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Funding a PAYG pension system: the case of Italy

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  • Lorenzo Forni
  • Raffaela Giordano

Abstract

Italy is characterised by a mature pay-as-you-go social security system and by particularly adverse population projections. Given these trends, the social security contribution rate is expected to increase above its current high level. This hinders the development of employer-provided pension funds and introduces a significant wedge between labour cost and earnings that discourages both labour demand and labour supply. Any proposal to reduce payroll taxes and to reform the system in the direction of partial funding has to cope with the state of Italian public finances. Italy has to comply with the Stability and Growth Pact that imposes constraints on budget deficit and debt trends. Using micro data from the Bank of Italy"s Survey of Household Income and Wealth and official population projections, we estimate future employment trends under different demographic and macroeconomic scenarios and compute the cost of the transition. We show that it would be substantially reduced if positive effects on employment were induced by the payroll tax reduction.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenzo Forni & Raffaela Giordano, 2001. "Funding a PAYG pension system: the case of Italy," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 22(4), pages 487-526., December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ifs:fistud:v:22:y:2001:i:4:p:487-526.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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