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Information Acquisition and Choice Under Uncertainty

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  • Isabelle Brocas
  • Juan D. Carrillo

Abstract

This paper presents a model where individuals have imperfect information and there is an opportunity cost of learning. It shows that the endogenous decision to collect costly information before taking an action has a systematic effect on choices. More precisely, consider two alternatives with ex ante identical expected payoff but different variances. The model predicts that, after the learning process is stopped, a majority of individuals will select the alternative with largest payoff‐variance. The result persists when agents have multiple sources of information. Applications to entrepreneurial investments, composition of advisory committees, and judicial decision‐making are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Isabelle Brocas & Juan D. Carrillo, 2009. "Information Acquisition and Choice Under Uncertainty," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 423-455, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jemstr:v:18:y:2009:i:2:p:423-455
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1530-9134.2009.00219.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Godfrey Keller & Sven Rady, 1999. "Optimal Experimentation in a Changing Environment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 66(3), pages 475-507.
    2. Isabelle Brocas & Juan D. Carrillo, 2007. "Influence through ignorance," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 38(4), pages 931-947, December.
    3. Antonio E. Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2001. "On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 301-330, September.
    4. Dan Lovallo & Colin Camerer, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Francisco Silva, 2017. "Inducing Overconfidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 451-460, January.
    2. Kylymnyuk, Dmytro & Wagner, Alexander K., 2012. "Commitment through risk," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 295-297.
    3. Francesco Sobbrio, 2012. "A Citizen-Editors Model of News Media," RSCAS Working Papers 2012/61, European University Institute.
    4. repec:ctc:serie1:def5 is not listed on IDEAS

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