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The Quality of Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts During the Asian Crisis: Evidence from Singapore

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  • Roger K. Loh
  • Mujtaba Mian

Abstract

We bring together three disparate strands of literature to develop a comprehensive empirical framework to examine the efficiency of security analysts' earnings forecasts in Singapore. We focus specifically on how the increased uncertainty and the negative market sentiment during the period of the Asian crisis affected the quality of earnings forecasts. While we find no evidence of inefficiencies in the pre‐crisis period, our results suggest that after the onset of the crisis, analysts (1) issued forecasts that were systematically upward biased; (2) did not fully incorporate the (negative) earnings‐related news; and (3) predicted earnings changes which proved too extreme.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger K. Loh & Mujtaba Mian, 2003. "The Quality of Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts During the Asian Crisis: Evidence from Singapore," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5‐6), pages 749-770, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:30:y:2003:i:5-6:p:749-770
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-5957.05443
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Amir, Eli & Ganzach, Yoav, 1998. "Overreaction and underreaction in analysts' forecasts," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 333-347, November.
    2. Kang, Sh & Obrien, J & Sivaramakrishnan, K, 1994. "Analysts Interim Earnings Forecasts - Evidence On The Forecasting Process," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 103-112.
    3. Bernard, Vl, 1987. "Cross-Sectional Dependence And Problems In Inference In Market-Based Accounting Research," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 1-48.
    4. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1839-1885 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Stickel, Se, 1990. "Predicting Individual Analyst Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 409-417.
    6. Abarbanell, Jeffrey S & Bernard, Victor L, 1992. "Tests of Analysts' Overreaction/Underreaction to Earnings Information as an Explanation for Anomalous Stock Price Behavior," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1181-1207, July.
    7. John C. Easterwood & Stacey R. Nutt, 1999. "Inefficiency in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts: Systematic Misreaction or Systematic Optimism?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1777-1797, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Siyi Liu & Xin Liu & Chuancai Zhang & Lingli Zhang, 2023. "Institutional and individual investors' short‐term reactions to the COVID‐19 crisis in China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(4), pages 4333-4355, December.
    2. Kepsu, Mikko & Schadewitz, Hannu & Vieru, Markku, 2008. "Performance of Analyst's Earnings Forecasting - Evidence from the Finnish Emerging Markets 1987-2005," Discussion Papers 1160, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    3. Leif W. Lundmark & Chong Oh & J. Cameron Verhaal, 2017. "A little Birdie told me: Social media, organizational legitimacy, and underpricing in initial public offerings," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 19(6), pages 1407-1422, December.
    4. Osman Yukselturk & Jon Tucker, 2015. "The impact of analyst sentiment on UK stock recommendations and target prices," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6-7), pages 869-904, December.
    5. de Zwart, G.J. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2008. "The Inefficient Use of Macroeconomic Information in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts in Emerging Markets," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2008-007-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    6. Chang-Yi Hsu & Jean Yu & Shiow-Ying Wen, 2013. "The Analysts' Forecast of IPO Firms during the Global Financial Crisis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(3), pages 673-682.
    7. Leif W. Lundmark & Chong Oh & J. Cameron Verhaal, 0. "A little Birdie told me: Social media, organizational legitimacy, and underpricing in initial public offerings," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-16.

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