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Test of change point versus long‐range dependence in functional time series

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  • Changryong Baek
  • Piotr Kokoszka
  • Xiangdong Meng

Abstract

In the context of functional time series, we propose a significance test to distinguish between short memory with a change point and long range dependence. The test is based on coefficients of projections onto an optimal direction that captures the dependence structure of the latent stationary functions that are not observable due to a potential change point. The optimal direction must be estimated as well. The test statistic is constructed using the local Whittle estimator applied to these coefficients. It has standard normal distribution under the null hypothesis (change point) and diverges to infinity under the alternative (long range dependence). The article includes asymptotic theory, a simulation study and an application to curve‐valued time series derived from intraday asset prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Changryong Baek & Piotr Kokoszka & Xiangdong Meng, 2024. "Test of change point versus long‐range dependence in functional time series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 497-512, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:45:y:2024:i:4:p:497-512
    DOI: 10.1111/jtsa.12723
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Horváth, Lajos & Kokoszka, Piotr & Rice, Gregory, 2014. "Testing stationarity of functional time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 179(1), pages 66-82.
    2. Aue, Alexander & Gabrys, Robertas & Horváth, Lajos & Kokoszka, Piotr, 2009. "Estimation of a change-point in the mean function of functional data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(10), pages 2254-2269, November.
    3. Lajos Horváth & Gregory Rice, 2014. "Extensions of some classical methods in change point analysis," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 23(2), pages 219-255, June.
    4. István Berkes & Robertas Gabrys & Lajos Horváth & Piotr Kokoszka, 2009. "Detecting changes in the mean of functional observations," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(5), pages 927-946, November.
    5. Piotr Kokoszka & Hong Miao & Xi Zhang, 2015. "Functional Dynamic Factor Model for Intraday Price Curves," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 456-477.
    6. Lajos Horváth & Gregory Rice, 2014. "Rejoinder on: Extensions of some classical methods in change point analysis," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 23(2), pages 287-290, June.
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