IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jorssa/v170y2007i4p955-974.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Discrete time, discrete state latent Markov modelling for assessing and predicting household acquisitions of financial products

Author

Listed:
  • Leonard J. Paas
  • Jeroen K. Vermunt
  • Tammo H. A. Bijmolt

Abstract

Summary. The paper demonstrates application of the latent Markov model for assessing developments by individuals through stages of a process. This approach is applied by using a database on ownership of 12 financial products and various demographic variables. The latent Markov model derives latent classes, representing household product portfolios, and shows the relationship between class membership and household demographics. The analysis provides insight into switching between the latent classes, reflecting developments of individual household product portfolios, and the effects of demographics on such switches. Based on this, we formulate equations to predict future acquisitions of financial products. The model accurately predicts which product a specific household unit acquires next, for most of the products.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonard J. Paas & Jeroen K. Vermunt & Tammo H. A. Bijmolt, 2007. "Discrete time, discrete state latent Markov modelling for assessing and predicting household acquisitions of financial products," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 170(4), pages 955-974, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:170:y:2007:i:4:p:955-974
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2007.00478.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2007.00478.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2007.00478.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gatignon, Hubert & Robertson, Thomas S, 1985. "A Propositional Inventory for New Diffusion Research," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 11(4), pages 849-867, March.
    2. Geoffrey Soutar & Steven Cornish-Ward, 1997. "Ownership patterns for durable goods and financial assets: a Rasch analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 903-911.
    3. Leonard J. Paas & Anton A.A. Kuijlen & Theo B.C. Poiesz, 2005. "Acquisition Pattern Analysis for Relationship Marketing: A Conceptual and Methodological Redefinition," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(5), pages 661-673, July.
    4. Bijmolt, T.H.A. & Paas, L.J. & Vermunt, J.K., 2004. "Country and consumer segmentation : Multi-level latent class analysis of financial product ownership," Other publications TiSEM fb506162-d125-4091-9083-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Paul Fearnhead & Loukia Meligkotsidou, 2004. "Exact filtering for partially observed continuous time models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(3), pages 771-789, August.
    6. C. Proctor, 1970. "A probabilistic formulation and statistical analysis of guttman scaling," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 35(1), pages 73-78, March.
    7. Erdem, Tulin & Sun, Baohong, 2001. "Testing for Choice Dynamics in Panel Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 142-152, April.
    8. Francesco Bartolucci & Fulvia Pennoni & Brian Francis, 2007. "A latent Markov model for detecting patterns of criminal activity," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 170(1), pages 115-132, January.
    9. Paas, Leonard J., 1998. "Mokken scaling characteristic sets and acquisition patterns of durable- and financial products," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 353-376, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Dotto & Alessio Farcomeni & Maria Grazia Pittau & Roberto Zelli, 2019. "A dynamic inhomogeneous latent state model for measuring material deprivation," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 182(2), pages 495-516, February.
    2. Fulvia Pennoni & Ewa Genge, 2020. "Analysing the course of public trust via hidden Markov models: a focus on the Polish society," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 29(2), pages 399-425, June.
    3. Wouterse, Bram & Huisman, Martijn & Meijboom, Bert R. & Deeg, Dorly J.H. & Polder, Johan J., 2013. "Modeling the relationship between health and health care expenditures using a latent Markov model," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 423-439.
    4. Luca De Angelis & Leonard J. Paas, 2013. "A dynamic analysis of stock markets using a hidden Markov model," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(8), pages 1682-1700, August.
    5. Marc A. Scott & Kaushik Mohan & Jacques‐Antoine Gauthier, 2020. "Model‐based clustering and analysis of life history data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(3), pages 1231-1251, June.
    6. De Angelis, L & Paas, L.J., 2009. "The dynamic analysis and prediction of stock markets through the latent Markov model," Serie Research Memoranda 0053, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    7. Solomon Zena Walelign & Mariève Pouliot & Helle Overgaard Larsen & Carsten Smith-Hall, 2015. "A novel approach to dynamic livelihood clustering: Empirical evidence from Nepal," IFRO Working Paper 2015/09, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    8. Leonard Paas, 2014. "Comments on: Latent Markov models: a review of a general framework for the analysis of longitudinal data with covariates," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 23(3), pages 473-477, September.
    9. Martino, Andrea & Guatteri, Giuseppina & Paganoni, Anna Maria, 2020. "Hidden Markov Models for multivariate functional data," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    10. Leeflang, Peter S.H. & Bijmolt, Tammo H.A. & van Doorn, Jenny & Hanssens, Dominique M. & van Heerde, Harald J. & Verhoef, Peter C. & Wieringa, Jaap E., 2009. "Creating lift versus building the base: Current trends in marketing dynamics," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 13-20.
    11. Hans Jørn Juhl & Morten H. J. Fenger & John Thøgersen, 2017. "Will the Consistent Organic Food Consumer Step Forward? An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 44(3), pages 519-535.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paas, L.J. & Vermunt, J.K. & Bijmolt, T.H.A., 2007. "Discrete-time discrete-state latent Markov modelling for assessing and predicting household acquisitions of financial products," Other publications TiSEM 5781ab33-6687-4ad5-b57a-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Paas, Leonard J. & Bijmolt, Tammo H.A. & Vermunt, Jeroen K., 2007. "Acquisition patterns of financial products: A longitudinal investigation," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 229-241, April.
    3. Ngwenya, Mthunzi A. & Paas, Leonard J., 2012. "Lifecycle effects on consumer financial product portfolios in South Africa: An exploratory analysis of four ethnic groups," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 8-18.
    4. Samy Mansouri, 2021. "Business cycles influences upon customer cross-buying behavior in the case of financial services," Journal of Financial Services Marketing, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(3), pages 181-201, September.
    5. Paas, L.J. & Bijmolt, T.H.A. & Vermunt, J.K., 2007. "Acquisition patterns of financial products : A longitudinal investigation," Other publications TiSEM 6e60376b-b689-4e76-93b8-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Paas, L.J. & Bijmolt, T.H.A. & Vermunt, J.K., 2004. "Extending dynamic segmentation with lead generation : A latent class Markov analysis of financial product portfolios," Discussion Paper 2004-1, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    7. Bijmolt, T.H.A. & Paas, L.J. & Vermunt, J.K., 2003. "Country and Consumer Segmentation : Multi-Level Latent Class Analysis of Financial Product Ownership," Other publications TiSEM 4fa5ac68-96cf-47ca-bc95-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Paas, L.J. & Bijmolt, T.H.A. & Vermunt, J.K., 2004. "Extending dynamic segmentation with lead generation : A latent class Markov analysis of financial product portfolios," Other publications TiSEM 5c26b098-ff27-42d1-a539-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Oppewal, Harmen & Paas, Leonard J. & Crouch, Geoffrey I. & Huybers, Twan, 2010. "Segmenting consumers based on how they spend a tax rebate: An analysis of the Australian stimulus payment," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 510-519, August.
    10. A. Prinzie & D. Van Den Poel, 2007. "Predicting home-appliance acquisition sequences: Markov/Markov for Discrimination and survival analysis for modeling sequential information in NPTB models," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 07/442, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    11. Ann Yang, 2013. "Decision Making for Individual Investors: A Measurement of Latent Difficulties," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 303-329, December.
    12. Bijmolt, T.H.A. & Paas, L.J. & Vermunt, J.K., 2003. "Country and Consumer Segmentation : Multi-Level Latent Class Analysis of Financial Product Ownership," Discussion Paper 2003-75, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    13. Bijmolt, T.H.A. & Paas, L.J. & Vermunt, J.K., 2004. "Country and consumer segmentation : Multi-level latent class analysis of financial product ownership," Other publications TiSEM fb506162-d125-4091-9083-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Liberali, Guilherme & Gruca, Thomas S. & Nique, Walter M., 2011. "The effects of sensitization and habituation in durable goods markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 212(2), pages 398-410, July.
    15. Anita Gärling & John Thøgersen, 2001. "Marketing of electric vehicles," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 53-65, January.
    16. Eugene C.X. Ikejemba & Peter C. Schuur, 2018. "Analyzing the Impact of Theft and Vandalism in Relation to the Sustainability of Renewable Energy Development Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-17, March.
    17. Wenyao Zhang & Qingpu Zhang, 2017. "Exploring Antecedent Difference between Early and Late Adopters of Disruptive Innovation in E-business Microcredit Context: Evidence from China," International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management (IJITM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(06), pages 1-29, December.
    18. Hector J. Villarreal & Ricardo Cantú, "undated". "Do Walmartians Ruled? The political power of an emerging middle class in Mexico," Working Papers 20081, Escuela de Graduados en Administración Pública y Políticas Públicas, Campus Monterrey, revised Jun 2007.
    19. McKinley, Trevelyan J. & Ross, Joshua V. & Deardon, Rob & Cook, Alex R., 2014. "Simulation-based Bayesian inference for epidemic models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 434-447.
    20. Deepa Chandrasekaran & Gerard J. Tellis, 2008. "Global Takeoff of New Products: Culture, Wealth, or Vanishing Differences?," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(5), pages 844-860, 09-10.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:170:y:2007:i:4:p:955-974. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rssssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.