL tests for threshold cointegration," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 241-254, July.
- Sokbae Lee & Myung Hwan Seo & Youngki Shin, 2017.
"Correction,"
Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(518), pages 883-883, April.
- Hwan Seo, Myung, 2011. "Estimation Of Nonlinear Error Correction Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 201-234, April.
- Youngki Shin, 2009. "Length-bias Correction in Transformation Models with Supplementary Data," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 658-681.
- Seo, Myunghwan, 2006. "Bootstrap testing for the null of no cointegration in a threshold vector error correction model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 129-150, September.
- Myung Hwan Seo, 2007. "Estimation of Nonlinear Error CorrectionModels," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 517, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Seo, Myung Hwan, 2007. "Estimation of nonlinear error correction models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6802, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871, January.
- Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
- Jesús Gonzalo & Jean‐Yves Pitarakis, 2006.
"Threshold Effects in Cointegrating Relationships,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 813-833, December.
- Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2006. "Threshold effects in cointegrating relationships," UC3M Working papers. Economics we20060621, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de EconomÃa.
- Jing Li, 2017. "System-Equation ADL Test for Threshold Cointegration with an Application to the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(1), pages 1-24, February.
- Bothwell Nyoni & Andrew Phiri, 2018.
"The Electricity-growth Nexus in South Africa: Evidence from Asymmetric Cointegration and Co-feature Analysis,"
International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(6), pages 80-88.
- Phiri, Andrew & Nyoni, Botha, 2014. "The electricity-growth nexus in South Africa: Evidence from asymmetric co-integration and co-feature analysis," MPRA Paper 56145, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Clements, Michael P. & Galvao, Ana Beatriz, 2004. "A comparison of tests of nonlinear cointegration with application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 219-236.
- Byeongseon Seo, 2004. "Testing for Nonlinear Adjustment in Smooth Transition Vector Error Correction Models," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 749, Econometric Society.
- Yang, Zheng & Tian, Zheng & Yuan, Zixia, 2008. "Small sample improvements in the threshold cointegration test using residual-based moving block bootstrap," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 78(4), pages 507-513.
- Tillmann, Peter, 2003.
"Cointegration and Regime-Switching Risk Premia in the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
Bonn Econ Discussion Papers
27/2003, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
- Peter Tillmann, 2004. "Cointegration and Regime-Switching Risk Premia in the US Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 26, Econometric Society.
- Jing Li & Junsoo Lee, 2010.
"ADL tests for threshold cointegration,"
Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 241-254, July.
- Jing Li & Junsoo Lee, 2009. "ADL tests for threshold cointegration," SDSU Working Papers in Progress 22009, South Dakota State University, Department of Economics.
- Bosupeng, Mpho, 2016. "The Effects of Chinese Interest Rates and Inflation: A Decomposition of The Fisher Effect," MPRA Paper 78160, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
- Seo, Byeongseon, 2003. "Nonlinear mean reversion in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2243-2265.
- Kunst, Robert M., 2002. "Decision Maps for Bivariate Time Series with Potential Thrshold Cointegration," Economics Series 121, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- Daiki Maki, 2013. "Detecting cointegration relationships under nonlinear models: Monte Carlo analysis and some applications," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 605-625, August.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:74:y:2012:i:2:p:180-202. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfeixuk.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.