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Uncovered interest rate parity and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure: Empirical results for the US and Europe

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  • Brüggemann, Ralf
  • Lütkepohl, Helmut

Abstract

A system of U.S. and euro area short- and long-term interest rates is analyzed. According to the expectations hypothesis of the term structure the interest rate spreads should be stationary and according to the uncovered interest rate parity the difference between the U.S. and euro area longterm interest rates should also be stationary. If all four interest rates are integrated of order one, one would expect to find three linearly independent cointegration relations in the system of four interest rate series. Combining German and European Monetary Union data to obtain the euro area interest rate series we find indeed the theoretically expected three cointegration relations, in contrast to previous studies based on different data sets.

Suggested Citation

  • Brüggemann, Ralf & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2005. "Uncovered interest rate parity and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure: Empirical results for the US and Europe," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2005-035, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2005-035
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expectations hypothesis of the term structure; uncovered interest rate parity; unit roots; cointegration analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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