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Modelling Count Data Time Series with Markov Processes Based on Binomial Thinning

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  • Rong Zhu
  • Harry Joe

Abstract

. We obtain new models and results for count data time series based on binomial thinning. Count data time series may have non‐stationarity from trends or covariates, so we propose an extension of stationary time series based on binomial thinning such that the univariate marginal distributions are always in the same parametric family, such as negative binomial. We propose a recursive algorithm to calculate the probability mass functions for the innovation random variable associated with binomial thinning. This simplifies numerical calculations and estimation for the classes of time series models that we consider. An application with real data is used to illustrate the models.

Suggested Citation

  • Rong Zhu & Harry Joe, 2006. "Modelling Count Data Time Series with Markov Processes Based on Binomial Thinning," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 725-738, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:27:y:2006:i:5:p:725-738
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9892.2006.00485.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohamed Sadoun & Mohamed Bentarzi, 2021. "Locally asymptotically efficient estimation for parametric PINAR(p) models," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 75(3), pages 257-289, August.
    2. Daniel L. R. Orozco & Lucas O. F. Sales & Luz M. Z. Fernández & André L. S. Pinho, 2021. "A new mixed first-order integer-valued autoregressive process with Poisson innovations," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 105(4), pages 559-580, December.
    3. Yao Rao & David Harris & Brendan McCabe, 2022. "A semi‐parametric integer‐valued autoregressive model with covariates," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(3), pages 495-516, June.
    4. Šárka Hudecová & Marie Hušková & Simos G. Meintanis, 2021. "Goodness–of–Fit Tests for Bivariate Time Series of Counts," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20, March.
    5. Alzahrani, Naif & Neal, Peter & Spencer, Simon E.F. & McKinley, Trevelyan J. & Touloupou, Panayiota, 2018. "Model selection for time series of count data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 33-44.
    6. Kirchner, Matthias & Torrisi, Giovanni Luca, 2023. "Fluctuations and precise deviations of cumulative INAR time series," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-32.
    7. Christian Weiß, 2008. "Thinning operations for modeling time series of counts—a survey," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 92(3), pages 319-341, August.
    8. Chen, Cathy W.S. & Lee, Sangyeol, 2016. "Generalized Poisson autoregressive models for time series of counts," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 51-67.
    9. Biswas, Atanu & Song, Peter X.-K., 2009. "Discrete-valued ARMA processes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(17), pages 1884-1889, September.
    10. Feigin, Paul D. & Gould, Phillip & Martin, Gael M. & Snyder, Ralph D., 2008. "Feasible parameter regions for alternative discrete state space models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(17), pages 2963-2970, December.
    11. Víctor Enciso‐Mora & Peter Neal & T. Subba Rao, 2009. "Efficient order selection algorithms for integer‐valued ARMA processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 1-18, January.
    12. Wooi Chen Khoo & Seng Huat Ong & Atanu Biswas, 2017. "Modeling time series of counts with a new class of INAR(1) model," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 393-416, June.
    13. Hassan Bakouch & Miroslav Ristić, 2010. "Zero truncated Poisson integer-valued AR(1) model," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 72(2), pages 265-280, September.
    14. Weiß, Christian H., 2008. "The combined INAR(p) models for time series of counts," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(13), pages 1817-1822, September.
    15. Miroslav M. Ristić & Aleksandar S. Nastić & Ana V. Miletić Ilić, 2013. "A geometric time series model with dependent Bernoulli counting series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 466-476, July.
    16. Aleksandar S. Nastić & Petra N. Laketa & Miroslav M. Ristić, 2016. "Random environment integer-valued autoregressive process," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 267-287, March.
    17. Han Li & Zijian Liu & Kai Yang & Xiaogang Dong & Wenshan Wang, 2024. "A pth-order random coefficients mixed binomial autoregressive process with explanatory variables," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 39(5), pages 2581-2604, July.
    18. Shengqi Tian & Dehui Wang & Shuai Cui, 2020. "A seasonal geometric INAR process based on negative binomial thinning operator," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 2561-2581, December.
    19. Martínez-Ovando Juan Carlos & Walker Stephen G., 2011. "Time-series Modelling, Stationarity and Bayesian Nonparametric Methods," Working Papers 2011-08, Banco de México.
    20. Ralph D. Snyder & Gael M. Martin & Phillip Gould & Paul D. Feigin, 2007. "An Assessment of Alternative State Space Models for Count Time Series," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    21. Christian H. Weiß, 2013. "Integer-valued autoregressive models for counts showing underdispersion," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(9), pages 1931-1948, September.
    22. Nastić, Aleksandar S. & Ristić, Miroslav M., 2012. "Some geometric mixed integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(4), pages 805-811.

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