IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jrinsu/v84y2017i4p1203-1230.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Managing Longevity Risk by Implementing Sustainable Full Retirement Age Policies

Author

Listed:
  • Ralph Stevens

Abstract

In this article, we investigate the effect of five policies to link the retirement age to (forecasted) survival probabilities. We investigate the effect of these policies on the distribution of the (future) full retirement age and on longevity risk in the discounted future payments. Our investigated policies effectively hedge longevity risk, but do lead to substantial uncertainty in the retirement age and the expected number of years in retirement. We find that policies based on present values lead to a higher annuity factor than policies based on expected remaining years in retirement. Our results can explain the differences between the proposed automatic rule to adjust the full retirement age in the United Kingdom (defined contribution pension schemes) and the Netherlands (defined benefit pension schemes).

Suggested Citation

  • Ralph Stevens, 2017. "Managing Longevity Risk by Implementing Sustainable Full Retirement Age Policies," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 84(4), pages 1203-1230, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jrinsu:v:84:y:2017:i:4:p:1203-1230
    DOI: 10.1111/jori.12153
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jori.12153
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jori.12153?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Koissi, Marie-Claire & Shapiro, Arnold F. & Hognas, Goran, 2006. "Evaluating and extending the Lee-Carter model for mortality forecasting: Bootstrap confidence interval," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-20, February.
    2. Sweeting, P. J., 2011. "A Trend-Change Extension of the Cairns-Blake-Dowd Model," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 143-162, September.
    3. Ronald Lee & Timothy Miller, 2001. "Evaluating the performance of the lee-carter method for forecasting mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(4), pages 537-549, November.
    4. Olivieri, Annamaria, 2001. "Uncertainty in mortality projections: an actuarial perspective," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 231-245, October.
    5. David Cutler & Angus Deaton & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2006. "The Determinants of Mortality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 97-120, Summer.
    6. Olivieri, Annamaria & Pitacco, Ermanno, 2003. "Solvency requirements for pension annuities," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(2), pages 127-157, July.
    7. Ronald Lee, 2000. "The Lee-Carter Method for Forecasting Mortality, with Various Extensions and Applications," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 80-91.
    8. Stevens, Ralph & De Waegenaere, Anja & Melenberg, Bertrand, 2010. "Longevity risk in pension annuities with exchange options: The effect of product design," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 222-234, February.
    9. Renshaw, A. E. & Haberman, S., 2003. "Lee-Carter mortality forecasting with age-specific enhancement," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 255-272, October.
    10. Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Broeders, Dirk & Mehlkopf, Roel & van Ool, Annick, 2021. "The economics of sharing macro-longevity risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 440-458.
    2. Milevsky, Moshe A., 2020. "Calibrating Gompertz in reverse: What is your longevity-risk-adjusted global age?," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 147-161.
    3. Alonso-García, Jennifer & Devolder, Pierre, 2019. "Continuous time model for notional defined contribution pension schemes: Liquidity and solvency," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 57-76.
    4. Anca-Stefania Jijiie & Jennifer Alonso Garcia & Séverine Arnold (-Gaille), 2019. "Mortality by socio-economic class and its impact on the retirement schemes: How to render the systems fairer?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/300032, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Blake, David & El Karoui, Nicole & Loisel, Stéphane & MacMinn, Richard, 2018. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2015–16 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 157-173.
    2. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2021. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2019-20 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-439.
    3. Lee, Yung-Tsung & Wang, Chou-Wen & Huang, Hong-Chih, 2012. "On the valuation of reverse mortgages with regular tenure payments," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 430-441.
    4. Lanza Queiroz, Bernardo & Lobo Alves Ferreira, Matheus, 2021. "The evolution of labor force participation and the expected length of retirement in Brazil," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    5. Koissi, Marie-Claire & Shapiro, Arnold F., 2006. "Fuzzy formulation of the Lee-Carter model for mortality forecasting," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 287-309, December.
    6. Jennifer L. Wang & H.C. Huang & Sharon S. Yang & Jeffrey T. Tsai, 2010. "An Optimal Product Mix for Hedging Longevity Risk in Life Insurance Companies: The Immunization Theory Approach," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 473-497, June.
    7. Basellini, Ugofilippo & Camarda, Carlo Giovanni & Booth, Heather, 2023. "Thirty years on: A review of the Lee–Carter method for forecasting mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1033-1049.
    8. Man Chung Fung & Gareth W. Peters & Pavel V. Shevchenko, 2016. "A unified approach to mortality modelling using state-space framework: characterisation, identification, estimation and forecasting," Papers 1605.09484, arXiv.org.
    9. Laurent Callot & Niels Haldrup & Malene Kallestrup-Lamb, 2016. "Deterministic and stochastic trends in the Lee–Carter mortality model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(7), pages 486-493, May.
    10. Colin O’hare & Youwei Li, 2017. "Modelling mortality: are we heading in the right direction?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(2), pages 170-187, January.
    11. Olivieri, Annamaria & Pitacco, Ermanno, 2008. "Assessing the cost of capital for longevity risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 1013-1021, June.
    12. Doukhan, P. & Pommeret, D. & Rynkiewicz, J. & Salhi, Y., 2017. "A class of random field memory models for mortality forecasting," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 97-110.
    13. Anja De Waegenaere & Bertrand Melenberg & Ralph Stevens, 2010. "Longevity Risk," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(2), pages 151-192, June.
    14. Börger, Matthias & Schupp, Johannes, 2018. "Modeling trend processes in parametric mortality models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 369-380.
    15. Rachel WINGENBACH & Jong-Min KIM & Hojin JUNG, 2020. "Living Longer in High Longevity Risk," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(1), pages 47-86, March.
    16. Stevens, R.S.P. & De Waegenaere, A.M.B. & Melenberg, B., 2011. "Longevity Risk and Natural Hedge Potential in Portfolios Of Life Insurance Products : The Effect of Investment Risk," Discussion Paper 2011-036, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    17. Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher & Søren Kjærgaard & James E. Oeppen & James W. Vaupel, 2019. "The impact of the choice of life table statistics when forecasting mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(43), pages 1235-1268.
    18. Carlo G. Camarda & Ugofilippo Basellini, 2021. "Smoothing, Decomposing and Forecasting Mortality Rates," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(3), pages 569-602, July.
    19. Stevens, Ralph & De Waegenaere, Anja & Melenberg, Bertrand, 2010. "Longevity risk in pension annuities with exchange options: The effect of product design," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 222-234, February.
    20. Lydia Dutton & Athanasios A. Pantelous & Malgorzata Seklecka, 2020. "The impact of economic growth in mortality modelling for selected OECD countries," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 533-550, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jrinsu:v:84:y:2017:i:4:p:1203-1230. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ariaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.