IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/coacre/v13y1996i2p435-456.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Interdependent Use of Earnings and Dividends in Financial Analysts' Earnings Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • KIRSTEN M. ELY
  • VIVEK MANDE

Abstract

. This paper examines how analysts combine earnings and dividend information when they predict future earnings. Because both earnings and dividends are noisy indications of future earnings, we posit that analysts use the two corroboratively, to confirm the information reflected in each, and that analysts will substitute away from earnings when it is noisy and toward dividends. Using regressions of analysts' earnings forecast revisions on unexpected earnings, unexpected dividends, and five variables that reflect whether the signs of unexpected earnings and dividends confirm or contradict each other, we find evidence of both corroboration and substitution. Analysts' earnings forecast revisions are significantly related to the five corroborative variables, and this relation has statistically significant explanatory power beyond that in the magnitudes of unexpected earnings and unexpected dividends. Consistent with expectations, we find that the evidence of corroboration varies across the noisiness of earnings information; there is more evidence of corroboration when earnings are more variable. We also find evidence consistent with analysts substituting away from earnings, toward dividend information for firms with noisy earnings information (high variance). Overall, the results imply that analysts use earnings and dividend information interdependently, with some interdependency determined by the noisiness of earnings announcements. Résumé. Les auteurs examinent comment les analystes combinent l'information relative aux bénéfices et aux dividendes pour prévoir les bénéfices futurs. Les bénéfices et les dividendes étant tous deux des indicateurs imparfaits des bénéfices futurs, les auteurs posent l'hypothèse que les analystes utilisent les deux, à titre corroboratif, pour confirmer l'information que livre chacun de ces indicateurs et qu'ils préféreront les dividendes aux bénéfices, si ces derniers se révèlent un indicateur imparfait. En procédant à la régression des révisions des prévisions de bénéfices des analystes sur les bénéfices imprévus, sur les dividendes imprévus et sur cinq variables indiquant si les pronostics de bénéfices et de dividendes imprévus se confirment ou s'infirment les uns les autres, les auteurs enregistrent des données qui vont à la fois dans le sens de la corroboration et de la substitution. Les révisions des prévisions de bénéfices des analystes présentent une relation significative avec les cinq variables de corroboration, relation qui affiche un pouvoir d'explication statistiquement significatif, au†delà de celui de l'ampleur des bénéfices imprévus et des dividendes imprévus. Conformément aux prévisions, les auteurs constatent que la preuve de corroboration varie selon le degré d'imperfection de l'information relative aux bénéfices; les preuves de corroboration sont plus fortes lorsque les bénéfices varient davantage. Les auteurs font également état de constatations conformes à l'hypothèse selon laquelle les ana lystes écartent l'information relative aux bénéfices pour y substituer l'information relative aux dividendes dans le cas d'entreprises dont l'information relative aux bénéfices est imparfaite (variance élevée). Dans l'ensemble, les résultats invitent à la conclusion que les analystes utilisent l'information relative aux bénéfices et aux dividendes de manière interdépendante, une partie de cette interdépendance étant déterminée par l'imperfection de l'information communiquée en ce qui a trait aux bénéfices.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirsten M. Ely & Vivek Mande, 1996. "The Interdependent Use of Earnings and Dividends in Financial Analysts' Earnings Forecasts," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(2), pages 435-456, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:coacre:v:13:y:1996:i:2:p:435-456
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1911-3846.1996.tb00510.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1911-3846.1996.tb00510.x
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1911-3846.1996.tb00510.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ali, A & Zarowin, P, 1992. "The Role Of Earnings Levels In Annual Earnings Returns Studies," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 286-296.
    2. Freeman, Rn & Tse, Sy, 1992. "A Nonlinear Model Of Security Price Responses To Unexpected Earnings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 185-209.
    3. Atiase, Rk, 1985. "Predisclosure Information, Firm Capitalization, And Security Price Behavior Around Earnings Announcements," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 21-36.
    4. Teets, W, 1992. "The Association Between Stock-Market Responses To Earnings Announcements And Regulation Of Electric Utilities," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 274-285.
    5. Kang, Sh & Obrien, J & Sivaramakrishnan, K, 1994. "Analysts Interim Earnings Forecasts - Evidence On The Forecasting Process," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 103-112.
    6. Abarbanell, Jeffrey S & Bernard, Victor L, 1992. "Tests of Analysts' Overreaction/Underreaction to Earnings Information as an Explanation for Anomalous Stock Price Behavior," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1181-1207, July.
    7. Kane, Alex & Lee, Young Ki & Marcus, Alan, 1984. "Earnings and Dividend Announcements: Is There a Corroboration Effect?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1091-1099, September.
    8. Brown, Ld & Richardson, Gd & Schwager, Sj, 1987. "An Information Interpretation Of Financial Analyst Superiority In Forecasting Earnings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 49-67.
    9. Kim, O & Verrecchia, Re, 1991. "Trading Volume And Price Reactions To Public Announcements," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 302-321.
    10. Ofer, Aharon R & Siegel, Daniel R, 1987. "Corporate Financial Policy, Information, and Market Expectations: An Empirical Investigation of Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(4), pages 889-911, September.
    11. Ball, R & Brown, P, 1968. "Empirical Evaluation Of Accounting Income Numbers," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 159-178.
    12. Ohlson, James A., 1989. "Ungarbled earnings and dividends : An analysis and extension of the Beaver, Lambert, and Morse valuation model," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2-3), pages 109-115, July.
    13. Bamber, Ls, 1986. "The Information-Content Of Annual Earnings Releases - A Trading Volume Approach," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 40-56.
    14. Freeman, Robert N., 1987. "The association between accounting earnings and security returns for large and small firms," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 195-228, July.
    15. Stickel, Se, 1990. "Predicting Individual Analyst Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 409-417.
    16. Mendenhall, Rr, 1991. "Evidence On The Possible Underweighting Of Earnings-Related Information," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 170-179.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Roger Best & Ronald Best, 2000. "Earnings expectations and the relative information content of dividend and earnings announcements," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 24(3), pages 232-245, September.
    2. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    3. Vivek Mande & Richard G. File & Wikil Kwak, 2000. "Income Smoothing and Discretionary R&D Expenditures of Japanese Firms," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(2), pages 263-302, June.
    4. Peter Roosenboom, 2007. "How Do Underwriters Value Initial Public Offerings? An Empirical Analysis of the French IPO Market," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(4), pages 1217-1243, December.
    5. Wang, Jiaxin & Cheng, Ruonan & Huang, Yong & Yan, Chao, 2023. "The pre-IPO dividend and IPO underpricing: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    2. Mohamed Sellami, 2006. "Typologie des déterminants comptables de la valeur : Apports de l'approche économique de l'information dans la mesure de la valeur," Post-Print halshs-00558252, HAL.
    3. Ball, Ray & Bartov, Eli, 1996. "How naive is the stock market's use of earnings information?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 319-337, June.
    4. repec:grz:wpsses:2020-04 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Charles G. Ham & Zachary R. Kaplan & Zawadi R. Lemayian, 2022. "Rationalizing forecast inefficiency," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 313-343, March.
    6. Byung T. Ro, 1989. "Earnings news and the firm size effect," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(1), pages 177-195, September.
    7. Ryan, Paul, 2005. "The market impact of directors' trades: relationship to various measures of a firm's information environment," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 319-337.
    8. Ham, Charles G. & Kaplan, Zachary R. & Leary, Mark T., 2020. "Do dividends convey information about future earnings?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 547-570.
    9. Ray Ball & Lakshmanan Shivakumar, 2008. "How Much New Information Is There in Earnings?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(5), pages 975-1016, December.
    10. Blankespoor, Elizabeth & deHaan, Ed & Marinovic, Iván, 2020. "Disclosure processing costs, investors’ information choice, and equity market outcomes: A review," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2).
    11. Terry Shevlin & D. Shores, 1993. "Firm Size, Security Returns, and Unexpected Earnings: The Anomalous Signed†Size Effect," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(1), pages 1-30, September.
    12. Jeffrey T. Doyle & Russell J. Lundholm & Mark T. Soliman, 2006. "The Extreme Future Stock Returns Following I/B/E/S Earnings Surprises," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5), pages 849-887, December.
    13. Yezegel, Ari, 2015. "Why do analysts revise their stock recommendations after earnings announcements?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 163-181.
    14. Simon Hussain, 1998. "Lead indicator models and UK analysts' earnings forecasts," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 271-280.
    15. Paul-Valentin Ngobo & Jean-François Casta & Olivier J. Ramond, 2012. "Is customer satisfaction a relevant metric for financial analysts?," Post-Print halshs-00680003, HAL.
    16. Howard Chan & Robert Faff & Alan Ramsay, 2005. "Firm Size and the Information Content of Annual Earnings Announcements: Australian Evidence," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1‐2), pages 211-253, January.
    17. Das, Somnath & King, Alexander Z., 2021. "Measuring the informativeness of earnings announcements: The role of event windows," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 350-367.
    18. Anwer S. Ahmed & Minsup Song & Douglas E. Stevens, 2009. "Earnings characteristics and analysts’ differential interpretation of earnings announcements: An empirical analysis," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 49(2), pages 223-246, June.
    19. Mustafa Ciftci, 2010. "Accounting Choice and Earnings Quality: The Case of Software Development," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 429-459.
    20. Zhang, Qi & Cai, Charlie X. & Keasey, Kevin, 2013. "Market reaction to earnings news: A unified test of information risk and transaction costs," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 251-266.
    21. Kathryn E. Easterday & Pradyot K. Sen, 2023. "Another look at the dividend-price relationship in the accounting valuation framework," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 879-925, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:coacre:v:13:y:1996:i:2:p:435-456. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1911-3846 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.